Cokes

Haha,  realize a more general topic had already been posted. Admins can feel free to delete this thread~
 
I just thought the fact that it claimed that I-129f processing time is 5-7 months at this moment (Feb 18,2023) was kind of amusing, since ChatGPT is currently still limited to 2021 data. I admire ChatGPT's confidence in USCIS 🤣

Haha,  realize a more general topic had already been posted. Admins can feel free to delete this thread~
 
I just thought the fact that it claimed that I-129f processing time is 5-7 months at this moment (Feb 18,2023) was kind of amusing, since ChatGPT is currently still limited to 2021 data. I admire ChatGPT's confidence in USCIS 🤣

Haha,  realize a more general topic had already been posted. Admins can feel free to delete this thread~
 
I just thought the fact that it claimed that I-129f processing time is 5-7 months at this moment (Feb 18,2023) was kind of amusing, since ChatGPT is currently still limited to 2021 data. I admire ChatGPT's confidence in USCIS 🤣

LOL, I asked ChatGTP this question for fun. Although its answer is wrong, but I hope it's much more wiser than anyone else 🤣

TBH I'd be over the moon if we can get to 12 months by this coming December!
 
🤩

Happy to reach out once your message get through the system to me.  The graph I presented is a direct (visual) translation of the quarterly forms issued by USCIS since 2013.
(along with source data addresses)....  As for the backlog burndown, I don't know of anyone else doing that exactly.  My script (looking only at 2021 cases) was custom built and uses a custom data record to keep track.  If (and I know it is if) you have coding skills, I can share some of the lessons learned and some psudo code to let you build your own.  It is something that is not refined and not easily maintained (since the USCIS site does tend to crash from time to time)
 

Great job on the analyses everyone... @Cokes I am also December 2022... 🤐

Cokes ... a few pointers (and some depressing news)
The latest public report of backlog from USCIS (directly) can be fo und at 
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY2022_Q4.pdf
This can generally be found with a search engine search for "USCIS Quarterly service wide all forms" and looking for the PDF
Remember that USCIS Fiscal year is 1 Quarter ahead of Calandar Year (i.e. Q1 2023 would end Dec 31,2022) and this has not been published yet
 
So I can't comment on final backlog numbers through Dec 2022 but here is the sad story.
Up until these final weeks, USCIS had only been processing hundreds of cases per week resulting in
between 5k and 7k cases per Quarter.  The backlog as of September 30, 2022 reached 55,425 cases

The USCIS has speed up processing and (as of now) is processing ~1k cases a week.
If they maintain this pace, you are looking at 55 weeks before you would even start to see the backlog to September 2022 be ajudicated.
It could go faster ... or slower ... but in any case it will be a very painful road for Dec 2022 filers.
 
Happy to share this XLS with you showing the history of case log all the way back to 2013
Just send me an email and lets connect.



 

Thanks a lot @AndiB and @New Romantics, now I've got a better idea of how the backlog was estimated. I did a simple linear regression (y=21.727x+355.27, R^2=0.6707) of "holiday excluded process case/week" from September 2022 to January 2023 based on results of the google sheets below that many people refer to.
 
This is a rather optimistic estimate based on the linear increase in case processed through the recent 4 months. Hopefully this is something to look forward to and hope we can all receive our NOA2s soon (fingers crossed).
 
Google sheets ref:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1sN2bo1xZhs8oVU6-QDUdBXBX2_ci8_QJ0wiz59Gp6H4/htmlview?fbclid=IwAR0jCyuMTAY_9YYgYelthZXTEs__xxMMH6vH4e2pwUHX44d5EUed296MJV8#
 

(The linear regression results from sept 2022 to jan 2023)

Hello, I'm a new member (Dec 2022 Filer) that has been following various case processing threads/google docs for several weeks now. Really appreciate the daily scanning and result compilation many members are doing, I can't imagine waiting for months up to years without having the general knowledge of cases being processed each month. There's a lot of well analyzed results of opened cases by members such as @mw & rg k1 and discussions backed by many google sheets analysis in @AndiB and @Anna Hessler's thread. However, I've been having hard time finding information about our current backlog estimate.
 
It seems like our current backlog estimate of various filers ranges from 38k ~ 55k and USCIS quarterly report does not seem to completely match with these numbers either. I'm wondering if anyone has data on monthly change in backlog in order to forecast the expected month NOA2?
 
I hope to find out info such as the following: 
Total backlog for each month (Sept 2021 - Jan 2023)  Backlog Delta each month = Backlog of pervious month + Total new filers this month - Number of cases closed per month (Accepted/Denied/Withdraw)  
Apologies in advance if my question does not make sense or had already been answered in other threads, I don't seem to be able to find a general consensus about the current backlog estimate. 

Thanks a lot @AndiB and @New Romantics, now I've got a better idea of how the backlog was estimated. I did a simple linear regression (y=21.727x+355.27, R^2=0.6707) of "holiday excluded process case/week" from September 2022 to January 2023 based on results of the google sheets below that many people refer to.
 
This is a rather optimistic estimate based on the linear increase in case processed through the recent 4 months. Hopefully this is something to look forward to and hope we can all receive our NOA2s soon (fingers crossed).
 
Google sheets ref:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1sN2bo1xZhs8oVU6-QDUdBXBX2_ci8_QJ0wiz59Gp6H4/htmlview?fbclid=IwAR0jCyuMTAY_9YYgYelthZXTEs__xxMMH6vH4e2pwUHX44d5EUed296MJV8#
 

(The linear regression results from sept 2022 to jan 2023)

I sadly won't be much help as I have the same question really but from what I can gather, it's somewhere between 38-48k between now and Oct filers, it seems to ave to about 3k pending by time they reach the month. Like Dec has 3.8k filed but by time USCIS got to dec 2021 there's about 3k pending. A lot seem to be rejected outright, approved (I assume expedites) or other processing.
 
If we use what was reported on 30 Sept 2021 there was 55,500 pending and we've processed about 9-10k since according to google sheets, which is where the upper (40k+) numbers come from but I'm not sure these account for expedites/rejected outright etc because if we assume about 3.5k pending per month (3.5k*11month to oct 22 filers) we get about 38k which is the lower bound.
 
The spreadsheet that quotes about 38k says they arrived to that number through scans, so not using the numbers reported by USCIS. Currently I'm leaning towards the 38k being more realistic but I still assume 40k+ to be safe until USCIS releases more data.

I vaguely saw but haven't re-read fully will do now. I agree with you though, everything *seems* to point to 38k being more accurate than the 47k we've been running with

I don't know if you read the other thread but it looks like uscis data itself doesn't match up always. They have discrepancies. So 38k or so might actually be right

Yeah, it's about how many are in front of us. So if, like you said, people have scanned 38k, (3.5k*11). I think it makes a lot of sense