Most in east Ukraine region against joining Russia

[luckytxn 2,263]

Individual sanctions are laughable. The sanctions they need are total blockade. No fuel deliveries. That pipeline going through the Ukraine to Germany needs to be shut down. Total embargo. Anything less will just make Russia laugh. Get serious or STFU.

NATO has no mandate to intervene in the crisis in the Ukraine, which President Putin knows full well. And the UN will never get a mandate because Russia has it's veto on the UN Security Council. Economics is the only course of action open, but Europe needs to get serious about sanctions, or Putin will laugh in their face.

The problem I see is that if Putin gets an outcome he sees as positive in the Ukraine, he may be tempted to try something similar elsewhere, Estonia being cited as a likely future focus. If Russia tangles with a NATO member like Estonia, with its limited military, the actual military assets are likely to be American, one of the Nordic countries, or possibly German. Russian overconfidence could, in such a situation, lead to a very bloody Russian nose. Which would not be good.

This is why economic sanctions need to get serious and soon. If they don't, bigger troubles are that much closer.

[Pooky 3,362]

Individual sanctions are laughable. The sanctions they need are total blockade. No fuel deliveries. That pipeline going through the Ukraine to Germany needs to be shut down. Total embargo. Anything less will just make Russia laugh. Get serious or STFU.

Rather, get serious now, or find out you have to get real serious later.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Individual sanctions are laughable. The sanctions they need are total blockade. No fuel deliveries. That pipeline going through the Ukraine to Germany needs to be shut down. Total embargo. Anything less will just make Russia laugh. Get serious or STFU.

The Russian economy is not laughing about the sanctions that are in effect. Russia's access to capital has not only effectively been cut off but whatever capital there is, it is actually fleeing Russia. Putin is gambling away Russia's future and the Russian people in their almost drunk nationalism appear to celebrate that. It's insane.

[luckytxn 2,263]

Exactly. Who else is he going to sell that oil to? Sure it will hurt the economies of NATO but so what? That is what happens when we decide to meddle in countries and send a few billions to destabilize an elected government. I am wondering if Ukraine regrets stealing all that oil from the pipeline now.

Rather, get serious now, or find out you have to get real serious later.

[luckytxn 2,263]

And NATO is going to hurt even worse when their economies start to fall apart. Great going. Russia will survive as NATO. Hope they learn not to meddle in the future. Germany needs to say no more fuel deliveries.

The Russian economy is not laughing about the sanctions that are in effect. Russia's access to capital has not only effectively been cut off but whatever capital there is, it is actually fleeing Russia. Putin is gambling away Russia's future and the Russian people in their almost drunk nationalism appear to celebrate that. It's insane.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

And NATO is going to hurt even worse when their economies start to fall apart. Great going. Russia will survive as NATO. Hope they learn not to meddle in the future. Germany needs to say no more fuel deliveries.

Germany needs to do no such thing right now. Long term, Europe needs to establish alternate fuel sources and decrease the dependency on Russian oil and gas. That's pretty clear to anyone. But right now, it is Russia that is hurting economically and that hurt is getting worse quick. Seven failed sovereign bond auctions in the last two months, sovereign debt rated just above junk, capital fleeing the country by the tens of billions each month, the ruble depreciating, economic growth screeching to a halt and very likely already in recession, the stock market tanking, the central bank having to raise interest rates which chokes the economy off even more. They're in a pretty bad fix over there. And Europe is already working on reversing flows in the gas pipelines so that the huge reserves that they have amassed can be pumped even back to Ukraine if need be. Norway, the US and Canada are ready to supply fuel if and when required. Vladimir Vladimirovich has got no Ace left in his hand - which probably explains his taking hostages already.

Edited April 26, 2014 by Mr. Big Dog

[luckytxn 2,263]

Russia will be fine. They have way more resources than Europe and Europe needs those resources badly. Putin just needs to hold on and NATO will tell Obama to take a flying leap and they will go and tal to Russia. Russia holds the cards. And good luck shipping enough fuel to keep Germany afloat. I am guessing you think it is real easy to supply a nation with fuel. How they going to do it? With ships? Oh I know they will have another airlift. LOL. I hope Germany will try to stop the fuel and watch their economy fail big time. The same economy that is the engine of Europe. Economically Germany is what keeps Europe afloat.

I am guessing from your laughable attempt at trying to think that they can reverse the flow of fuel in that pipeline. Since I now know you are clueless I will not attempt to engage you. Take care.

Germany needs to do no such thing right now. Long term, Europe needs to establish alternate fuel sources and decrease the dependency on Russian oil and gas. That's pretty clear to anyone. But right now, it is Russia that is hurting economically and that hurt is getting worse quick. Seven failed sovereign bond auctions in the last two months, sovereign debt rated just above junk, capital fleeing the country by the tens of billions each month, the ruble depreciating, economic growth screeching to a halt and very likely already in recession, the stock market tanking, the central bank having to raise interest rates which chokes the economy off even more. They're in a pretty bad fix over there. And Europe is already working on reversing flows in the gas pipelines so that the huge reserves that they have amassed can be pumped even back to Ukraine if need be. Norway, the US and Canada are ready to supply fuel if and when required. Vladimir Vladimirovich has got no Ace left in his hand - which probably explains his taking hostages already.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Russia will be fine. They have way more resources than Europe and Europe needs those resources badly. Putin just needs to hold on and NATO will tell Obama to take a flying leap and they will go and tal to Russia. Russia holds the cards. And good luck shipping enough fuel to keep Germany afloat. I am guessing you think it is real easy to supply a nation with fuel. How they going to do it? With ships? Oh I know they will have another airlift. LOL. I hope Germany will try to stop the fuel and watch their economy fail big time. The same economy that is the engine of Europe. Economically Germany is what keeps Europe afloat.

I am guessing from your laughable attempt at trying to think that they can reverse the flow of fuel in that pipeline. Since I now know you are clueless I will not attempt to engage you. Take care.

Lame. Maybe you should read a bit of news from outside of Texas every now and then. You might be more in tune with the goings on around the world.

Edited April 26, 2014 by Mr. Big Dog

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Exactly. Who else is he going to sell that oil to?

China. Japan. Korea. India. The list is long. europe is just a peninsula of peninsulas, a minor tumor the shoulder of Asia, not a proper continent, smaller than many Asian countries. And those countries have growing economies, well not Japan, but most of the rest of them. China, for sure. That would be easier than tanking the oil across the Pacific.

Lame. Maybe you should read a bit of news from outside of Texas every now and then. You might be more in tune with the goings on around the world.

europe is delusional, and rapidly becoming marginalized by the emerging and developing world economies.

[luckytxn 2,263]

You are right but they have to have the infrastructure to do so. Do they? Definitely China will buy all they can send. Just takes time and I advise Russia to start pivoting to Asia. Europe is too America focused at a time when Obama is pivoting away from them. Merkel needs to act like a leader and step into the vacuum. This can be solved if a real leader emerges and goes and treats Russia like the power they are. None of this had to happen.

China. Japan. Korea. India. The list is long. europe is just a peninsula of peninsulas, a minor tumor the shoulder of Asia, not a proper continent, smaller than many Asian countries. And those countries have growing economies, well not Japan, but most of the rest of them. China, for sure. That would be easier than tanking the oil across the Pacific.

europe is delusional, and rapidly becoming marginalized by the emerging and developing world economies.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

You are right but they have to have the infrastructure to do so. Do they?

They will, once they control eastern Ukraine, and they already control Crimea. I wonder how Russia and Turkey are getting along? Turkey is the only real threat at the moment to Putin's strategy. Chess is a wonderful game.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

While Turkish-Russian relations have significantly improved in the last couple of years, economic integration between the two countries has also gained depth. Political contacts between Turkey and Russia reached the highest level in terms of both cooperation and intensity. Unpleasant memories of the centuries-long rivalry between Ottoman Turkey and Tsarist Russia are a matter of the past, and are no longer a hot agenda item. In this respect, the fact that Russia is Turkey’s second largest trading partner today is not a coincidence. Moreover, social contacts between the peoples of the two countries have reached an amazing level today. The reciprocal lifting of visa requirement made it easier for millions of Russians and Turks to visit each other’s country every year. Under current circumstances, Russia qualifies as the most important regional partner for Turkey. Even the fact that Ankara and Moscow adopted two different approaches, which are diametrically opposed, indeed, toward the Syrian crisis, could not prevent the improvement of bilateral relations.

Ankara does not believe that supporting Ukraine’s territorial integrity in principle will harm its relations with Russia. In this regard, the recent decision by the state-owned Turkish Airlines to continue with direct flights to Crimea after a short pause by 14 April 2014 carries a political meaning beside its economic undertone. Likewise, the fact that Turkey does not join the EU even in its mildest sanctions against Russia can be assessed as a sign of Turkey’s unwillingness to downgrade its relations with Russia.

Another condition which must be fulfilled in Ankara’s view is the preservation of the acquired rights of Crimean Tatars. Russia made several promises to Turkic Tatar community pertaining to the preservation and even furthering of their rights before and after the annexation of Crimea. These promises include ascribing Tatar language an official status alongside Russian and Ukrainian, and the high-level representation of Tatars within the ranks of regional government and civil service. However, to what extent Russia will keep its crisis-time promises and whether given rights will be divested is a whole different subject. In this respect, Crimean Tatars, the only native people on the peninsula, look Russia with suspicion. They want to be a part of a Ukraine which is integrated with the EU. If Moscow puts pressure on Crimean Tatars and force them to immigrate, this may lead to a problem in Turkish-Russian relations. Turkish public viewed the ongoing crisis in Ukraine with discretion until now. Turks also do not wish their commercial relations with Russia to deteriorate due to the crisis. However in case Russia begins pursuing policies which violate the acquired rights of Crimean Tatars, Turkish public’s attitude may evolve into a backlash leading to popular demands for the reconsideration of Turkish-Russian relations.

Another solid reason why Turkey preferred to stay in the background during the ongoing crisis between Kiev and Moscow is Ankara’s willingness to adhere to the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Turkish Straits. The convention dates back to 1936, and regulates the passage of naval warships bearing the flag of Black Sea-littoral states, as well as the passage of non-littoral state parties’ warships, through the Turkish straits. This regime took Soviet Union’s concerns into consideration when it was established, while it also vested Turkey with utmost authority, thereby adjusting a sensitive political balance. Therefore Ankara does not wish to see the decline of the current maritime regime over the Black Sea because the Montreux Convention rests upon a delicate Turkish-Russian balance. Turkey strongly emphasized the Montreux regime back in 2008, when American naval warships were expected to enter the Black Sea in the name of solidarity with Tbilisi in its war against Moscow. Ankara once again displays similar sensitivity on the crisis in Ukraine. Ankara firmly refused Moscow’s claim that American warships USS Taylor and USS Truxtun stayed in the Black Sea for a time period exceeding the 21-days limit set by the Montreux Convention.

All in all, Ankara built its policy with regard to the crisis in Ukraine on extremely sensitive balances. On the one hand, Turkey is emphasizing Ukraine’s territorial integrity as a matter of principle; and on the other hand, it spreads on effort to avoid undermining bilateral relations between Ankara and Moscow which have a multi-dimensional character today. That is why Ankara consciously prefers to stay in the background amid the ongoing crisis.

http://www.eurasiareview.com/26042014-turkeys-attitude-toward-crisis-russia-ukraine-analysis/

Edited April 26, 2014 by The Postmaster

[luckytxn 2,263]

Yeah I agree. Turkey could really be the game changer here. Putin definitely knows chess well. It is good that Obama knows golf at least. I expect east Ukraine gone. I personally hope south Ukraine is safe. I been reading about some unrest happening there. They go to then Ukraine is dead. At least the north Ukraine will be able to join with the west.

They will, once they control eastern Ukraine, and they already control Crimea. I wonder how Russia and Turkey are getting along? Turkey is the only real threat at the moment to Putin's strategy. Chess is a wonderful game.

[luckytxn 2,263]

Ouch. Turkey is part of NATO though. NATO needs Turkey badly.

[luckytxn 2,263]

Oops

Edited April 26, 2014 by luckytxn