Number of cases processed hit new high!

[asleepydoctor 7]

10 minutes ago, AndiB said:

I look at the Oct filers etc forum posts here, people usually post a daily summary of how many cases were updated (approved, denied, rfe etc). I also look at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/15hiSOTm85W1CG6c0jzQ8B7lXLo1JEwsWKr3zIszC2Zg/htmlview# but this updates slower and I don't think includes rfes. Which makes sense as an rfe doesn't remove it from the backlog.

Your number is going up because it's based on visajourney users timelines averaged over last 30days or something so that's what they're *currently* processing at. For times to go down they need to process over 800 a week, every week. It will also take awhile for an increase in processing to have an effect on our estimates. It's not instant.  Also if they're only removing 10-100 out of the backlog every week that's honestly not a lot and won't have a drastic affect on time estimates. It's good news because it means times won't keep going up in the future and will eventually come down but it's not going to happen tomorrow. Their increase in processing is mostly seen by fact the USCIS processing hasn't increased and is unlikely to. It used to go up at least 0.5months every month.

Thank you so much, you've been very helpful!

I think we have a similar timeline, hopefully by the summer the processing times decrease substantially or at the very least have stopped increasing. Not sure if withdrawals are increasing but hopefully that also makes a dent in the backlog. 

thanks again

[AndiB 662]

1 minute ago, asleepydoctor said:

Thank you so much, you've been very helpful!

I think we have a similar timeline, hopefully by the summer the processing times decrease substantially or at the very least have stopped increasing. Not sure if withdrawals are increasing but hopefully that also makes a dent in the backlog. 

thanks again

No problem! I'm optimistic we'll start seeing a decrease by summer, we'll def know by spring. At least there's light at the end of the tunnel, even if it's just no more increases/ some decrease. Seeing it go up was very demoralising 

[Naterson 129]

5 hours ago, AndiB said:

Yes, last week was 700-800 depending if you incl RFE or not. We've also had a few weeks 600-700 before Christmas 

I guess RFEs are a big portion then. Hopefully when they do that they pick up the next one and keep moving rather than sitting idle waiting for the response.

[AndiB 662]

11 minutes ago, Naterson said:

I guess RFEs are a big portion then. Hopefully when they do that they pick up the next one and keep moving rather than sitting idle waiting for the response.

Of course they do. Each worker has a load they work on. I don't know if an RFE goes back to same worker or not but considering an app is apparently assigned 40mins while RFE can be weeks before they hear back, they're not going to do nothing for weeks.

[Lynxyonok 316]

12 hours ago, Naterson said:

I don't do the numbers myself, so take this with a grain of salt, but if what was shown at the beginning of this thread is true it happened last week. Have the numbers been verified?

I should have clarified myself: 600+ cases a week on a consistent basis.

So far the best USCIS quarter had an average of 556 cases.

 

Yes, last week was phenomenal, but look at the dismal weeks prior to it.

[Lynxyonok 316]

7 hours ago, asleepydoctor said:

how do you guys find this info? I'm trying to keep an eye out for the turnover of cases right now but im not sure where or what to look at?

Also even though it seems that cases are being processed at a good rate right now, the timeline given to me by VJ keeps increasing everyday, anyone know why?

Because USCIS workload grows by 1,000 cases a week.

 

So, celebrating a 700-case week still means that there are people about to wait a couple days longer - per week. Then times that by the 70 weeks they already have to wait. 

[AndiB 662]

Just now, Lynxyonok said:

Because USCIS workload grows by 1,000 cases a week.

 

So, celebrating a 700-case week still means that there are people about to wait a couple days longer - per week. Then times that by the 70 weeks they already have to wait. 

where did you get the number for 1k? I consistently see about 800 on ave per week

[Lynxyonok 316]

7 hours ago, AndiB said:

Their increase in processing is mostly seen by fact the USCIS processing hasn't increased and is unlikely to.

Even the first wave is now getting hit with RFEs which now account for 1 in 3 case updates.

 

My timeline fell back 3 days in the last 48 hours.

 

An increase is coming.

[Lynxyonok 316]

6 minutes ago, AndiB said:

where did you get the number for 1k? I consistently see about 800 on ave per week

I stopped adding new cases past my own, but just prior, I-129Fs were spiking.

 

These are currently outstanding - already minus denials and withdrawals.

 

APR22	3480
MAR22	3802
FEB22	2988

 

 

Edit: Number of Service-wide Forms Fiscal Year To Date (uscis.gov)

 

Q4-2022 (July 1, 2022 - September 30, 2022), latest available:

1,000 cases a week

Only 7 processed for every 12 gained

Added delay this quarter: 7 weeks

Edited January 20, 2023 by Lynxyonok

[Lynxyonok 316]

Oh, and the icing on the cake... guess what's about to pile onto USCIS workload:

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/first-asylum-seekers-cross-into-us-from-mexico-using-new-cbp-mobile-app/ar-AA16wzIj

[New Romantics 188]

I think we'll just have to wait and see if the trend continues for the next couple of weeks at least. It is definitely hard to tell right now. All we can do is hope for the best! 

[Lynxyonok 316]

2 minutes ago, New Romantics said:

I think we'll just have to wait and see if the trend continues for the next couple of weeks at least. It is definitely hard to tell right now. All we can do is hope for the best! 

Yes! And I want to hope for the miracle like everyone else.

 

That said. We have to be realistic with numbers - and keep planning trips to keep the relationships alive.

[AndiB 662]

19 minutes ago, Lynxyonok said:

I stopped adding new cases past my own, but just prior, I-129Fs were spiking.

 

These are currently outstanding - already minus denials and withdrawals.

 

APR22	3480
MAR22	3802
FEB22	2988

 

 

Edit: Number of Service-wide Forms Fiscal Year To Date (uscis.gov)

 

Q4-2022 (July 1, 2022 - September 30, 2022), latest available:

1,000 cases a week

Only 7 processed for every 12 gained

Added delay this quarter: 7 weeks

I wouldn't look at a single quarter, engagements and applications will not be uniform, like decembers numbers are 500-700 which will result in a lower quarter than summer for instance. If you average over the year, we have about 900/week which is higher than I thought but also lower than yours.

RFEs do seem to be increasing, there used be a lot fewer. I imagine it may be a mix of all the new staff being unsure and also I've seen a lot of people getting them for proving they met in last 2yrs. I think there were quite a few apps who thought COVID travel restrictions meant they could ignore the 2yr rule. RFE seems to be sitting at about 15% on ave right now but is trending upwards.

[Lynxyonok 316]

2 minutes ago, AndiB said:

I wouldn't look at a single quarter, engagements and applications will not be uniform, like decembers numbers are 500-700 which will result in a lower quarter than summer for instance. If you average over the year, we have about 900/week which is higher than I thought but also lower than yours.

RFEs do seem to be increasing, there used be a lot fewer. I imagine it may be a mix of all the new staff being unsure and also I've seen a lot of people getting them for proving they met in last 2yrs. I think there were quite a few apps who thought COVID travel restrictions meant they could ignore the 2yr rule. RFE seems to be sitting at about 15% on ave right now but is trending upwards.

Essentially, more evidence is demanded.

 

My absolutely favorite from the recent Telegram and Facebook chats: documented proof of the moment he (she) asked you to marry them

[AndiB 662]

2 minutes ago, Lynxyonok said:

Essentially, more evidence is demanded.

 

My absolutely favorite from the recent Telegram and Facebook chats: documented proof of the moment he (she) asked you to marry them

that's been some of the RFEs? I've seen forms giving examples of how to prove relationship and included wedding plans. How you plan a wedding on a visa that takes ??? time?!

Also seen a lot of denials cause people haven't met or didn't meet the financial req.