What Are The Odds? (K-1 > GC Query)

[Sharkano 13]

Ok, assume the following facts:

1. My fiancee arrives on a K-1 visa, and we timely marry and then file all required AOS papers by end of January

2. We have no red flags or RFE's

3. We are doing everything in San Diego

Now the question: given the above facts, what is the over/under date on when we get her green card? The reason I ask is that we would like to take her back home in August to see her elderly father, but I would like to avoid risking it on advance parole if we can (the risk may be slim, but if there were an idiotic denial of the AOS while abroad we would be hosed as you then can be denied re-entry, and I can't bear to be without her another year+ for a spousal visa). I am trying to get educated guesses (and I realize that is all they are) as to when the GC might arrive. Thanks in advance!

[Lynkali 163]

I think there's just no way of knowing -- the green card process is nearly 50/50 whether you get an interview fairly quickly (3-4 months) or have to wait 6-12 months and get approved without interview. From what I've read/seen, there is no predicting the interview waiver -- it's not based on red flags or cases, even the most simple cases sometimes have interviews, and local offices seem to choose randomly.

As for the risk of traveling on Advanced Parole, I know what you mean and I have similar feelings, just because I want to avoid any problems, however -- in theory there should be no risk at all as long as your wife has never overstayed, been denied entry, or has any other infringements. The horror stories mostly come from those who have accrued unlawful presence before getting their AP. I've yet to hear of a problem from someone doing it as you would be, where she was never out of status at all. Unless I've just missed some awful story somewhere?

[Sharkano 13]

Yeah, Lynk, I agree most of the AP horror stories are overstays. However, if for some reason you are out of the country and your AOS is denied while you are out, you are doomed. You will not be let back in, as the courts have ruled that the promise you received to get back in was 100% dependent on your having a pending petition. Granted, the risk of denial in a short time window may be a slight chance, but I am not sure I want to risk it.

[Pitaya 2,576]

AOS processing times are all over the board. some interviewed, some waived.... I would try to bet on lottery numbers with better frequency.

[Darnell 8,478]

you can make yer own data set from the VJ timeline section,

then run yer own confidence intervals based on the data,

and run yer own math against that.

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duration on approvals varies each quarter, even each month, as other casefile types are prioritized.

[Sharkano 13]

Ok, will do.

[Nich-Nick 3,353]

Yeah, Lynk, I agree most of the AP horror stories are overstays. However, if for some reason you are out of the country and your AOS is denied while you are out, you are doomed. You will not be let back in, as the courts have ruled that the promise you received to get back in was 100% dependent on your having a pending petition. Granted, the risk of denial in a short time window may be a slight chance, but I am not sure I want to risk it.

Shark--you're being paranoid. Just do it.

Not using AP is usually advised for people who skipped the K1 visa process by coming on VWP, marrying, overstaying, then going straight to AOS. There is a risk in that because of being from VWP, but most of those get a greencard without questions.

[Sharkano 13]

Yeah, I may. One way or the other the AOS is going to get submitted asap so we can get started and try to get the GC in time.