Labor Shortages: Myth and Reality

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

How tight is the U.S. labor market? At 4.6% of the workforce, the official unemployment rate is certainly low by historical standards.

...

Many fear it'll get worse in the wake of the Bush Administration's decision to crack down on undocumented workers.

...

David Rosenberg isn't buying it. North American economist at Merrill Lynch, he is one of a number of economists who say the concerns about too few workers are vastly overblown.

...

The issue may not be the number of workers, but rather the level of pay. Economists like Rosenberg argue that in a market economy, there's really no such thing as a true shortage. If you want more of something, you can pay more and have it. When employers say that there's a worker shortage, what they really mean is they can't get enough workers at the price they want to pay, the argument goes.

...

Rosenberg argues the simplest way to gauge whether there's a worker shortage is to look at the price of labor. According to the basic laws of economics, the tighter the supply of labor, the more it should cost. So if the economy were operating with full or near-full employment, we would be seeing an "explosion in labor compensation," he says.

The price of labor, however, is hardly surging. In fact, key indicators of employee costs show they are tracking or trailing inflation.

http://www.businessweek.com/print/bwdaily/...0821_451283.htm

[isleta521 5]

There will be a labor shortage here at work in about ten minutes cause I'm outa here.

[mawilson 2,133]

Are illegal workers included in the 4.6%?

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Economists like Rosenberg argue that in a market economy, there's really no such thing as a true shortage. If you want more of something, you can pay more and have it.

My problem with this argument is this: when you're talking about a good or service, if there's a shortage, the price will go up and someone will show up to produce the required supply to meet demand. But we're not talking about goods or services, we're talking about people. Who 'produces' more people fast enough to meet the demands of the labor market? Natural production takes 20+ years to mature. How else can you introduce new supply into the labor force? Immigration - legal or illegal. What happens when you reduce the number of immigrants - legal or illegal - in the workforce? You decrease supply.

[Lansbury 19]

The issue may not be the number of workers, but rather the level of pay. Economists like Rosenberg argue that in a market economy, there's really no such thing as a true shortage. If you want more of something, you can pay more and have it. When employers say that there's a worker shortage, what they really mean is they can't get enough workers at the price they want to pay, the argument goes.

There is some truth in that. I have turned down 2 jobs because I wasn't prepared to do the work for what they offered in pay.

In fact I have chosen to work as a volunteer for the Red Cross rather than 8 hours a day for a company for a pittance so they can boost their profits.

[mawilson 2,133]

Who 'produces' more people fast enough to meet the demands of the labor market? Natural production takes 20+ years to mature. How else can you introduce new supply into the labor force?

I imagine the currently unemployed Americans (4.6% of 300 million is 13.8 million people --

more than the estimated number of illegal immigrants.)

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Who 'produces' more people fast enough to meet the demands of the labor market? Natural production takes 20+ years to mature. How else can you introduce new supply into the labor force?

I imagine the currently unemployed Americans (4.6% of 300 million is 13.8 million people --

more than the estimated number of illegal immigrants.)

I suspect a very large proportion of that 4.6% are outright unemployable.

ETA: Also, I believe it's 4.6% of the labor force, not of 300 million. The labor force doesn't include the elderly, children, adults who don't intend to work, etc. It also doesn't include adults who've dropped out of the workforce. That last category may be coaxed back in, but I don't have that hope for the rest.

Edited August 22, 2007 by VJ Troll

[mawilson 2,133]

Who 'produces' more people fast enough to meet the demands of the labor market? Natural production takes 20+ years to mature. How else can you introduce new supply into the labor force?

I imagine the currently unemployed Americans (4.6% of 300 million is 13.8 million people --

more than the estimated number of illegal immigrants.)

I suspect a very large proportion of that 4.6% are outright unemployable.

ETA: Also, I believe it's 4.6% of the labor force, not of 300 million. The labor force doesn't include the elderly, children, adults who don't intend to work, etc. It also doesn't include adults who've dropped out of the workforce. That last category may be coaxed back in, but I don't have that hope for the rest.

I believe you're right. It's 4.6% of the labor force, so it's less than 300 million,

but all of them should be employable.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Economists like Rosenberg argue that in a market economy, there's really no such thing as a true shortage. If you want more of something, you can pay more and have it.

My problem with this argument is this: when you're talking about a good or service, if there's a shortage, the price will go up and someone will show up to produce the required supply to meet demand. But we're not talking about goods or services, we're talking about people. Who 'produces' more people fast enough to meet the demands of the labor market? Natural production takes 20+ years to mature. How else can you introduce new supply into the labor force? Immigration - legal or illegal. What happens when you reduce the number of immigrants - legal or illegal - in the workforce? You decrease supply.

Only way to do it is to import services (people) on a larger scale, or learn how to clone Americans.

[Gaby&Talbert 1]

Are illegal aliens even allowed to collect unemployment? I would think if you dont have papers to be employed then the same would be required to collect unemployment? The numbers reported are the people that are recieving unemployment right?

Economists like Rosenberg argue that in a market economy, there's really no such thing as a true shortage. If you want more of something, you can pay more and have it.

My problem with this argument is this: when you're talking about a good or service, if there's a shortage, the price will go up and someone will show up to produce the required supply to meet demand. But we're not talking about goods or services, we're talking about people. Who 'produces' more people fast enough to meet the demands of the labor market? Natural production takes 20+ years to mature. How else can you introduce new supply into the labor force? Immigration - legal or illegal. What happens when you reduce the number of immigrants - legal or illegal - in the workforce? You decrease supply.

Only way to do it is to import services (people) on a larger scale, or learn how to clone Americans.

How long did it take to create clones in the Star Wars clones?

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Are illegal aliens even allowed to collect unemployment? I would think if you dont have papers to be employed then the same would be required to collect unemployment? The numbers reported are the people that are recieving unemployment right?

Economists like Rosenberg argue that in a market economy, there's really no such thing as a true shortage. If you want more of something, you can pay more and have it.

My problem with this argument is this: when you're talking about a good or service, if there's a shortage, the price will go up and someone will show up to produce the required supply to meet demand. But we're not talking about goods or services, we're talking about people. Who 'produces' more people fast enough to meet the demands of the labor market? Natural production takes 20+ years to mature. How else can you introduce new supply into the labor force? Immigration - legal or illegal. What happens when you reduce the number of immigrants - legal or illegal - in the workforce? You decrease supply.

Only way to do it is to import services (people) on a larger scale, or learn how to clone Americans.

How long did it take to create clones in the Star Wars clones?

If they are anything like the Sea Monkeys I had as a kid, they'll take at least a week or so before they can even be seen with a naked eye. That's gotta be several years to make a full size human.

Edited August 22, 2007 by Mister Fancypants

[AnaAndDaniel 0]

Are illegal aliens even allowed to collect unemployment? I would think if you dont have papers to be employed then the same would be required to collect unemployment? The numbers reported are the people that are recieving unemployment right?

Economists like Rosenberg argue that in a market economy, there's really no such thing as a true shortage. If you want more of something, you can pay more and have it.

My problem with this argument is this: when you're talking about a good or service, if there's a shortage, the price will go up and someone will show up to produce the required supply to meet demand. But we're not talking about goods or services, we're talking about people. Who 'produces' more people fast enough to meet the demands of the labor market? Natural production takes 20+ years to mature. How else can you introduce new supply into the labor force? Immigration - legal or illegal. What happens when you reduce the number of immigrants - legal or illegal - in the workforce? You decrease supply.

Only way to do it is to import services (people) on a larger scale, or learn how to clone Americans.

How long did it take to create clones in the Star Wars clones?

If they are anything like the Sea Monkeys I had as a kid, they'll take at least a week or so before they can even be seen with a naked eye. That's gotta be several years to make a full size human.

like 18-22 yrs... depending on how well prepared you it/him/her.

Daniel

:energetic:

[peejay 327]

Good! The less workers the better.

I never understood why all the Left leaning loonies on this forum are so pro-illegal alien and have a let-'em-all-in mentality.

It's about as smart as pissing in an electrical receptical...it's not in your best interests.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Good! The less workers the better.

How do you figure how that works? For example, if the city of Houston has a shortage of teachers by about 200, how can that be better unless you support importing teachers from another state or country?

Edited August 23, 2007 by Mister Fancypants

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Good! The less workers the better.

Are you a union guy, peejay?

If all you care about is maximizing the cost of labor, then yes - the less workers the better.

But most of us care about more than that. We also care about the society in which we are a part having access to all the goods and services in the quantities it needs, when it needs them, at prices it can afford. Continuity is vital. The ability to grow is vital. Creating an artificial shortage of workers so workers can get paid more, even in the face of a cutback in the level of goods and services produced, is no way to go.