The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Probably Think

[TBoneTX 49,801]

Long, but understandable and captivatingly fascinating.  Listen or read.

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The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Probably Think

 

[...] "Only two things are important right now in life: fertility and deep learning," the University of Pennsylvania economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde said at the conclusion of a recent lecture.  "Everything else is noise.  Once you start thinking about these, it's hard to start thinking about anything else."

 

In today's interview, Fernández-Villaverde explains:

 

• Demographics 101: Defining total fertility rate, replacement rate, and momentum

• Why the world has probably already passed "peak child"

• Why 2023 was the first year in human history that the global fertility rate likely fell below the replacement rate

• Why the question "why is the birthrate declining?" is so hard to answer quickly

• Why most people underrate the long-term effects of low birthrates on world affairs

• The compounding effects of sub-replacement level fertility:  "If Thailand keeps its current fertility rate of 0.8 for the next 200 years without immigration, its population will decline from 63 million to 2 million."  [...]

 

https://www.derekthompson.org/p/why-the-whole-world-stopped-having

[Ban Hammer 15,229]

items not mentioned are microplastics and declining sperm rates - both of which are probably connected and a major part of this too.

[Dashinka 26,735]

There are way to many factors involved and those factors vary from country to country.  I was just in the ROK, and a lot of folks talk about it, but not much is done about it.  I did meet with my younger friends who recently had a son, not sure if they are going for number two or not, time will tell.

[TBoneTX 49,801]

4 hours ago, Dashinka said:

my younger friends who recently had a son

They are probably remarkable purely for this.

4 hours ago, Dashinka said:

a lot of folks talk about it, but not much is done about it

Did you get any sense of what's being done that's most effective, or "least ineffective"?

[Dashinka 26,735]

50 minutes ago, TBoneTX said:

They are probably remarkable purely for this.

Did you get any sense of what's being done that's most effective, or "least ineffective"?

Most recent thing I can find.  One of the biggest factors there is women establishing careers, and not having children until later in life.  Of course this is not specific to the ROK as this happens a lot all over the developed world, although in Korea it is very difficult to make ends meet without two incomes.

 

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/southkorea/society/20231231/korea-to-expand-baby-bonuses-housing-support-to-fight-worlds-lowest-fertility-rate