Georgia/Russia Conflict

[Kotenochek 0]

I hope you are not angry at me, I meant no offense. I do have an opinion, and believe me, it does not go over well with my wife. I personally think that Russia is flexing its mucsles a little bit at the expense of Georgia. Put a little fear in the masses, so to speak. Poland, Latvia, Lituania, Ukraine, all the Stans will all think twice before trying to deal with or talk tough with Russia. That is my personal opinion, based on what I am reading, and a good bit of history.

No of course I am not mad at anybody here...all i want is violence to stop..

P.S> thanks for supporting!

[1HappyGuy 45]

Bobalouie, are you serious? Why would Russia need to flex its muscles? Have you not been following the tactics of Russia for the past few years.

Russia has eastern Europe by the short hairs regarding fuel oil and gas. They have interrupted heating oil deliveries to any country that dares to question them and cut off gas supplies. Why would Russia feel it is necessary to bomb an oil pipeline that travels through Georgia carrying non-Russian oil (it's also not Georgian oil)? They dropped trade with Estonia over a stupid statue.

Russia is testing the waters, to see how far it can push it's pressure on the FSU countries. Why do you think some countries are applying for Nato membership?

And, as a practical matter, who is going to stop them? It surely is not the USA, that was made apparent by Bush and Rice.

[Ilya R. 0]

and couple days ago my cousine had to go through hell..since he is a driver of the train that goes through Kaspi...He had to go there to bring people back from vacations where they were stuck...On the Way Russians came in and riped clothes from women,just to humiliate,they touched them,had sex with couple,Of course Georgian guys tried to protect them,but they got beat up and some got shoot..My cousine crowled back home to his 2 babies(2,and 5 year olds),he was so beat up he cant even walk..and guess what if he done anything wrong he would be one of those 6000 that nobody cares about:(

Now think..what these people that suffer have done?Nothing!

Its very sad and all, my wife's friend's grandma is from one of South Ossetian's village(Ovnevi), actually she was, until her village was burned down by Georgian soldiers, who shot 2 men and also raped and pillaged from them. All in front of the elderly and kids. She lives in St. Petersburg (my wife) and I never thought that this whole conflict could be so close to her, but this world is very small. And very cruel. Just to add, one thing she recalled is that their uniform looked very new and very "foreign" (aka supplied by US. of A.)

[Bobalouie 0]

Bobalouie, are you serious? Why would Russia need to flex its muscles? Have you not been following the tactics of Russia for the past few years.

Russia has eastern Europe by the short hairs regarding fuel oil and gas. They have interrupted heating oil deliveries to any country that dares to question them and cut off gas supplies. Why would Russia feel it is necessary to bomb an oil pipeline that travels through Georgia carrying non-Russian oil (it's also not Georgian oil)? They dropped trade with Estonia over a stupid statue.

Russia is testing the waters, to see how far it can push it's pressure on the FSU countries. Why do you think some countries are applying for Nato membership?

And, as a practical matter, who is going to stop them? It surely is not the USA, that was made apparent by Bush and Rice.

Yes, I am serious. That is where the history comes in. Throughout history, whenever a sattelite country caused a little trouble, Russia hit them with a very big hammer. There is no such thing as a handslap from the Russian government. Throughout history, the Russian government has been the one you "dont mess with" because they will take it to a level no one else wants to go to prove a point. The Czech uprising in 1968, and Baku in 1990 come to mind. Russia wants the sattelites back. At the very least they want to have unilateral control over the sattelites because Nato and the EU are already knocking at the door in several locations.

Why does Russia feel its necessary to bomb that pipeline? Because that pipeline was put in place to intentionally bypass Russia to service Europe with Caspian Sea crude and gas. When the plans were being drawn up there were two choices, one went thru Russia and the other thru the Caucasian Mts. The mountain route was more difficult and costly to build, but it did not allow Russia control of the valves and thus Russia does not control all the oil that goes to Europe, but they do control the lions share. The destruction of that pipeline means that they would control almost all of it. The bombing (and missing the target) was an intentional reminder of who has economic control without actually causing a shortage.

Russia has been flexing its muscles now for 3 years, but until now it has not made the mainstream press. 3 years ago they resumed long range TU-95 bomber flights over the pole and to Alaska, the same flights from the Cold war that SAC in the US also flew and discontinued in 1992. Bombers have been turned around by Raptors from Alaskan bases. They have also recently started harassing carrier groups as well. So, this is nothing new, the Russian government has been feeling its military oats again and seeks to prove without a doubt that they are a military power again. The Bear has teeth so to speak, and is willing to bite.

Edited August 19, 2008 by Bobalouie

[Brad and Vika 129]

and couple days ago my cousine had to go through hell..since he is a driver of the train that goes through Kaspi...He had to go there to bring people back from vacations where they were stuck...On the Way Russians came in and riped clothes from women,just to humiliate,they touched them,had sex with couple,Of course Georgian guys tried to protect them,but they got beat up and some got shoot..My cousine crowled back home to his 2 babies(2,and 5 year olds),he was so beat up he cant even walk..and guess what if he done anything wrong he would be one of those 6000 that nobody cares about:(

Now think..what these people that suffer have done?Nothing!

Its very sad and all, my wife's friend's grandma is from one of South Ossetian's village(Ovnevi), actually she was, until her village was burned down by Georgian soldiers, who shot 2 men and also raped and pillaged from them. All in front of the elderly and kids. She lives in St. Petersburg (my wife) and I never thought that this whole conflict could be so close to her, but this world is very small. And very cruel. Just to add, one thing she recalled is that their uniform looked very new and very "foreign" (aka supplied by US. of A.)

Ilya, I am sorry too for your troubles, and feel sympathy for your family. Thanks for the post, as it helps us to understand where you are coming from. It must be very tough to look at Georgia with much objectivity if your wife's relatives are on the other side, and suffering too.

Edited August 19, 2008 by Brad and Vika

[slim 1,533]

Its easy for you guys talk shitt about Georgia,if your fsmily was there you would thing differently..and again Russian web pages are like a yellow press,no even tiny thing of truth there...ust read pages on all languages availible for you and analyze..Have your own opinion,not what your government wants you to think...

My opinion is such that folks from a small country need to be extremely careful when dealing with a larger country right next door. Also, if they want to maintain sovereignty, they should take action to protect themselves and/or form alliances that will be beneficial to them.

Georgia gambled here... and lost. (They also placed a lot of faith in the U.S. but realized all to late that the U.S. had no interest in fighting Russia. Also a gamble, also a loss.)

To see a successful way of doing this, check out the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Successfully gambling since 1953!

and couple days ago my cousine had to go through hell..since he is a driver of the train that goes through Kaspi...He had to go there to bring people back from vacations where they were stuck...On the Way Russians came in and riped clothes from women,just to humiliate,they touched them,had sex with couple,Of course Georgian guys tried to protect them,but they got beat up and some got shoot..My cousine crowled back home to his 2 babies(2,and 5 year olds),he was so beat up he cant even walk..and guess what if he done anything wrong he would be one of those 6000 that nobody cares about:(

Now think..what these people that suffer have done?Nothing!

Exactly why they're suffering.

I don't say that to be critical or harsh, I say that to open our own eyes to what is possible. Too many people take for granted that in this day and age countries still get invaded, people still get killed, and society as a whole still breaks down to it's most barbaric roots. We have a natural advantage to avoid this (geography) and have taken numerous steps (relative freedom at home, strong economic and military domination abroad) to avoid this scenario playing out on U.S. soil. However, if/when something like this happens, if the common people (train drivers, cousins, tourists) are unable to defend themselves against aggression, then the aggressors have free reign to do as they please without regard for humanity.

We're sliding into a trend of voluntarily allowing our rights to be taken away and, in turn, it's decreasing our security posture on the most basic of levels. We have to stop doing this or else we'll be subject to being overtaken by an enemy force, even right here at home.

Its very sad and all, my wife's friend's grandma is from one of South Ossetian's village(Ovnevi), actually she was, until her village was burned down by Georgian soldiers, who shot 2 men and also raped and pillaged from them. All in front of the elderly and kids. She lives in St. Petersburg (my wife) and I never thought that this whole conflict could be so close to her, but this world is very small. And very cruel. Just to add, one thing she recalled is that their uniform looked very new and very "foreign" (aka supplied by US. of A.)

Proof that "help" doesn't always come from "the good guys."

Russia has been flexing its muscles now for 3 years, but until now it has not made the mainstream press. 3 years ago they resumed long range TU-95 bomber flights over the pole and to Alaska, the same flights from the Cold war that SAC in the US also flew and discontinued in 1992. Bombers have been turned around by Raptors from Alaskan bases. They have also recently started harassing carrier groups as well. So, this is nothing new, the Russian government has been feeling its military oats again and seeks to prove without a doubt that they are a military power again. The Bear has teeth so to speak, and is willing to bite.

Why should China have all the fun?

In truth, Russia is playing it's only card left. It lacks the financial ability to compete with the U.S. (and now China) on the global market but it's still a force to be reckoned with, the good ol' fashioned way. Sure you can pay money for business and invest in infrastucture... but we can bomb you back to the stone age.

Even in the most modern of times, military might is still a pretty good bargaining chip. It works even if it's the only one you have left.... Especially if it's the only one you have left. (Once again, see the DPRK.)

[KGSodie 0]

I truly hate to enter the fray here, but I'd be interested in hearing more of your thoughts on China, Kirk. You use the phrase 'respect and engagement', but there's a fine line between that and appeasement, and with the wrong type of leader/government/madman, this can be exactly the wrong approach. My mind isn't made up on China yet.

[1HappyGuy 45]

Bobalouie, you might find this hard to believe, but I actually agree with you. Russia is using these tactics to show the world, especially western Europe, what true economic power they have. Anyone that thinks Russia (i.e. Putin) is not longing for the return of the soviet times is just kidding themselves. Putin wants it all back and under his influence. His threats and strong arm tactics have been very evident, especially when any FSU looks for Nato membership.

I agree, that Russia was pretty weak after the breakup of the Soviet Union, but not as bad as all of the other FSU's. Now that Russia has found it's true economic power they are looking to recover what they still believe is theirs. This is why some of the FSU countries are looking toward Nato. Life under the soviet regime was not all that great, especially freedoms we in America take for granted.

We have not seen the last of Putin's aggressions.

[Ilya R. 0]

Bobalouie, you might find this hard to believe, but I actually agree with you. Russia is using these tactics to show the world, especially western Europe, what true economic power they have. Anyone that thinks Russia (i.e. Putin) is not longing for the return of the soviet times is just kidding themselves. Putin wants it all back and under his influence. His threats and strong arm tactics have been very evident, especially when any FSU looks for Nato membership.

I agree, that Russia was pretty weak after the breakup of the Soviet Union, but not as bad as all of the other FSU's. Now that Russia has found it's true economic power they are looking to recover what they still believe is theirs. This is why some of the FSU countries are looking toward Nato. Life under the soviet regime was not all that great, especially freedoms we in America take for granted.

We have not seen the last of Putin's aggressions.

Living in Russia today is nothing compared to what it was in 60's-90's, and stop making a monster out of Putin. He might be a strict leader, but he gets things done, and his people (most) trust him. People in Russia are becoming more happier, make more money, afford new things, they want to live like westerns. You should visit Russia and see how much the standard of life has changed, nobody wants to go back to Soviet Union, except for maybe elderly population who are just too used to it to change. They want to live like the British like the Americans, but with culture of Russia. People in Russia express their feelings more open now, they are allowed to do whatever they feel like, they can afford much more. The only way you'll see Russia being aggressive again, is only if it is provoked, if its cornered. Precisely what NATO is doing right now. Just take a look at NATO and Rice, making Sakashivli the victim here, not one negative thing is said about him by most of ex soviet republics or USA.

[Bobalouie 0]

I truly hate to enter the fray here, but I'd be interested in hearing more of your thoughts on China, Kirk. You use the phrase 'respect and engagement', but there's a fine line between that and appeasement, and with the wrong type of leader/government/madman, this can be exactly the wrong approach. My mind isn't made up on China yet.

Come in...the water's fine.

The term "appeasement" is really a loaded term these days, and it's often used by politicians to indicate weakness and acquiescence to unreasonable demands (i.e., "my opponent wants to appease the terrorists."). The most famous use of appeasement was of course the Munich Agreement, and it's where the negative connotation comes from. But up until that point, appeasement simply meant negotiations with your enemy, a give and take that mostly satisfied all parties. It's an anathema idea to this "do as we say not as we do" ideology that America has adopted in recent years (and not just under Bush).

Russia and China share one really important quality, which Kevin I'm sure you are truly aware of: they are extremely sensitive to insult. The Bush administration, to their credit, seem to understand this about China, and have avoided the damaging rhetoric they use for every other country in the world. I personally don't think they've done enough to engage China on important topics such as human rights, but for this administration, the fact that they haven't irretrievably damaged any relationship with China is sadly their greatest foreign policy accomplishment. Why they don't understand this about Russia (especially with Condoleezza Rice in their midst) is beyond me. The more demands we make of Russia, the more they dig their heels in, and the harder it makes it for Russia to take any other position than belligerent. I'm not saying we should treat Russia with a light hand, but that needs to be done in back rooms and back channels. Again, like we do for China.

The China model is a model we need to use with Russia. As much as the hawks harken for the good old days, Russia is not the Soviet Union, and they're not trying to go back to their old "sphere of influence" days. But they're also not going to tolerate a Western sphere of containment either, and they won't tolerate being hemmed in by NATO. So it's no wonder that they were itching for a fight in Georgia, and it's no wonder they're dragging their heels on the way out. Russia have sent a message to the world that they're not going to tolerate NATO expansion any longer, and the West had better sit up and listen. If we want peace with Russia, we're going to have to give something up, and that means giving up NATO membership for Georgia. That's what appeasement is really about.

Why should Georgia or Ukraine not have the right of self-determination. By your appeasement, you do not allow them to determine and then persue what they feel is the best route for their country's future. As I recall, NATO has been "hemming in" Russia for its entire existance. The only difference between then and now was they had a buffer of other countries that provided time to coordinate a counter attack against an aggressor before that aggressor could make it all the way to Mother Russia. So, I find the logic that they are worried about NATO on their doorstep to be a little flawed. I can see where you are comming from, but they are trying to go back to the "old spheres of influence" days. How can you say that and in the same paragraph say that "appeasement" should perclude Georgia from NATO. Wouldnt that be putting Georgia firmly into the Russian "sphere of influence"? Wouldnt it be Russia's military actions that influenced the West not to persue that course of action?

I would hazard a guess (hold on while I put my armchair strategist hat on) that Ukraine and Georgia want into the EU and NATO because they have seen what happens when a former Soviet bloc country makes that move. EU money for roads, schools, better economy, etc. Just look at Latvia, Estonia, and the other Baltics that made the change. They also want a little bit of a hedge against the big hammer that Russia has historically smacked the little guys around with.

I do agree with you about Russia digging their heels in because of our rhetoric. It would be nice, if the administration would take a trip to Russia, like most of us have, and talk to the people on the ground, not the handlers, or govt officials. Everyone I have met doesnt care too much for alot of the things Putin has done, but they are willing to turn a blind eye to those transgressions because they value the stability he brings to the table. The sooner the West (especially our administration) gets off of their soapbox and figures out that Russian Democracy is not Western Democracy and never will be, but the PEOPLE are OK with that for now, the better off the world will be.

[franklie 0]

here is a link to site that shows a bit of what is happening in Georgia

http://www.navoine.ru/forum/viewtopic.php?p=551

I don't read Cyrillic.

Warning: some of the pictures are pretty intense.

[slim 1,533]

Beers on me if our paths ever cross Slim.

I'll take you up on that! And once again, shouldn't it say when instead of if?

As for the rest of the posts on here..... I feel like I'm back in History class again debating the finer points of the geo-political climate. OUTSTANDING JOB!!! It's not very often on VJ that you get to see a long list of "debated topics" before you see someone drop the "Oh yeah? Well my dad can beat up your dad cause you're a poo-poo head." Bravo, gentlemen. Bravo.

[Brad and Vika 129]

hey mox anyone you know? she not showing much yet ill post some more later when she gets bigger

I thought she was supposed to be four or five months along oh.... two months ago? What gives? Does the Korat Kalendar work differently?

[NavarreMan 10]

On That Note>>>

Have a beer on me

[NavarreMan 10]

Yep,

One of my co-workers was razzing me yesterday saying "Tell your wife we want our Hummer back!"