Poll: Obama holds commanding lead with Hispanics

[mendeleev 67]

Poll: Obama holds commanding lead with Hispanics

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5905184.html

Poll: Obama holds commanding lead with Hispanics

WASHINGTON -- Hispanic support for Republicans has collapsed in the past four years, driven by immigration, the sagging economy and the Iraq war, a new poll has found.

The poll of 2,015 Latino voters conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center found that Democrat Barack Obama, who lost the Hispanic vote to Hillary Clinton by nearly 2-to-1 in the Democratic primary, holds a commanding 66 percent to 23 percent lead over Republican presidential candidate John McCain.

The Democratic tide in the Latino community is so strong that Obama leads among every nationality group, including the historically Republican Cuban-American population, where Obama now leads, 53 percent to 29 percent.

The Illinois Democrat is running far ahead among Mexican-Americans, who cast about 40 percent of their ballots for George W. Bush in 2004. Among voters of Mexican ancestry, Obama leads McCain, 70 percent to 21 percent.

Obama is running so far ahead that he has the support of 25 percent of Hispanics who identify themselves as Republicans and holds an edge of about 5-to-1 among Latinos who consider themselves political independents.

President Bush's approval rating among Latinos has plummeted to 27 percent. More than three-fourths of Hispanic voters have a favorable impression of Obama, while McCain -- who has regularly won majority support among Mexican-Americans in his home state of Arizona -- is viewed favorably by just 44 percent of Latinos nationally.

Unless McCain can reverse the GOP slide, the Hispanic vote could prove pivotal to Obama in traditionally Republican states such as Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, and could help him close what has been a significant gap in Florida. It also could help the Democrat in three states that went Republican in 2004 but have small but rapidly increasing Hispanic populations: Iowa, Virginia and North Carolina.

While Latino participation in the electoral process has lagged far behind that of Caucasians and African Americans, the Pew report found that Hispanic voting in the 2008 primaries has been sharply up and that 17 percent of Latino primary voters indicated that they were going to the polls for the first time. Seventy-eight percent of Hispanics say they are closely following the election this year.

Hispanics make up 15 percent of the U.S. population and 9 percent of its registered voters. The Pew report estimates that by 2050, Hispanics will comprise 29 percent of the nation's population.

These latest poll numbers portend a tough year for Republicans unless McCain and other GOP candidates can find a way to change the mood of Hispanic voters.

The Pew survey finds the largest Democratic lead in party identification in its decade of polling -- a 39 percentage point edge. Just 16 percent of registered Hispanic voters say they are Republicans, and another 10 percent are independents who lean to the GOP.

That Democratic edge has nearly doubled in the past two years, from a 49 percent to 28 percent edge in 2006 to today's 65 percent to 26 percent advantage.

Obama leads McCain among all issues in the Hispanic community. On immigration, the Democrat has a huge advantage -- even though his rival from Arizona has a liberal record on immigration -- 59 percent to 19 percent. Half of Latinos say Obama would be better for immigrants, while just 12 percent say McCain would help immigrants more.

On the war in Iraq, Latinos trust Obama more to handle it, 58 percent to 27 percent -- dashing Republicans' hopes to appeal to the "patriotism factor" in Hispanic Americans. And on jobs, Hispanics prefer Obama, 65 percent to 19 percent.

While the hard-line rhetoric of some Republican conservatives has alienated many Latinos, the issue of immigration appears to have receded a bit as a voting issue. While 75 percent of Hispanics say immigration is "extremely" or "very" important to them, it lagsbehind education, Latino's top concern at 93 percent, and pocketbook issues such as the rising cost of living (92 percent), jobs (91 percent) and health care (90 percent).

Other findings:

-- Two-thirds of Hispanic voters are native-born. One-third are naturalized citizens. Native-born Hispanics are slightly more likely to back McCain (26 percent, vs. 19 percent for immigrants).

-- Twenty-five percent of registered Latino voters are under the age of 30. Just 18 percent are 60 or older.

-- Young Latinos are the most likely to identify with the Democratic Party and to support Obama. The Illinois senator holds a 73 percent to 16 percent lead among under-30 voters and a 59 percent to 25 percent lead among over-60 voters (McCain's best group).

-- Obama leads among highly educated and less-educated Hispanics: 5-to-1 among high school dropouts and 5-to-2 among college grads.

-- McCain cannot gain traction even among the wealthiest Hispanics, who lean to Obama by about 2-to-1. Latinos earning under $30,000 are even more strongly for the Democrat, 68 percent to 18 percent.

-- The best news for Republicans is the fact that one-third of Hispanics report being Protestant. One-third of evangelical and mainline Protestant Hispanics are Republican, about twice as many as Hispanic Catholics.

-- The most strongly Democratic group based on location of origin remains Puerto Ricans, who favor Obama, 73 percent to 14 percent.

-- Obama leads among Hispanics who are satisfied with the country's direction (52 percent to 41 percent) and among those who think it's headed in the wrong direction (72 percent to 16 percent).

-- Obama's race does not appear to be an issue with Latinos, despite stories in the national media describing alleged racism in the Hispanic community. There is no difference in voting preferences among Latinos who say Obama's race is a factor in deciding their vote as those who say it isn't.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

It's only July.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

It's only July.

...the 24th. One month from now, August 24th....then September 24th, October 24th...November 4th.

About 100 days left...

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

It's only July.

...the 24th. One month from now, August 24th....then September 24th, October 24th...November 4th.

About 100 days left...

You do know that McCain will win this thing, don't you?

[one...two...tree 2,762]

It's only July.

...the 24th. One month from now, August 24th....then September 24th, October 24th...November 4th.

About 100 days left...

You do know that McCain will win this thing, don't you?

...and Gary will come around to accepting Global Warming as real.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

It's only July.

...the 24th. One month from now, August 24th....then September 24th, October 24th...November 4th.

About 100 days left...

You do know that McCain will win this thing, don't you?

...and Gary will come around to accepting Global Warming as real.

Watch that cockiness, dude.

McCain will win. Until he doesn't.

[almaty 19]

viva la raza

[mendeleev 67]

It's only July.

...the 24th. One month from now, August 24th....then September 24th, October 24th...November 4th.

About 100 days left...

You do know that McCain will win this thing, don't you?

...and Gary will come around to accepting Global Warming as real.

Watch that cockiness, dude.

A.J. is right on one thing. Never count McCain out. He is tenacious. Obama needs to work hard to win this thing and he will need lots of support. He might win big, but he could also lose.

[SteveLaura 0]

It's only July.

...the 24th. One month from now, August 24th....then September 24th, October 24th...November 4th.

About 100 days left...

You do know that McCain will win this thing, don't you?

...and Gary will come around to accepting Global Warming as real.

Haven't seen Gary for a while. Word has it he was approached by two clean-looking young girls on a street corner, asking if he wanted to take part in a survey on the threat of global warming. Got in the van and is now being brain-washed by the Al Gore Cult. Sleep deprivation, 'An Inconvenient Truth' 24/7 and a step ladder to avoid the rising sea levels. He'll be a changed man when he returns, no doubt about it, poor guy.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Maybe he thought it was a CFNM version of bangbus.............

[SteveLaura 0]

I had to look up CFNM. I'm so sheltered.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

[SteveLaura 0]

Oh, and I had to look up 'bangbus' on Wikipedia too...

Apparently it won 'Best Amateur Release' at the 2006 Adult Video News Awards. Interesting choice of words there for the award, I thought.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

It's only July.

...the 24th. One month from now, August 24th....then September 24th, October 24th...November 4th.

About 100 days left...

You do know that McCain will win this thing, don't you?

...and Gary will come around to accepting Global Warming as real.

Haven't seen Gary for a while. Word has it he was approached by two clean-looking young girls on a street corner, asking if he wanted to take part in a survey on the threat of global warming. Got in the van and is now being brain-washed by the Al Gore Cult. Sleep deprivation, 'An Inconvenient Truth' 24/7 and a step ladder to avoid the rising sea levels. He'll be a changed man when he returns, no doubt about it, poor guy.

Excellent. That's how most of us joined that bandwagon.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Oh, and I had to look up 'bangbus' on Wikipedia too...

Apparently it won 'Best Amateur Release' at the 2006 Adult Video News Awards. Interesting choice of words there for the award, I thought.