Clinton opens up lead over Obama in new poll

[no name 1]

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has notably widened her lead over her closest competitor in the 2008 Democratic presidential race, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, according to a new national USA Today/Gallup Poll released Monday night.

The survey, following a high-profile spat between the two candidats over who is better suited to handle foreign policy, shows Clinton at 48 percent -- a 22-point lead over Obama. Clinton's support is up 8 percentage points from a similar poll conducted three weeks ago, while Obama, at 26 percent, is down 2 percentage points. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards stands at 12 percent.

"[Voters are] taking a good hard look at all the candidates and concluding that Hillary has what it takes to be president and what it takes to take on the Republicans," wrote Mark Penn, a top strategist to the New York Democrat, in a memo to supporters Monday. "They know that Hillary Clinton has the experience and strength to bring about real change."

Clinton's boost could be the result of the two candidates' recent quarrel over one of Obama's answers at the CNN/YouTube Debate last month. Obama said he would meet with world leaders openly hostile to the United States during his first year as president, while Clinton said she would only do so after a set of preconditions had been agreed to.

Clinton later called Obama's answer "naive" -- a critique that may have struck a cord with her party's base. Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents now significantly favor Clinton to handle terrorism, the Iraq war and relations with "nations that are unfriendly to the United States."

Meanwhile, Obama's campaign sought to reassure supporters Monday that the Illinois senator remains a top Democratic frontrunner in the White House race, calling national polls "irrelevant."

"While the Washington insiders focus on irrelevant and wildly inconsistent national polls, there are strong signs in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina of the growing power and potential of this candidacy," David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, wrote in a memo.

In addition to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, two other recent national polls indicate a large gap between Clinton and Obama. A Newsweek poll suggests Clinton holds a 23-point lead, while the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll put the lead at 21 points.

In early primary and caucus states like New Hampshire and Iowa, however, some polls show Clinton, Obama and former Sen. John Edwards virtually tied. And other state polls show Clinton with a lead, but one far smaller than national surveys like the latest USA Today/Gallup, Newsweek and NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls.

"We fundamentally reject the importance of these national primary polls," Plouffe added. "This is a sequential process that begins in Iowa and carries through the calendar. If national polls were affecting our ability to grow the campaign, perhaps we would pay them some attention. But they have not, so we don't."

The poll also measured a stable Republican race, registering former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani at 33 percent, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, not yet a declared candidate, at 21 percent, Arizona Sen. John McCain at 16 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 8 percent.

The poll, conducted August 3-5, surveyed 490 Democratic leaning voters and 405 Republican leaning voters. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Source

[almaty 19]

i am glad Obama is falling behind..he needs to stay in the senate and represent Illinois/.//

[GaryC 7]

I also hope that Clinton will get the dem nomination. She is in a virtual tie with the reps. Oboma at this moment would win.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...t/national.html

Here is a little story from Rasmussen:

Election 2008: Clinton Virtually Tied with GOP Frontrunners Giuliani, Thompson

Thursday, August 02, 2007

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Senator Hillary Clinton is pulling away from the field in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination but remains weaker than other major Democratic contenders in match-ups with top Republicans.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone shows former Big Apple Mayor Rudy Giuliani with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over the former First Lady, 46% to 45%. Former U.S. Senator Fred Thompson posts exactly the same numbers when matched against Clinton. It’s Thompson 46% Clinton 45%.

In June, Clinton was a point ahead of Giuliani and even with Thompson.

Like other Democratic candidates, Senator Clinton has gained ground on Giuliani in recent months. Since April, in poll after poll, Clinton and Giuliani have been separated by a point at most. But fellow Democrats are doing better. Former Senator John Edwards can now boast a seven-point lead over the mayor, Senator Obama has a six-point lead over him.

The same comparison obtains in match-ups with Senator Thompson, who is even with Giuliani in the GOP nomination race. While Clinton and Thompson have been close each time we ask about that match-up, Obama leads Thompson by six. Senator Edwards can still wrest a double-digit lead over Thompson.

These data reflect the stability and strength of opinions both good and bad about Clinton. She is very popular with Democrats, but burdened by a high unfavorable rating in more mixed company. She is now viewed favorably by 82% of Democrats, and Very Favorably by 43%.

But, when the question is asked of all voters, the former First Lady is viewed favorably by just 49% and unfavorably by 48%. That latter figure includes 34% with a Very Unfavorable opinion (nearly half of all voters say they will definitely vote against Clinton if she is on the ballot in 2008).

From an ideological perspective, Democrats see little difference between Clinton and Obama. But, 78% of Republicans see Clinton as politically liberal while only 55% say the same about Obama. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 49% see Clinton is liberal. Thirty-six percent (36%) of unaffiliateds see Obama as politically liberal.

Because she is so well-known, opinions about Clinton are less likely to shift dramatically during a campaign than opinions about any other candidate. Clinton’s popularity within her own party, and the lack of a clear ideological difference, makes it likely the Democrats will nominate her unless Barack Obama can show them a definitive reason to change their mind.

Things are much different in the Republican race where voters perceive a wide ideological gap is seen between Thompson and Giuliani. Thompson is generally seen as politically conservative while most Republicans see Giuliani as politically moderate or liberal.

But, both candidates are well liked within their own party. Seventy-two percent (72%) of Republicans view Giuliani favorably while 64% say the same about Thompson.

Thompson is not a well known as Giuliani. Overall, among all voters, he is viewed favorably by 43%, unfavorably by 35%. Just over a fifth of all voters don’t know enough to have an opinion one way or the other.

Giuliani's overall favorable rating has slipped to 50% in the latest poll, with 42% holding a negative view. Those are Giuliani’s weakest numbers so far in Election 2008.

The two Republican leaders are thus neither as popular with their own party as Clinton, nor as unpopular with all voters.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content...uliani_thompson

Edited August 8, 2007 by GaryC

[GaryC 7]

This is the part I like the most.

But, when the question is asked of all voters, the former First Lady is viewed favorably by just 49% and unfavorably by 48%. That latter figure includes 34% with a Very Unfavorable opinion (nearly half of all voters say they will definitely vote against Clinton if she is on the ballot in 2008).

If half of the voters say they will not under any circumstances vote for Clinton that tells me that there is very little chance that she can win. She will and can get the nomination but with negative numbers like that a Clinton nomination virtually assures us of a rep president.

Edited August 8, 2007 by GaryC

[almaty 19]

depends on the GOP, who they run..and what sh!t sticks on him

[Trompe le Monde 1,107]

Gary - I wouldn't get too excited. Kerry led in the polls until pretty much labor day 2004.

[*julez* 124]

I might be one small voice, but Hillary gets my vote. I like her!

[no name 1]

Election 2008: Clinton Virtually Tied with GOP Frontrunners Giuliani, Thompson

Thursday, August 02, 2007

Here's a nice (Republican slanted) FOX new poll.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,289970,00.html

NEW YORK — Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton now holds a slight lead over top Republican Rudy Giuliani for the first time in a hypothetical 2008 presidential matchup. In fact, to varying degrees, Clinton and fellow Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama beat every Republican candidate they are tested against in the latest FOX News Poll.

Opinion Dynamics Corp. conducted the national telephone poll of 900 registered voters for FOX News from July 17 to July 18. The poll has a 3-point error margin.

----

The average of the polls on your link Gary, give HIllary a 1.0 lead.

[garya505 2]

I think either Rudy Giuliani or Fred Thompson would beat Clinton. It’s a no-brainer.

[GaryC 7]

Gary - I wouldn't get too excited. Kerry led in the polls until pretty much labor day 2004.

Kerry didn't have half of the country saying there is no way they would vote for him. It's not how popular the rep candidate is that makes a difference this time. It's the fact the half of America said they would not vote for Clinton under any circumstances that is the real difference here. If it's a head to head two party race and one side has a candidate that has half of America saying they will never vote for her then her doom is sealed. If half say they will never vote for her and there are even 10% remaining that can be swayed one way or another that means she would have to get all of that 10%. Not going to happen.

[Heracles 417]

Did we not learn anything from GWB. Never vote anyone in whose family has already held office. There are over 300,000,000 people here to choose from.

[Trompe le Monde 1,107]

Gary - I wouldn't get too excited. Kerry led in the polls until pretty much labor day 2004.

Kerry didn't have half of the country saying there is no way they would vote for him. It's not how popular the rep candidate is that makes a difference this time. It's the fact the half of America said they would not vote for Clinton under any circumstances that is the real difference here. If it's a head to head two party race and one side has a candidate that has half of America saying they will never vote for her then her doom is sealed. If half say they will never vote for her and there are even 10% remaining that can be swayed one way or another that means she would have to get all of that 10%. Not going to happen.

We will see. I can't see core Republican values voters energized by Guiliani. They have the perfect candidate in Mitt Romney, but there doesn't seem to be any enthusiasm for him because he's a mormon.

[GaryC 7]

Election 2008: Clinton Virtually Tied with GOP Frontrunners Giuliani, Thompson

Thursday, August 02, 2007

Here's a nice (Republican slanted) FOX new poll.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,289970,00.html

NEW YORK — Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton now holds a slight lead over top Republican Rudy Giuliani for the first time in a hypothetical 2008 presidential matchup. In fact, to varying degrees, Clinton and fellow Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama beat every Republican candidate they are tested against in the latest FOX News Poll.

Opinion Dynamics Corp. conducted the national telephone poll of 900 registered voters for FOX News from July 17 to July 18. The poll has a 3-point error margin.

----

The average of the polls on your link Gary, give HIllary a 1.0 lead.

Just wait Dev. Clinton is so hated by half of the country that her chances of winning are nil. Enjoy your 1% lead in the average. It will not last very long once the campaign adds start. The country needs to be reminded of the stupid things she stands for. Most of America does not want to go socialist.

[GaryC 7]

Gary - I wouldn't get too excited. Kerry led in the polls until pretty much labor day 2004.

Kerry didn't have half of the country saying there is no way they would vote for him. It's not how popular the rep candidate is that makes a difference this time. It's the fact the half of America said they would not vote for Clinton under any circumstances that is the real difference here. If it's a head to head two party race and one side has a candidate that has half of America saying they will never vote for her then her doom is sealed. If half say they will never vote for her and there are even 10% remaining that can be swayed one way or another that means she would have to get all of that 10%. Not going to happen.

We will see. I can't see core Republican values voters energized by Guiliani. They have the perfect candidate in Mitt Romney, but there doesn't seem to be any enthusiasm for him because he's a mormon.

When faced with the choice of Clinton or ANY rep candidate reps will go with the rep. I don't think Guiliani will get the nomination anyway. I think that Thompson will get it. That is a candidate that the reps can stand behind. It will also attract enough of the undecided vote to make Clintons 50% unfavorable rating a death knell.

[no name 1]

Just wait Dev. Clinton is so hated by half of the country that her chances of winning are nil. Enjoy your 1% lead in the average. It will not last very long once the campaign adds start. The country needs to be reminded of the stupid things she stands for. Most of America does not want to go socialist.

At least Dems HAVE a strong candidate (or 3) you guys are still trying to find one!