Bayareaguy

Data harvesters are notorious for not being able to distinguish between personal statements and observational facts. Sad state of the world that I even have to think this way

Aye, the waiting can drive you mad

Hahahahah. I wonder how wise that kind of statement is online, Bayareaguy.

It's not a personal statement, it is an observational fact.

Having received NOA1 on 8/6, we were hoping for a NOA2 in December. Foolish us! We'll be lucky if we hear something in March.

You're a "dreamer".

Still slow.

You are what you make of it.

She got to leave without the CFO counseling.

USCIS is self funded, but supposedly some supporting agencies will be affected. We wont know for sure till it happens.

I just hope they realize they are dealing with peoples lives here. People have done extreme acts for much less than being kept from their loved ones.

In the grand tradition of worrying about something that has not yet happened, and something that we can do nothing about if/when it does happen. . .

Any theories out there about how the upcoming sequester will affect our K-1 NOA2 waiting times? Might it also affect embassy interview schedules after NOA2?

Somehow, I would think that these types of files will be given very low priority in a sequestered government. USCIS will probably see more than its fair share of furloughs.

Just something else to worry about while we wait.

I got NOA1 on Sept 24.

Lagi,.. i texted you, wray ka magreply.. Sana ma approve kamu daun. It would have been better if naaproved an am daun, resign na unta ak yana hehe.

It wont be long for you Reg

OK, here is my predicted Completed I-129F (NOA2) for CSC Dec-Feb. Of course, this is a guess, .based on VJ data, and some assumptions of error, as well as a factor (guess) on delay of updating timelines:

It should drop way down in december.

Now since I have estimated the completed applications, I can also estimate the all others pending, based on the last value in November, adding the average # of received applications, and subtracting the completions:

When I did that, I see a possible reason why CSC completions are lagging compared to VSC (besides the DACA effect, which may or may not be a factor). Since the VSC's "all others pending" pile is a lot larger than CSC's pile (~18,000 vs 10,000, respectively in Nov2012), perhaps they (some high up in USCIS) wants to see more parity between the service centers, so instead of bringing VSC numbers down by working harder on completing VSC applications, the easier way is to have less people working on CSC applications to get their number higher.

I'm not sure I really buy that, but I'm just throwing that out there.

Got RFE also just today,... still guessing what it is, we thought we did it complete, i hope it is just an easy request..Hoping to get the hard copy the soonest.! Hope yours too.

sana makuha mo na an RFE para maka reply ka na para hit imo NOA2

I am a little surprised no one has written a script yet to pull out all the data out of the system using receipt numbers. Decrement or increment your receipt number provides someone else's statement... Of course, I don't particularly want them to pull down the checker (so don't actually do so), but folks are already doing it manually... Perhaps a pooling of people's manual lookups would provide a better coverage for the data.

Wow, I didn't realize that about the receipt numbers. I just checked a bunch before my number, and none had NOA2s.

Haha, a script is quite a bit beyond my capabilities, I just cut and paste columns on excel. I like the idea about populating a database. Then you would have a sample of the actual data instead of the self reported VJ data (which I still think is fine for seing the basic trends occurring).

There is hope for VSC filers. For CSC, not so much ... Unless you are a denier.

See post 13 for further info here: http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/415853-the-differences-between-csc-and-vsc-noa-2s/page__pid__5999299#entry5999299

OK, there seems to be some confusion on how this data was arrived at, or that if this data even exists from USCIS (it does).

Also, I am not expecting anyone to take my word on this, if you are skeptical, I encourage you to look at the data yourself, and come to your own logical conclusion.

From the USCIS web page, the chart with their data (only updated to Nov 2012): http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=6&office=2&charttype=1

it shows the national average, and the CSC data in a chart below (make sure to scroll down).

You can change the service center by the tabs, as well as form type (the link is for I-129F, CSC, which is one of the data sets I am using).

The raw data used to derive these charts (and what I used in my charts) is here (also is a link on the lower left corner of the graph, csv format): http://dashboard.uscis.gov/csvfiles/I-129-F_California-Service-Center_Trend-Chart.csv

The data is arranged per month, so it shows "Receipts" which is the NOA1 ("On xxxx xx, 20xx, we received this I129F PETITION FOR FIANCE(E)") and "completions" (NOA2) they have completed that month. Those completions are not the same petitions as the ones received in that month, they are only the data of each type processed in a given month.

The all other pending are the amount of petitions outstanding, that is receipts (NOA1) that are not completed yet (NOA2). The awaiting customer action are RFE's. That number seems high, and in fact doesn't jibe with VJ data, but there is an explanation for that: VJ users have been thoroughly prepped to send in a complete application. Do you think you may have recieved an RFE if you didn't use VJ (or another resource on the internet)?

Now for some reason, there are some on VJ who, unbelievably, don't acknowledge the existence of this data. They seem to have some kind of agenda to keep you uninformed. They also downplay the significance of VJ data. I really don't know what their intentions are...perhaps they don't want to have people see that CSC is slower than VSC, and has been since December. What ever their intentions are, it is very un-american, and I don't like it.

The data is there, you are free to use it...or not use it. Your choice.

And in fact, I am going to try to predict the USCIS NOA2 numbers that will occur for Dec-feb (later today, after I get back from the beach and have time to analyze the error between VJ and USCIS data).

The column "All other pending" is the float, that is the people who have NOA1 (receipts) but are waiting for their NOA2 (completions) at any given month

Yes, the data is per the month the data occurs, so receipts is in the month they got the NOA1, where as completions is the month they got NOA2. So in any given months data, the completions got their NOA1 on some earlier month. It isn't saying that the completions were happening on the same month as the receipts.

Theres this http://dashboard.uscis.gov/ but it just shows number processed per month, not approvals.

Receipts means NOA1. Completions mean NOA2.

Click the CSV button to download the raw data.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=6&office=2&charttype=1

Hold on for the bad news...there is no such thing.

Use the site search to find "Igor's List" which is what you refer to.

Igor's list provides updates of timelines of people that sign up for Igor's list AND update their timeline. Igor's list is a tiny fraction of the petitions being processed. Hundreds of petitions could be approved and not "hit" anyone on Igor's list. And if the approved people do not update their timeline it would not matter anyway.

USCIS has no such site.

It can be used as a broad gauge (ie., "they are beginning to work on April, 2012" for example) but not much else.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=6&office=2&charttype=1

You seem to have some kind of agenda for people to not look at the data, which is a dis-service to the VJ members. But whatever.

Every time I see one of these posts, I look with anticipation, and then say "aww, it's just a VSC NOA2".

But congratulations...it must feel good.

I feel you. It seems odd to me how CSC process applications but I guess we will just have to wait a little bit more.

I have a few other choice words besides "odd" to describe their process.

It has been 206 days now since our last NOA-1. Anybody out there in the same boat? Why the delay and why some received their approval faster than anyone else. Why are applications not handled in proper order? I have so many Whys!

Yes, a majority of filers in your time frame are in the same boat.

Some are getting processed, but it becomes more delayed as time goes on (as in they are processing less applications than are submitted). But you may be one of the lucky ones.

Why? It's a government department, for one....

Kind of like how CSC's processing time average is 5.5 months and VSC is 6.1 months yet the national average is 7.9 months? Seems to me like someone failed elementary math...

Yep...these are the people we are paying with our fees...you can tell they hired the cream of the crop

I'm curious if anybody knows where the CSC is located.

I fully agree with you Bayareaguy. Not only am I sitting here waiting to be reunited with my love, but our son (another citizen BTW) is growing up without me. I am just glad that I am professionally and financially stable enough that I get to go visit them every 3 or 4 months. I feel really bad for those folks who don't have that luxury.

As a matter of fact, it's been almost exactly 1 year since I've seen my fiance and her children.

And for the record, I really don't care if DACA is or is not causing the slowdown in CSC I-129F processing. My point is, there is a slow down, and it isn't right. All the application types should be processed in a fair and even manner, and for what ever reason, we have been getting the shaft, with no end in sight.

When CSC VJ data starts showing a few NOA2's a day, then it will be hopeful. Until then, this pretty much sucks, other than for the few who are getting their NOA 2's in a timely manner.

My getting approved should instill hope, not bitterness. Stay strong fellow VJers, it will happen!

I'm happy for you. But it doesn't change the fact that a majority of the CSC applications after mid July are in the crapper.

Maybe tomorrow it will turn around.

Maybe next week.

Maybe...maybe...maybe...