Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
one...two...tree

Politics Is Key to Avoiding Global Warming Catastrophe

9 posts in this topic

Recommended Posts

Delaying global action on climate change by 20 more years will put the goal of keeping the world relatively cool out of reach forever, no matter how much money humanity later spends to try to solve the problem, a new study finds.

Since the 1990s, scientists and international negotiators have aimed to keep global temperatures from warming more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), but little progress has been made so far in concrete steps toward that goal. The mostrecent climate talks, in Qatar in December, ended with only modest steps that fail to address growing greenhouse gas emissions, climate scientists said.

It's these delays that ultimately make dealing with climate change more expensive and perhaps eventually impossible, according to a study published this week (Jan. 4) in the journal Nature. While it's true there are still uncertainties about how the climate will respond to specific strategies, these uncertainties are nothing compared with potential disaster caused by delay, said study researcher Joeri Rogelj of Switzerland's Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science in Zurich.

"The uncertainties about how the climate system will respond have been previously used as an argument to postpone action until we have learned more," Rogelj told LiveScience. "We show that such a delay strategy is unsupported and that the most important factor for staying below 2 degrees Cis the timing of when we start tackling this problem at a global scale."

2-degree world

Many researchers have attempted to weigh the costs and benefits of climate-change strategies ranging from a carbon tax on emissions to requirements for sequestering carbon underground rather than releasing it into the atmosphere. What Rogelj and his colleagues did differently was to rank the importance of "the known unknowns." These are the uncertainties that keep scientists from predicting exactly how the future of climate will unravel. They include geophysical uncertainties — how the climate system of our planet will respond to specific strategies — as well as social uncertainties, such as future growth and energy demand. Technological uncertainties include what innovations will be available for lowering emissions. And finally, there are the political uncertainties: When will the world decide to act to prevent further warming? [8 Ways Global Warming Is Already Changing the World]

For the first time, Rogelj and his colleagues quantified and ranked the importance of each of these uncertainties. They found that politics dominated.

Delay hurts

In other words, the timing of climate-change action plays a more important role in keeping the planet from possibly catastrophic warming than social, geophysical or technological hurdles. If humanity delays in taking action, even the best-case social, geophysical and tech scenarios will do little good.

"When delaying action by two more decades, chances to stay below 2 degrees C become very low and we find that they cannot be improved later on, no matter how much money we throw at the problem in the future," Rogelj said.

Without drastically reducing energy demands, two decades of delay will mean only a 20 percent chance of staying below 2 degrees C, Rogelj said. A move toward a highly energy-efficient society would increase those odds to 50 percent. [The Reality of Climate Change: 10 Myths Busted]

In fact, conservation and energy efficiency (social and technological uncertainties) play big roles in making mitigation strategies such as carbon taxes or carbon capture more effective, the researchers found. For example, if carbon emissions were immediately taxed at $40 a metric ton, there would be an 80 percent chance of staying below 2 degrees in an energy-efficient world. The same carbon price would give only a 66 percent chance of hitting that temperature goal in an intermediate-demand world. In a future with a high demand for energy (20 percent greater than the intermediate scenario), carbon would have to cost $150 per metric ton just to reach that same 66 percent likelihood.

A low-energy future has upsides beyond climate mitigation, Rogelj said.

"If one can continue to prosper in the future and deliver the same services with less overall energy, this will in the first place save you money, but also very significantly improve your national energy security situation," he said. "It seems to me that such benefits should be appealing to any decision-maker who cares about the long-term development and prosperity of his or her country."

Fixing climate

Even though the study examined more than 700 future climate scenarios, there are some limitations to its analysis. The research didn't take into account the cost of disasters such as coastal flooding if climate change is not mitigated. Nor did it consider "runaway climate change" scenarios. For example, if the melting of the permafrost releases trapped methane stores into the atmosphere, that gas could trap heat even more efficiently than carbon dioxide, sending temperatures soaring faster than expected.

The researchers' middle-of-the-road predictions for economic growth and population growth are also "somewhat optimistic," according to Steve Hatfield-Dodds of Australian National University, who was not involved in the study. That could mean that the estimated likelihoods of climate-mitigation success are also optimistic, Hatfield-Dodds wrote in an editorial accompanying the study in Nature.

Nevertheless, "the findings should help to make risks and consequences more transparent, and thereby support better-informed economic and political decisions," Hatfield-Dodds wrote.

http://news.yahoo.co...-180402067.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
For example, if carbon emissions were immediately taxed at $40 a metric ton

that translates to about 40 cents more per gallon of gas.

Edited by charles!

* ~ * Charles * ~ *
 

I carry a gun because a cop is too heavy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just read that mother nature is hitting the climate change denying USA more than any other place on earth. The US bore the brunt of 2012 natural disasters picking up well more than half of the global natural disaster damage (67% out of $160 billion) and about 90% of the insurance covered natural disaster damage (that's 90% of $ 65 billion) in 2012. Doing the math on this, we have $107 billion in damages and only $58 billion of that insured. That leaves a net loss of $50 billion just for 2012. And this number isn't going to get any lower. It's going to increase. Easily in excess of a half a trillion dollars over the next decade. But hey, climate change is just a hoax. An expensive hoax but a hoax all the same. Right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

that translates to about 40 cents more per gallon of gas.

Yeah, fxxk the future, I want cheap gas for my guzzler!! :wacko:

I wonder how many metric tons a year my wood stove produces - not that I really care.

You are good! The carbon is 'renewable' and the particulates, while unhealthy for your lungs, might block a little solar radiation from reaching the earth's surface. :D

Just read that mother nature is hitting the climate change denying USA more than any other place on earth. The US bore the brunt of 2012 natural disasters picking up well more than half of the global natural disaster damage (67% out of $160 billion) and about 90% of the insurance covered natural disaster damage (that's 90% of $ 65 billion) in 2012. Doing the math on this, we have $107 billion in damages and only $58 billion of that insured. That leaves a net loss of $50 billion just for 2012. And this number isn't going to get any lower. It's going to increase. Easily in excess of a half a trillion dollars over the next decade. But hey, climate change is just a hoax. An expensive hoax but a hoax all the same. Right?

It will stay a 'hoax' as long as big oil and big coal have profits to be made! :angry:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just read that mother nature is hitting the climate change denying USA more than any other place on earth. The US bore the brunt of 2012 natural disasters picking up well more than half of the global natural disaster damage

That just goes to show you how worthless other people's property is compared to ours.


20-July -03 Meet Nicole

17-May -04 Divorce Final. I-129F submitted to USCIS

02-July -04 NOA1

30-Aug -04 NOA2 (Approved)

13-Sept-04 NVC to HCMC

08-Oc t -04 Pack 3 received and sent

15-Dec -04 Pack 4 received.

24-Jan-05 Interview----------------Passed

28-Feb-05 Visa Issued

06-Mar-05 ----Nicole is here!!EVERYBODY DANCE!

10-Mar-05 --US Marriage

01-Nov-05 -AOS complete

14-Nov-07 -10 year green card approved

12-Mar-09 Citizenship Oath Montebello, CA

May '04- Mar '09! The 5 year journey is complete!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
- Back to Top -


Important Disclaimer: Please read carefully the Visajourney.com Terms of Service. If you do not agree to the Terms of Service you should not access or view any page (including this page) on VisaJourney.com. Answers and comments provided on Visajourney.com Forums are general information, and are not intended to substitute for informed professional medical, psychiatric, psychological, tax, legal, investment, accounting, or other professional advice. Visajourney.com does not endorse, and expressly disclaims liability for any product, manufacturer, distributor, service or service provider mentioned or any opinion expressed in answers or comments. VisaJourney.com does not condone immigration fraud in any way, shape or manner. VisaJourney.com recommends that if any member or user knows directly of someone involved in fraudulent or illegal activity, that they report such activity directly to the Department of Homeland Security, Immigration and Customs Enforcement. You can contact ICE via email at Immigration.Reply@dhs.gov or you can telephone ICE at 1-866-347-2423. All reported threads/posts containing reference to immigration fraud or illegal activities will be removed from this board. If you feel that you have found inappropriate content, please let us know by contacting us here with a url link to that content. Thank you.
×