Oh! Come On! Where are the NOA2's?

[IndigoSkies 168]

What's going on here? Is it this high and dry when it comes to approval?

[BigSigh 12]

Ummm..check on Igor's list. There are some new names....mine being one of them. 2 Marchers have been approved since 6/1.

[Indy90 21]

What's going on here? Is it this high and dry when it comes to approval?

Expect to wait quite a bit longer. According to your timelineyour NOA1 came on April 27th. My NOA1 was on 12-28 and my NOA2 on 3-18, a time period of 80 days ( but we were lucky). You have hardly even waited a month. There is a 99 percent chance that you are less than half way through your NAO2 waiting period. After its been 70 days, you can start thinking about approval, but expect it to take at least 100 days and don't be surprised if it takes 5 months. Review the timelines of people that received their NOA1s around the same time and I doubt that any of them have received their NOA2s.

It is a long long process.

[johndoe12 2]

I agree with you Indy90. I think the wait time is at least 90 days (unless you are lucky) and can go up to 5 months. Just start worrying once you get to that 90 day period.

[IndigoSkies 168]

I'm not worried about my own. I accepted the fact that this will take at least 3 months. So two more months for me. I just want to see other people getting approved. You know, it makes you feel like the process is moving along and not really stuck.

How do I get to Igor's list?

Edited June 3, 2010 by IndigoSkies

[BigSigh 12]

Go to the Immigration Timelines at the top of the screen. On the right hand side, there is something that says Processing Times: Igor's list. Then just make sure you change what you are looking at to CR1 from I-129F and then the I-130 and California and all of that good stuff.

http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/monthly_filers.php?visa=3&form=2&scenter=1&option=2&sortby=2

here is a link.

[IndigoSkies 168]

Nice. Nice. Four approvals in June already; filed during February. Thank you for the link.

Now I'm going to use this data ro run some what-if scenarios. BRB.

[johndoe12 2]

Let me know the scenarios as well.

[IndigoSkies 168]

Take you NOA1 date and add 85 to it. Then add 113 to it. My NOA1 date is 27-APR-2010. Add 85, get 20-JUL-2010. Add 113, get 18-AUG-2010.

So if these data hold true, I expect my NOA2 to between 20-JUL AND 18-AUG. VJ timelines says 31--JUL to 20-AUG, 2010. Not a whole lot of difference. But still, I feel contented somehow.

Edited June 3, 2010 by IndigoSkies

[IndigoSkies 168]

I also used the bottom list from Igor's List with 83 sample data points. The average days between NOA1 and NOA2 is 67. by that, my NOA2 should be here by 02-JUL-2010. -fingers crossed-

[johndoe12 2]

Nice work. Hopefully it holds true. My dates would be end of June to middle of July. Doubt it will happen that quickly but if it does, I will go crazy.

[IndigoSkies 168]

Using all 531 data point availble, the average days between NOA1 and NOA2 is 83 days. By that, my NOA2 will be here on or by the 18-JUL-2010. That was the first ever estimate I got from VJ TIMELINE. I feel like a kid in the candy store with this data. I'm going to refine these stuff so much and come up with so many new interesting information. I'm a data #######. Yes, I admitted it.

[johndoe12 2]

LOL!!! I think everyone will be using your data to get their information as well. Dont go crazy with all the data. Just wait till the end of the month and then start doing this.

[IndigoSkies 168]

As you can see from this above analysis, as little as 7% of the case are approved with 30 days. Thirty-five percent of the cases are approved within 60 days of NOA1. About 94% of the case are approved within 150 days or five months. That leaves 6% percent to wait it out beyond 5 months. But rest assured knowing 100% of you will have your cases approved within 240 days or eight months. Pretty interesting stuff. 7% of you are some lucky sons of gentle-women.

My data analysis also reveals Dave and Agnes were approved within 1 days of NOA1. I'm calling BS on Dave and Agnes.

Do you hear me, Dave and Agnes? I said, "BS ON YOU!"

Edited June 3, 2010 by IndigoSkies

[BigSigh 12]

Glad you like to have fun with numbers! Interesting data you have there.