Current Backlog Estimate

[Cokes 7]

Hello, I'm a new member (Dec 2022 Filer) that has been following various case processing threads/google docs for several weeks now. Really appreciate the daily scanning and result compilation many members are doing, I can't imagine waiting for months up to years without having the general knowledge of cases being processed each month. There's a lot of well analyzed results of opened cases by members such as @mw & rg k1 and discussions backed by many google sheets analysis in @AndiB and @Anna Hessler's thread. However, I've been having hard time finding information about our current backlog estimate.

 

It seems like our current backlog estimate of various filers ranges from 38k ~ 55k and USCIS quarterly report does not seem to completely match with these numbers either. I'm wondering if anyone has data on monthly change in backlog in order to forecast the expected month NOA2?

 

I hope to find out info such as the following: 

• Total backlog for each month (Sept 2021 - Jan 2023) 
• Backlog Delta each month = Backlog of pervious month + Total new filers this month - Number of cases closed per month (Accepted/Denied/Withdraw)

 

Apologies in advance if my question does not make sense or had already been answered in other threads, I don't seem to be able to find a general consensus about the current backlog estimate. 

[AndiB 650]

4 hours ago, Cokes said:

Hello, I'm a new member (Dec 2022 Filer) that has been following various case processing threads/google docs for several weeks now. Really appreciate the daily scanning and result compilation many members are doing, I can't imagine waiting for months up to years without having the general knowledge of cases being processed each month. There's a lot of well analyzed results of opened cases by members such as @mw & rg k1 and discussions backed by many google sheets analysis in @AndiB and @Anna Hessler's thread. However, I've been having hard time finding information about our current backlog estimate.

 

It seems like our current backlog estimate of various filers ranges from 38k ~ 55k and USCIS quarterly report does not seem to completely match with these numbers either. I'm wondering if anyone has data on monthly change in backlog in order to forecast the expected month NOA2?

 

I hope to find out info such as the following: 

• Total backlog for each month (Sept 2021 - Jan 2023) 
• Backlog Delta each month = Backlog of pervious month + Total new filers this month - Number of cases closed per month (Accepted/Denied/Withdraw)

 

Apologies in advance if my question does not make sense or had already been answered in other threads, I don't seem to be able to find a general consensus about the current backlog estimate. 

I sadly won't be much help as I have the same question really but from what I can gather, it's somewhere between 38-48k between now and Oct filers, it seems to ave to about 3k pending by time they reach the month. Like Dec has 3.8k filed but by time USCIS got to dec 2021 there's about 3k pending. A lot seem to be rejected outright, approved (I assume expedites) or other processing.

 

If we use what was reported on 30 Sept 2021 there was 55,500 pending and we've processed about 9-10k since according to google sheets, which is where the upper (40k+) numbers come from but I'm not sure these account for expedites/rejected outright etc because if we assume about 3.5k pending per month (3.5k*11month to oct 22 filers) we get about 38k which is the lower bound.

 

The spreadsheet that quotes about 38k says they arrived to that number through scans, so not using the numbers reported by USCIS. Currently I'm leaning towards the 38k being more realistic but I still assume 40k+ to be safe until USCIS releases more data.

[New Romantics 188]

27 minutes ago, AndiB said:

I sadly won't be much help as I have the same question really but from what I can gather, it's somewhere between 38-48k between now and Oct filers, it seems to ave to about 3k pending by time they reach the month. Like Dec has 3.8k filed but by time USCIS got to dec 2021 there's about 3k pending. A lot seem to be rejected outright, approved (I assume expedites) or other processing.

 

If we use what was reported on 30 Sept 2021 there was 55,500 pending and we've processed about 9-10k since according to google sheets, which is where the upper (40k+) numbers come from but I'm not sure these account for expedites/rejected outright etc because if we assume about 3.5k pending per month (3.5k*11month to oct 22 filers) we get about 38k which is the lower bound.

 

The spreadsheet that quotes about 38k says they arrived to that number through scans, so not using the numbers reported by USCIS. Currently I'm leaning towards the 38k being more realistic but I still assume 40k+ to be safe until USCIS releases more data.

I don't know if you read the other thread but it looks like uscis data itself doesn't match up always. They have discrepancies. So 38k or so might actually be right

[AndiB 650]

Just now, New Romantics said:

I don't know if you read the other thread but it looks like uscis data itself doesn't match up always. They have discrepancies. So 38k or so might actually be right

I vaguely saw but haven't re-read fully will do now. I agree with you though, everything *seems* to point to 38k being more accurate than the 47k we've been running with

[New Romantics 188]

1 minute ago, New Romantics said:

I don't know if you read the other thread but it looks like uscis data itself doesn't match up always. They have discrepancies. So 38k or so might actually be right

Yeah, it's about how many are in front of us. So if, like you said, people have scanned 38k, (3.5k*11). I think it makes a lot of sense 

[Cokes 7]

Thanks a lot @AndiB and @New Romantics, now I've got a better idea of how the backlog was estimated. I did a simple linear regression (y=21.727x+355.27, R^2=0.6707) of "holiday excluded process case/week" from September 2022 to January 2023 based on results of the google sheets below that many people refer to.

 

This is a rather optimistic estimate based on the linear increase in case processed through the recent 4 months. Hopefully this is something to look forward to and hope we can all receive our NOA2s soon (fingers crossed).

 

Google sheets ref:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1sN2bo1xZhs8oVU6-QDUdBXBX2_ci8_QJ0wiz59Gp6H4/htmlview?fbclid=IwAR0jCyuMTAY_9YYgYelthZXTEs__xxMMH6vH4e2pwUHX44d5EUed296MJV8#

 

(The linear regression results from sept 2022 to jan 2023)

[New Romantics 188]

20 minutes ago, Cokes said:

Thanks a lot @AndiB and @New Romantics, now I've got a better idea of how the backlog was estimated. I did a simple linear regression (y=21.727x+355.27, R^2=0.6707) of "holiday excluded process case/week" from September 2022 to January 2023 based on results of the google sheets below that many people refer to.

 

This is a rather optimistic estimate based on the linear increase in case processed through the recent 4 months. Hopefully this is something to look forward to and hope we can all receive our NOA2s soon (fingers crossed).

 

Google sheets ref:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1sN2bo1xZhs8oVU6-QDUdBXBX2_ci8_QJ0wiz59Gp6H4/htmlview?fbclid=IwAR0jCyuMTAY_9YYgYelthZXTEs__xxMMH6vH4e2pwUHX44d5EUed296MJV8#

 

(The linear regression results from sept 2022 to jan 2023)

I have been wanting to find something like this because I didn't know how to do it myself. Wow this is great!!! Thank you so much!!! 

[Lynxyonok 316]

10 hours ago, Cokes said:

Thanks a lot @AndiB and @New Romantics, now I've got a better idea of how the backlog was estimated. I did a simple linear regression (y=21.727x+355.27, R^2=0.6707) of "holiday excluded process case/week" from September 2022 to January 2023 based on results of the google sheets below that many people refer to.

 

This is a rather optimistic estimate based on the linear increase in case processed through the recent 4 months. Hopefully this is something to look forward to and hope we can all receive our NOA2s soon (fingers crossed).

 

Google sheets ref:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1sN2bo1xZhs8oVU6-QDUdBXBX2_ci8_QJ0wiz59Gp6H4/htmlview?fbclid=IwAR0jCyuMTAY_9YYgYelthZXTEs__xxMMH6vH4e2pwUHX44d5EUed296MJV8#

 

(The linear regression results from sept 2022 to jan 2023)

Is the weekly number showing approvals or status changes? Because RFEs are out of the wazoo.

 

Number	Message	MsgDate
2290023465	Additional RFE Sent	2/4/23
2290023464	Additional RFE Sent	2/1/23
2290023402	Additional RFE Sent	2/4/23
2290023384	Initial RFE Sent	2/4/23
2290023380	Additional RFE Sent	2/2/23
2290023319	Additional RFE Sent	2/2/23
2290023299	Initial RFE Sent	2/1/23
2290023270	Additional RFE Sent	2/4/23
2290023257	Additional RFE Sent	2/3/23
2290023255	Additional RFE Sent	2/4/23
2290023238	Initial RFE Sent	2/3/23
2290023234	Additional RFE Sent	2/4/23
2290023078	Additional RFE Sent	2/2/23
2290023077	Additional RFE Sent	2/6/23
2290023075	Additional RFE Sent	2/2/23
2290023011	Additional RFE Sent	2/6/23
2290022988	Expedite Request Denied	2/1/23
2290022985	Initial RFE Sent	2/1/23
2290022979	Additional RFE Sent	2/4/23
2290022953	Additional RFE Sent	2/3/23
2290022947	Additional RFE Sent	2/2/23
2290022930	Initial RFE Sent	2/3/23
2290022891	Additional RFE Sent	2/4/23
2290022888	Additional RFE Sent	2/1/23
2290022832	Additional RFE Sent	2/2/23
2290022830	Additional RFE Sent	2/3/23
2290022341	Additional RFE Sent	2/2/23
2290021970	Additional RFE Sent	2/3/23
2290021878	Additional RFE Sent	2/3/23
2290021864	Initial RFE Sent	2/1/23
2290021859	Initial RFE Sent	2/1/23
2290021581	Additional RFE Sent	2/3/23
2290021523	Initial and Additional RFE Mailed	2/3/23
2290021118	Additional RFE Sent	2/1/23
2290020802	Initial and Additional RFE Mailed	2/1/23
2290020767	Initial and Additional RFE Mailed	2/2/23
2290020744	Additional RFE Sent	2/2/23
2290020628	Additional RFE Sent	2/1/23
2290020551	Initial and Additional RFE Mailed	2/2/23
2290019845	Additional RFE Sent	2/1/23
2290016850	Additional RFE Sent	2/4/23
2290016567	Additional RFE Sent	2/3/23
2290016509	Additional RFE Sent	2/3/23
2290016200	Additional RFE Sent	2/3/23
2290016197	Additional RFE Sent	2/2/23
2290016192	Additional RFE Sent	2/2/23
2290016161	Additional RFE Sent	2/2/23
2290016155	Initial RFE Sent	2/1/23
2290016130	Additional RFE Sent	2/2/23

[Naterson 129]

3 minutes ago, Lynxyonok said:

Is the weekly number showing approvals or status changes? Because RFEs are out of the wazoo.

Based on the 1k+ number last week, it has to include RFE in the processed cases number.

[Lynxyonok 316]

1 minute ago, Naterson said:

Based on the 1k+ number last week, it has to include RFE in the processed cases number.

Thank you. I was trying to understand what I was missing.

 

RFEs have shot through the roof. I am waiting to see how scanner data compares to the USCIS official quarterly bulletin: RFEs do not get reported there, only approved, denied, or otherwise closed cases.

[mw & rg k1 626]

19 hours ago, Cokes said:

Hello, I'm a new member (Dec 2022 Filer) that has been following various case processing threads/google docs for several weeks now. Really appreciate the daily scanning and result compilation many members are doing, I can't imagine waiting for months up to years without having the general knowledge of cases being processed each month. There's a lot of well analyzed results of opened cases by members such as @mw & rg k1 and discussions backed by many google sheets analysis in @AndiB and @Anna Hessler's thread. However, I've been having hard time finding information about our current backlog estimate.

 

It seems like our current backlog estimate of various filers ranges from 38k ~ 55k and USCIS quarterly report does not seem to completely match with these numbers either. I'm wondering if anyone has data on monthly change in backlog in order to forecast the expected month NOA2?

 

I hope to find out info such as the following: 

• Total backlog for each month (Sept 2021 - Jan 2023) 
• Backlog Delta each month = Backlog of pervious month + Total new filers this month - Number of cases closed per month (Accepted/Denied/Withdraw)

 

Apologies in advance if my question does not make sense or had already been answered in other threads, I don't seem to be able to find a general consensus about the current backlog estimate. 

Cokes ... a few pointers (and some depressing news)
The latest public report of backlog from USCIS (directly) can be fo und at 
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY2022_Q4.pdf

This can generally be found with a search engine search for "USCIS Quarterly service wide all forms" and looking for the PDF
Remember that USCIS Fiscal year is 1 Quarter ahead of Calandar Year (i.e. Q1 2023 would end Dec 31,2022) and this has not been published yet

 

So I can't comment on final backlog numbers through Dec 2022 but here is the sad story.
Up until these final weeks, USCIS had only been processing hundreds of cases per week resulting in
between 5k and 7k cases per Quarter.  The backlog as of September 30, 2022 reached 55,425 cases

The USCIS has speed up processing and (as of now) is processing ~1k cases a week.
If they maintain this pace, you are looking at 55 weeks before you would even start to see the backlog to September 2022 be ajudicated.
It could go faster ... or slower ... but in any case it will be a very painful road for Dec 2022 filers.

 

Happy to share this XLS with you showing the history of case log all the way back to 2013

Just send me an email and lets connect.

 

[Ok-Mix 117]

Great job on the analyses everyone... @Cokes I am also December 2022... 🤐

[Cokes 7]

@mw & rg k1 Thanks a lot for the pointers, I've DM'ed you my email address for the case log history! Having the case log numbers would be super helpful to me as I'm trying to refine this prediction as much as I can! Tbh, I know no one can actually be able to predict USCIS, but I'd still like to know a bit more. It's really hard to just sit around and wait for USCIS' quarterly report 😢.

 

My current prediction assumption is using 55.5k Backlog for September 2022 filers with a 3.5k new cases filed per month with a linear process rate increase based on linear regression of the past 4 months. 

[mw & rg k1 626]

1 minute ago, Cokes said:

@mw & rg k1 Thanks a lot for the pointers, I've DM'ed you my email address for the case log history! Having the case log numbers would be super helpful to me as I'm trying to refine this prediction as much as I can! Tbh, I know no one can actually be able to predict USCIS, but I'd still like to know a bit more. It's really hard to just sit around and wait for USCIS' quarterly report 😢.

 

My current prediction assumption is using 55.5k Backlog for September 2022 filers with a 3.5k new cases filed per month with a linear process rate increase based on linear regression of the past 4 months. 

Happy to reach out once your message get through the system to me.  The graph I presented is a direct (visual) translation of the quarterly forms issued by USCIS since 2013.
(along with source data addresses)....  As for the backlog burndown, I don't know of anyone else doing that exactly.  My script (looking only at 2021 cases) was custom built and uses a custom data record to keep track.  If (and I know it is if) you have coding skills, I can share some of the lessons learned and some psudo code to let you build your own.  It is something that is not refined and not easily maintained (since the USCIS site does tend to crash from time to time)

 

[Cokes 7]

25 minutes ago, Ok-Mix1229 said:

Great job on the analyses everyone... @Cokes I am also December 2022... 🤐

I'm still trying to be really hopeful and optimistic about the possibility USCIS working towards 6 months cycle time goal for FY23, but the current status is just not looking great. Hope everything ends up working out for us Dec 2022 filers....