Bayareaguy
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Posts posted by Bayareaguy
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A chart I made from data as of last week. It hasn't changed much since then. What the data says is if your NOA1 was before July 18 or so, you likely already have your NOA2. If it is after, you likely don't yet. The NOA 2's are just tricking in at roughly 10% of those submitted.
Here's a look at NOA approvals (a nice chart from Andreea&Kevin)
If you want to read why, here is the thread:
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I assume you already got your first Notice of Advice (NOA1), a few days after filing. Well, the waiting time until NOA2 (Approval) takes normally at least 5 months; sometimes longer than that. You can check on the USCIS site, and other members' timelines here to have a better idea on average waiting times.
If you received your NOA1 in September/October, you'll get your NOA2 soon now
Ummmm, for CSC, by the way they have been processing July/august NOA1s, a september NOA1 is not likely to get their NOA2 soon.
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Look at the data, and judge for yourself:
http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/414397-csc-seems-take-longer-to-process/page__fromsearch__1
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Yea, that makes the 4th VJ August NOA1->NOA2 this month for CSC. The CSC is just wicked fast with their processing.
Oh, that's right, were just in a "normal" slow period that happens from time to time
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Last year VSC was taking forever, now it seems that the pendulum has swung to the other side.
It's more than that...it is likely because of the high volume of DACA cases CSC is processing. And don't take my word for it, look at the data and decide for yourself.
http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/414397-csc-seems-take-longer-to-process/page__fromsearch__1
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You can file an e-request when you hit the 6 month mark, at least that's when it allowed me to submit one.
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It's not the Dream Act, but work permits for children of illegal immigrants, UCSIS has received almost a million application since last summer, big bummer.
Expect, based on Igor's List of updated NOA2 timetables, to get approved within 190 and 225 days.
I call it "getting the DACA shaft"
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“Real reform means strong border security … Real reform means establishing a responsible pathway to earned citizenship—a path that includes passing a background check, paying taxes and a meaningful penalty, learning English, and going to the back of the line behind the folks trying to come here legally.”
Heh, to the back of the line, but go ahead and cut in front of the K1 applicants.
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It is like this all the time, csc slows down and Vermont seems to be the faster one and everyone wishes their paperwork was with Vermont. Then a few months later its the other way around. That is uscis for you.
I was in the same situation last year, I was an august 2011 filer and it took 200 days to get a noa2 from csc. Then after I got it csc seemed to pick up speed and Vermont was slacking. Welcome to the frustration of immigration..
But if you look at the data, it is not same situation. CSC is processing 1/10 the K1's now than they were at the same time last year, during the "slow down". Your "slowdown" was processing 90% more I-129F's.
So tell me again how tough you had it.
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I really don't know if DACA is the reason or not. My only bone in this is I am an August CSC K1 filer. But the evidence is compelling.
I would like to see the deniers present evidence to the contrary, to back up their opinions.
I'll wait right here.
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I think the original poster should definitely call and talk to a Tier 2 agent and ask if they have any information as to what is going on with the I-129Fs. Anyone out there already ask this question to the Tier 2 agents?
The reason appears to be the I-129F filers are feeling the DACA "shaft".
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What choice do we have, my friend.
Yep, waiting and venting.
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I'll play.
CSC has a time span of 25 days to process 15 cases (01/17 - 02/11)
VSC has a time span of only 7 days to process 15 cases (02/07 - 02/14)
That is what is distressing the frak out of me.
Yep, sobering facts. Those deniers who state "it happens every year, bla bla bla" don't really make me feel any better. I'd like to see where the NOA2's have been this low before.
I'll wait right here.
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So it's the Dream Act's fault. Whose fault was it last year? And the year before that? And the year before?
I'll let you make your own judgement from this info.
To me it's pretty clear there is a direct connection between the CSC and DACA. Just as DACA got really going in October, K1 NOA2's here on VJ fell off to almost nothing. CSC has had slow periods before but nothing like this. If you can show me on the timelines here or anywhere else a worse 5 month period, I'd love to see it.
I'll add this chart:
I'd like to see the prior year data where approvals percentages fall off the cliff like they have after mid July NOA1's....it sure looks like something happened to K1 approvals.
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Someone gave me a link to the this stats page which might make you feel a little more hopeful. It looks like right now they are completing processing on I-129Fs filed from late July to mid-August. You can check it every few days and see the new approvals roll in and get an idea how it is progressing.
http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/monthly_filers.php?form=1&visa=1&scenter=1&option=3&sortby=2
Based on that, you could get approved today or a few weeks from now, but probably not much longer than that.
The thing is, these are only a few Noa2s in the last week or so, only about 10% of the noa1s filed in the same time frame (late July-August). I know, I've been watching them closely. They are just barely trickling in. To say they look to be completing processing of the 129F's in this time frame is a stretch.
And believe me, I wish they would be processing them now as an August filer myself, but the number of reported Noa2's is not indicating this as of this moment. Perhaps they will soon be completing the applications, and we'll see a flood of NOA2's comming out, but I am not holding my breath.
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Next?
Wait.
And I think the estimates of 5-6 months are being pretty optimistic.
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I would suggest you not to flood USCIS with even more paperwork, slowing everything down for everyone else.
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I need help I see on VJ timeline that July appliers and even some of
Aug appliers have gotten there NOA2 I am a July 27th and still waiting they have been telling me since dec. that there are working on July 17 cases seriously 2 months on 1 day I'm going crazy!!
Most NOA1 after July 20th have not gotten NOA2s. You'll likely be in for more of a wait.
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Just kidding --- The truth is - that most applications will be processed in that timeframe of 190-210 days (all days as stated above)
False.
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Yea based on Igor's List, hopefully you will hear something in the next 10-30 days
Igor don't know $#!+
According to my list, you are in for a longer wait, but I hope I'm wrong.
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Anyone notice on the case status page it is now saying "expect 35-40 days between your case being received and it's appearance on the case status page"? Mine was on there the same day when I got my receipt email, and there was no such message before. They are getting overwhelmed. Here's hoping it's quite temporary.
Unless there is a massive turnaround, I think this will last quite a while.
waiting time
in K-1 Fiance(e) Visa Case Filing and Progress Reports
Posted
Here's another look at the VJ timeline data, CSC number of NOA1, NOA2 received, and as a % for the months of May 2012-september2012.
Since december 1, 2012, there have been an average of 15 NOA2's processed a month. You can see the NOA1 are coming in at a bit over 100/month.
So doing the math, and using the assumption that they will be processed in order (which they are not), by the current NOA2 approval rate of 15 per month, 80% of july filers will get their NOA2 by the end of april, 80% of august filers will get their NOA2 by the end of August, and 80% of september filers will get their NOA2 by January 2014.
So, I really do hope the NOA2 processing kicks it up a few notches. No sign of that yet.