USCIS Estimates vs VJ's - Time Capsule!

[nightingalejules 678]

On February 28, 2014, VJ data was as follows:

In the Immigration Timelines section, it said

Petitions with NOA1 dates as follows are currently being processed:

I-130s for IR1/CR1 and K3 Visas:

CSC: August 14, 2013

VSC: June 29, 2013

TSC: June 10, 2013

NBC: June 24, 2013

This data is less helpful than it once was, since USCIS has clearly abandoned their FIFO protocol. We have noticed these numbers jumping back and forth as the service centres continue to work parallel paths, catching up on old files and also working ahead. It's just kind of luck of the draw as to when the first person to report in a given day sent in their petition.

Igor's list

Most of the recent approvals (by about an 8-1 ratio) are from August. Throughout the Igor's List reporting there is a little bit of movement from March, April, May, a couple of (presumably expedited) approvals from November and January, and none of the last 15 from any service center were from June or July.

Again, Igor's list (and our timelines) do not seem to be successfully tracking transfers, so almost all the data is on the NBC page of Igor's list since almost all petitions from last year were sent there first.

Transfer Spreadsheet Info

July Transfers were completed early this month, and have been seeing quick responses from CSC, reasonably quick responses from TSC (since about mid-month) and NSC has just recently started to send approvals (and RFEs)

August transfers seem to have been completed as of the beginning of this week. The majority of August transfers went to CSC, a minority went to TSC, and none seem to have gone to NSC.

September transfers began this week, too, and despite a strange jump where they transferred the first week of September and then there were a few from the 3rd week, skipping the second week, they have seen several transfer days and it looks good for them to be transferred quickly. This month some files are being transferred to NSC again, so hopefully that is a suggestion that NSC might be working through their backlog and may speed up processing.

Looking at the transfer spreadsheets (this data is even less representative, since it requires 2 levels of compliance (it doesn't automatically update based on timeline updates, and people have to sign up for it and update it themselves)

Of February's reported transfers, 80% have NOA2 - (CSC 100%, TSC 91%, NSC 76%)

Of March's reported transfers, 71% have NOA2 - (CSC 86%, TSC 46%, NSC 74%) This data is virtually unchanged from last month.

Of April's reported transfers, 86% have NOA2 - (CSC 94%, TSC 79%, NSC 89%)

Of May's reported transfers, only 56% have NOA2 - (CSC 100%, TSC 58%, NSC 60%, Not reported 27%)

Of June's reported transfers, 46% have NOA2 - (CSC 85%, TSC 64%, NSC 36%, Not reported 14%)

Incidentally, May and June sent a disproportionate number of petitions to NSC - more than half of May and slightly less than half of June transfers went there.

Of July's reported transfers, 71% have NOA2 - (CSC 79%, TSC 93%, NSC 28%)

Keep in mind that July sent the majority of petitions to CSC, so 79% is A LOT of petitions)

Of August's reported transfers, 49% have NOA2 - (CSC 66%, TSC 44%, NSC didn't get any, and there's one NBC approval of the world's slowest expedite)

So the data suggests that USCIS is continuing along their path to get the average down to 6-7 months fairly soon. We can expect to see the remainder of September transferred somewhere around the middle of March, (there's usually a slowdown right around the time when the numbers are "updated" on the USCIS website) and then probably they'll transfer the October filers who are still at NBC (about mid-October they started sending them direct to the service centers, so after that point, presumably there will be no more transfers to worry about).

And the people from March to June are still kind of lost in the ether - I could hardly believe it when I looked at the transfer data and realized that there's hardly any difference in March's numbers since last month! I mean, I hope some of that is people not updating the spreadsheet anymore, but really!

I'm interested to see what happens with the September transfers going out to TSC. We know they still have an enormous backlog, but will they start following CSC's lead and just jump ahead and process those files, or will they leave them alone until they're caught up?

Overall, if VJ's data is a representative enough sample, (and USCIS is honest) the processing date that will be posted around April 20 should be somewhere in mid - late June (although that's literally an average, since June hasn't been getting much attention at all - only the months before and after!)

Does anyone have anything else that should go in the Time Capsule?

[À Montréal 14]

Overall, if VJ's data is a representative enough sample, (and USCIS is honest) the processing date that will be posted around April 20 should be somewhere in mid - late June (although that's literally an average, since June hasn't been getting much attention at all - only the months before and after!)

As someone stuck in Nebraska's June desert: thanks for the informative calculations. But I shudder to think that I might be stuck for another month or more...

[Deep35472 130]

On February 28, 2014, VJ data was as follows:

In the Immigration Timelines section, it said

Petitions with NOA1 dates as follows are currently being processed:

I-130s for IR1/CR1 and K3 Visas:

CSC: August 14, 2013

VSC: June 29, 2013

TSC: June 10, 2013

NBC: June 24, 2013

This data is less helpful than it once was, since USCIS has clearly abandoned their FIFO protocol. We have noticed these numbers jumping back and forth as the service centres continue to work parallel paths, catching up on old files and also working ahead. It's just kind of luck of the draw as to when the first person to report in a given day sent in their petition.

Igor's list

Most of the recent approvals (by about an 8-1 ratio) are from August. Throughout the Igor's List reporting there is a little bit of movement from March, April, May, a couple of (presumably expedited) approvals from November and January, and none of the last 15 from any service center were from June or July.

Again, Igor's list (and our timelines) do not seem to be successfully tracking transfers, so almost all the data is on the NBC page of Igor's list since almost all petitions from last year were sent there first.

Transfer Spreadsheet Info

July Transfers were completed early this month, and have been seeing quick responses from CSC, reasonably quick responses from TSC (since about mid-month) and NSC has just recently started to send approvals (and RFEs)

August transfers seem to have been completed as of the beginning of this week. The majority of August transfers went to CSC, a minority went to TSC, and none seem to have gone to NSC.

September transfers began this week, too, and despite a strange jump where they transferred the first week of September and then there were a few from the 3rd week, skipping the second week, they have seen several transfer days and it looks good for them to be transferred quickly. This month some files are being transferred to NSC again, so hopefully that is a suggestion that NSC might be working through their backlog and may speed up processing.

Looking at the transfer spreadsheets (this data is even less representative, since it requires 2 levels of compliance (it doesn't automatically update based on timeline updates, and people have to sign up for it and update it themselves)

Of February's reported transfers, 80% have NOA2 - (CSC 100%, TSC 91%, NSC 76%)

Of March's reported transfers, 71% have NOA2 - (CSC 86%, TSC 46%, NSC 74%) This data is virtually unchanged from last month.

Of April's reported transfers, 86% have NOA2 - (CSC 94%, TSC 79%, NSC 89%)

Of May's reported transfers, only 56% have NOA2 - (CSC 100%, TSC 58%, NSC 60%, Not reported 27%)

Of June's reported transfers, 46% have NOA2 - (CSC 85%, TSC 64%, NSC 36%, Not reported 14%)

Incidentally, May and June sent a disproportionate number of petitions to NSC - more than half of May and slightly less than half of June transfers went there.

Of July's reported transfers, 71% have NOA2 - (CSC 79%, TSC 93%, NSC 28%)

Keep in mind that July sent the majority of petitions to CSC, so 79% is A LOT of petitions)

Of August's reported transfers, 49% have NOA2 - (CSC 66%, TSC 44%, NSC didn't get any, and there's one NBC approval of the world's slowest expedite)

So the data suggests that USCIS is continuing along their path to get the average down to 6-7 months fairly soon. We can expect to see the remainder of September transferred somewhere around the middle of March, (there's usually a slowdown right around the time when the numbers are "updated" on the USCIS website) and then probably they'll transfer the October filers who are still at NBC (about mid-October they started sending them direct to the service centers, so after that point, presumably there will be no more transfers to worry about).

And the people from March to June are still kind of lost in the ether - I could hardly believe it when I looked at the transfer data and realized that there's hardly any difference in March's numbers since last month! I mean, I hope some of that is people not updating the spreadsheet anymore, but really!

I'm interested to see what happens with the September transfers going out to TSC. We know they still have an enormous backlog, but will they start following CSC's lead and just jump ahead and process those files, or will they leave them alone until they're caught up?

Overall, if VJ's data is a representative enough sample, (and USCIS is honest) the processing date that will be posted around April 20 should be somewhere in mid - late June (although that's literally an average, since June hasn't been getting much attention at all - only the months before and after!)

Does anyone have anything else that should go in the Time Capsule?

So you seems doing something good for everyone..

and you said one approval from Nbc in august filler as worlds slowest expedite..

it was me but I didn't get your line , lol.

[nightingalejules 678]

So you seems doing something good for everyone..

and you said one approval from Nbc in august filler as worlds slowest expedite..

it was me but I didn't get your line , lol.

Thanks, I'm trying - sorry I couldn't remember your username when I was doing the report - I know how frustrating it was for you that somehow the fact that you had an expedite in the works slowed down your application - I couldn't believe it, so I felt I had to make some kind of comment about it. I'm so glad you finally got the approval, even though the "expedite" was a complete cluster****.

[Deep35472 130]

Thanks, I'm trying - sorry I couldn't remember your username when I was doing the report - I know how frustrating it was for you that somehow the fact that you had an expedite in the works slowed down your application - I couldn't believe it, so I felt I had to make some kind of comment about it. I'm so glad you finally got the approval, even though the "expedite" was a complete cluster****.

hmmmm Thanks from me too.

Also, march and Feb spreadsheet numbers is not accurate.

coz many VJ fillers left their journey from the site for waiting too long. or after they got their noa2 they didn't came back for updates.

below 75% for march seems very inaccurate for me..