Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
one...two...tree

Identifying "Hot Spots" of Future Food Shortages Due to Climate Change

16 posts in this topic

Recommended Posts

Filed: Country: Philippines
Timeline

Southern Africa, India and Southeast Asia will be plagued with both high susceptibility and a lack of coping mechanisms as climate change takes its toll, according to models published in a new study.

The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research's (CGIAR) Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security identified world regions that will bear the brunt of climate change's consequences on food availability. The project's researchers measured current food security indicators and climate-sensitive zones in 2050, and the overlap between the two.

Other high-risk hot spots include Mexico, northeast Brazil, southern Africa and West Africa, assessed by indicators like future water availability, number of days above 30 degrees Celsius, length of the growing period, reliable growing days and high or low rainfall.

"In all of these areas, food security is always an issue," said Philip Thornton, one of the study's authors and a senior scientist at the International Livestock Research Institute. In addition to climate and economy, "these are areas where population increases are projected to carry on, adding more potential problems."

How productivity flips

The researchers mapped vulnerability to nine thresholds -- the points at which a region can "flip" from normal productivity to subpar yields. One example of a threshold is the 120-day growing period, the minimum length needed for a crop like corn to survive. If climate change causes growing periods to shrink to less than 120 days, it will take a significant toll on food sustainability.

Southern Africa -- encompassing Namibia, Angola, Zambia, Botswana, Mozambique and South Africa -- showed to be highly exposed to several of the eight thresholds. Spots in northeastern Brazil, Mexico, Pakistan, India and Afghanistan were also very vulnerable, concluded the study.

Food security indicators, a combination of economic, health, logistic and population statistics, assessed which areas are currently at greatest risk for hunger and malnutrition.

"Africa and South Africa are clearly much more chronically food insecure regions than Latin America or China," states the study. "In terms of resource pressure, again Africa is highlighted for population growth rates."

Market access, economy also key

North Africa, a region that will not be especially vulnerable to climate change according to the study's findings, ranked high in the number of hours needed to access a market. As seen in food riots earlier this year, the region is also sensitive to price volatility in international markets.

"One of the key areas in helping to provide food security is not simply an idea of more productivity, but also access and affordability of food to those who need it," said Thornton, in regard to North Africa.

But for the regions that are faced with increasingly stressful weather patterns, "there's a great deal that could be done to offset the impacts of climate change through adaptation, farming with new technology and government policies that are conducive to promoting small-holder agriculture," he said.

Crop substitution for a drier and warmer climate, converting cropland to livestock grazing land, and making better use of rainfall are proven methods.

"It's not particularly rocket science," he said.

Thornton's words reflect the conclusions of another report released this week. The nonprofit aid organization Oxfam released a food security report recommending government investment in small-scale farming and instituting concrete plans to deal with climate change. Continuing to follow the current system may drive food prices up 70 to 90 percent in the next 18 years, warns Oxfam.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=identifying-future-food-shortage-hot-spots-due-to-climate-change

Edited by 8TBVBN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Filed: K-1 Visa Country: China
Timeline

globalwarming.jpg

How productivity flips

The researchers mapped vulnerability to nine thresholds -- the points at which a region can "flip" from normal productivity to subpar yields. One example of a threshold is the 120-day growing period, the minimum length needed for a crop like corn to survive. If climate change causes growing periods to shrink to less than 120 days, it will take a significant toll on food sustainability

GLobal cooling?


If more citizens were armed, criminals would think twice about attacking them, Detroit Police Chief James Craig

Florida currently has more concealed-carry permit holders than any other state, with 1,269,021 issued as of May 14, 2014

The liberal elite ... know that the people simply cannot be trusted; that they are incapable of just and fair self-government; that left to their own devices, their society will be racist, sexist, homophobic, and inequitable -- and the liberal elite know how to fix things. They are going to help us live the good and just life, even if they have to lie to us and force us to do it. And they detest those who stand in their way."
- A Nation Of Cowards, by Jeffrey R. Snyder

Tavis Smiley: 'Black People Will Have Lost Ground in Every Single Economic Indicator' Under Obama

white-privilege.jpg?resize=318%2C318

Democrats>Socialists>Communists - Same goals, different speeds.

#DeplorableLivesMatter

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Brazil
Timeline
stupendousramu1493952.jpg

* ~ * Charles * ~ *
 

I carry a gun because a cop is too heavy.

 

USE THE REPORT BUTTON INSTEAD OF MESSAGING A MODERATOR!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Filed: Lift. Cond. (apr) Country: Spain
Timeline

Here's a little weather math for you that are science and math geniuses:

Colder some places 'here'

+

Hotter 'elsewhere'

=

Hotter temperatures all around.

What does that mean for the magnitude of the temperatures, weather-wise? :unsure:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
- Back to Top -


Important Disclaimer: Please read carefully the Visajourney.com Terms of Service. If you do not agree to the Terms of Service you should not access or view any page (including this page) on VisaJourney.com. Answers and comments provided on Visajourney.com Forums are general information, and are not intended to substitute for informed professional medical, psychiatric, psychological, tax, legal, investment, accounting, or other professional advice. Visajourney.com does not endorse, and expressly disclaims liability for any product, manufacturer, distributor, service or service provider mentioned or any opinion expressed in answers or comments. VisaJourney.com does not condone immigration fraud in any way, shape or manner. VisaJourney.com recommends that if any member or user knows directly of someone involved in fraudulent or illegal activity, that they report such activity directly to the Department of Homeland Security, Immigration and Customs Enforcement. You can contact ICE via email at Immigration.Reply@dhs.gov or you can telephone ICE at 1-866-347-2423. All reported threads/posts containing reference to immigration fraud or illegal activities will be removed from this board. If you feel that you have found inappropriate content, please let us know by contacting us here with a url link to that content. Thank you.
×
×
  • Create New...