Groundhog Day Stuff

[TBoneTX 49,149]

I asked ChatGPT how accurate Punxsutawney Phil's Groundhog Day forecasts have been.  See reply, which I presume can be confirmed via NOAA and elsewhere.  (Note:  I wonder whether NOAA has anything better to do...)

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Top Groundhog Day Predictors (NOAA rankings)

Based on a NOAA analysis of Groundhog Day predictions (requiring at least 20 years of data):

 

• Staten Island Chuck (NY) – ~85% accuracy — most accurate among groundhog forecasters.

• General Beauregard Lee (GA) – ~80%

• Lander Lil (WY, prairie dog statue) – ~75%

• Concord Charlie (WV) – ~65%

• Gertie the Groundhog (IL) – ~65%
…others follow down to Punxsutawney Phil near the bottom.

• Punxsutawney Phil (PA) – ~35% accuracy.
Last: Mojave Max (NV tortoise) – ~25%.

 

This ranking compares whether the animal's "six more weeks of winter vs early spring" call matched observed March temperature outcomes.

 

 

Who is Staten Island Chuck?

 

• Staten Island Chuck (official name Charles G. Hogg) is the resident groundhog of the Staten Island Zoo in New York City.

• Like Phil, Chuck emerges each Feb 2 to "predict" whether spring will arrive early or winter will persist.

• Chuck has been making predictions since the 1980s and — per NOAA data — has the best record of any long-term groundhog forecaster.

 

Punxsutawney Phil is the nationally famous Groundhog Day figure because of historical prominence and media coverage.  Chuck is more of a regional tradition centered in New York.  His higher accuracy has only gained broader attention more recently as analysts (like NOAA) have compared the prediction records of many Groundhog Day animals.  That's why someone might only hear of Chuck in the past few years. 

 

 

Accuracy context

 

• Phil's overall accuracy (~35%) is well below random chance and below most long-term forecasters. 

• Other animals (even some non-groundhog predictors like a prairie dog statue) have outperformed Phil in NOAA's ranking.