What do you realistically think is possible with Executive Order #2?

[atomicpenguin 12]

So we're all aware of Section 6 in the first Executive Order and came across this article today 

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/29/dhs-chad-wolf-agencies-checking-visa-program-to-find-jobs-for-americans/

 

What do you guys think is possible with this second executive order re: H1B and OPT / OPT Stem? Have heard about courts / big tech lobbying as a big force to relax any potential immigration restrictions.

[geowrian 22,337]

Disclosure: I take anything from that site with a grain of salt...not for factual content necessarily (hit or miss) but due to a heavy bias.

Personally, I'm skeptical that as applied they will do much with OPT. IMO, those people are not widely taking jobs that would otherwise be filled by qualified US residents.

CPT, I think, would be a bigger target just because of it's past abuse.

Most H2-As and such would likely not be impacted as those are agricultural jobs that are part of the food chain and traditionally not easy to obtain US workers for.

H-1B has a strong lobby behind it, but it's possible that at least a section o fit will be a target. The program has been wildly abused and people are aware of it. Good intent and it has done some good things for the US (great talent acquired), but the implementation has been abused to benefit the large corporations and domestic and foreign agencies to pry on workers.

H-2B is possibly a strong target.

 

There's no words on TN visas in the article...I'm skeptical this will be impacted myself, but if the process were to be fair, I do think these should be considered to the extent they can within the underlying treaties. Fair is fair (even if one personally disagrees with the idea of suspending work visas in general).

Edited April 29, 2020 by geowrian

[atomicpenguin 12]

Interesting. What forces are there that work for immigration and against restrictions? Do you think the lobbying power of big tech is strong enough?

[geowrian 22,337]

I think visas that primarily are sued for agriculture and healthcare purposes will be spared by these actions. Maybe not directly, but as applied (meaning via exemptions or rules that generally make them exempt without directly stating so).

 

As for "big tech", I'm really borderline on how it could go. The lobby is strong and there are good arguments. But at the same time, the POTUS has broad powers and I think that's a target that he could get away with both legally and without a broad political toll. The effects of a suspension would likely not be seen for at least the rest of his term, unlike impacting healthcare or agricultural cases where I think there would be a more sudden and direct impact this term.

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

POTUS family owned hotels use H2B workers, I wouldn’t necessarily expect those to go anytime soon. 

And yes on H2A, even right now agricultural workers are getting emergency visas (even Brexit UK is importing Eastern Europeans to come work on the farms seasonally now...) no matter how anti you might be as an administration, practicality has to rule when it comes to food security.

 

~ back to OP:

The problem with H1B is while the principle is sound, the practice of how it often plays out isn’t  (not in every case obviously, but it’s definitely gamed).

 

[Mounat02 63]

On 4/30/2020 at 4:06 PM, atomicpenguin said:

Interesting. What forces are there that work for immigration and against restrictions? Do you think the lobbying power of big tech is strong enough?

It's not just big tech. It's big banks, big insurance, big healthcare, big pharma, big defense, big agriculture, big education, you name it! Everyone uses foreign workers on an alphabet soup of visas. Individually, each industry has a powerful lobby but collectively, they're formidable. It will be interesting to see their lobbying strength versus 30 million Americans (~20% of the working population) out of a job in 6 weeks with more likely to come. Normally, I would bet on the lobbyists but in an election year, under a once-in-century pandemic and 30-40 million Americans losing their jobs and the optics of their lining up for miles to get food?

 

I'd say the executive branch, under pressure to do something, might be tempted to issue EO #2 that puts a moratorium on any new employment visas and stops renewals of any that expire, at least through the election. It might even prod congress to change the laws (a much harder endeavor) to reduce caps on certain visas or eliminate them altogether.

 

As someone who has been on H1 and TN in the past, I know the stress this puts on those with work visas. Yet this is such an unprecedented time, it is very difficult to predict how bad it can get with the economy cratering further, new executive orders or even new legislation. I hope it doesn't but I'm not holding my breath under the current administration.