Number of cases processed hit new high!

[myohmyohmy 15]

4 minutes ago, AndiB said:

I dont like this view/concern about asylum seekers taking too many resources. They're not going to cause a slow down, I see this posted every month or so due to whatever else, last time all the mexicans just walking in was gonna cause a slow down.

 

I also didn't think government shut down affected uscis? They're funding is almost entirely by users, not government 

So you don't think it takes extra resources to process an influx?  My friend used to work for the USCIS (area different that what we are going through) and he did indicate they move people around due to the mandate that asylum seekers have to be approved in a certain amount of time.

 

The potential shutdown maybe not, that's just another item I worry about but don't know much about.  I'm hoping neither!

[myohmyohmy 15]

1 minute ago, wav_m said:

Yeah, this site seems to suggest that USCIS being fee-based means it keeps ticking over as usual – at least it did during the last major shutdown. Hoping that's true! (I mean, I'm hoping there's no shutdown, but I think one can hope for the best while preparing for the absolutely unthinkably bad.)

Same here, I was just expressing my worry without researching so don't listen to the shutdown thing.  The asylum and end of Title 42 I know it takes resources if there's a huge influx again.  My friend that worked there was explaining why, Something like a 180 day mandate by law to make a decision, some cases go to court some don't, he said it depends how they come in.  Oh well nothing I can do about it.

[AndiB 661]

They may move people around but I don't think it'll yave a noticeable affect on k1. K1 is a drop in USCIS

I've had family or been immigrating myself or have friends who do for last 15yrs of my life... refugees have literally never had a noticeable affect.

 

Maybe this time is different but I think I just get upset when people start worrying about asyulum seekers in any capacity. Even if they have an affect, I think they deserve attention more than a fiance visa. It kills me not to be with my fiance, I hate my country too so no comfort here but at least I'm in 'comfort' while I wait. 

 

Either way....i have faith we'll be fine 

 

Edited April 28, 2023 by AndiB

[myohmyohmy 15]

I hope you're right and I hope there isn't this huge surge the media is predicting.

[wav_m 84]

6 minutes ago, myohmyohmy said:

I hope you're right and I hope there isn't this huge surge the media is predicting.

A thing I have to tell myself a lot (as a person who is also predisposed to worry) is that I'm already doing everything I can. I've prepared and researched as much as possible. Past a certain point, things are out of my hands. And that isn't ideal, but it's also something that kind of has to be tolerated. Until we get to the inquiry date, there's nothing my partner or I can do to make USCIS go faster or make them pay attention to our case. I am desperate to live with him and start our life, but if I let every single fear take up real estate in my brain, I would never get anything else done – and there are things I can be doing instead, like earning and saving money to help us out when I'm not able to work, that are actually productive and that help me to feel in control.

 

It is so hard to balance staying informed with staying sane! But it is also worth keeping in mind that (and I hope this isn't inflammatory) one of the media's favourite hobbies is panicking about illegal immigration, because it garners outrage and keeps their viewer numbers (and advertising profits) high. It's a reliable bugbear that doesn't necessarily take into account the finer points of how immigration works. I think that on the list of things to be worried about, the end of Title 42 is more likely to be low than high.

 

I hope this isn't presumptuous of me, and I don't want to suggest that your worries aren't legitimate – just that it's worth taking a step back from them and finding ways to manage them, especially given how long you'll be stuck with them otherwise. This is a long haul, and over a year of full-tilt anxiety is no good for anyone!

[meladee 160]

1 hour ago, myohmyohmy said:

I hope you're right and I hope there isn't this huge surge the media is predicting.

As someone who nerded out hard and read all of the bills around USCIS funding for the last few years, I don't think you need to be too worried about the impact at USCIS if there is a surge  -- they anticipated it and have addressed it with additional funding & resourcing. From the budget bill:

 

Quote

The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) asylum and refugee programs have long been funded by applicants and petitioners seeking unrelated immigration benefits, making fee rates needlessly higher than would otherwise be required for cost recovery. The bill provides funding to begin the transition of these humanitarian programs into USCIS's Operations and Support account. The bill also provides funding to increase asylum operations in anticipation of the additional workload USCIS will assume to adjudicate the asylum cases of individuals placed into expedited removal proceedings who claim a fear of return to their home country. Such adjudications had previously been handled only by the Department of Justice Immigration Courts, which continue to be challenged by significant case backlogs.

 

[meladee 160]

23 minutes ago, meladee said:

As someone who nerded out hard and read all of the bills around USCIS funding for the last few years, I don't think you need to be too worried about the impact at USCIS if there is a surge  -- they anticipated it and have addressed it with additional funding & resourcing. From the budget bill:

Actually redacting my own post, because I'm reading more and this actually didn't make it into the final appropriations act 😬

[Mr.So 56]

1 hour ago, meladee said:

Actually redacting my own post, because I'm reading more and this actually didn't make it into the final appropriations act 😬

Is that mean there might be a slowdown when Title 42 expires on May 12th? 

[Oregonian97 48]

2 hours ago, Mr.So said:

Is that mean there might be a slowdown when Title 42 expires on May 12th? 

I think it depends. K1 visas are such a small chunk. They probably have 10x the number of USCIS adjudicators for I130, for example. So it’s just a matter of how USCIS decides to allocate their manpower. It may or may not have an impact, we’ll see. My personal thought is little to no impact because USCIS is still hiring and staffing up.

[meladee 160]

11 hours ago, Mr.So said:

Is that mean there might be a slowdown when Title 42 expires on May 12th? 

They've still done a lot of hiring and process improvement to improve asylum processing, just not as much as they wanted. However, humanitrian cases seem to be managed separately than other immigration benefits anyway (specifically by asylum officers). Here's the last response I've seen them address the asylum backlog in: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/foia/Asylum_backlog-Representative_Barr.pdf

[When_Will_It_End 0]

They just announced yesterday that they are reassigning 480 employees to the 1,000-member asylum processing team. Now I have no data on how large the K1 team is or what team these relocations are coming from but considering that number of employees represents almost a 50% growth of the already standing asylum team, a team that presumably would be comparatively well-funded/staffed, that seems like a large move in my opinion. 

 

Also, on the NVC graph posted a couple days ago, there must be some skewing going on in there somewhere because the State Dept./NVC's website says they are currently processing cases received from the USCIS from 10 days ago. While that does not provide a "processed" date, it would suggest that their backlog is much smaller than that graph implies, otherwise we would see a greater lead time like we do at USCIS. Furthermore, there is evidence to suggest, such as "USCIS Analysis" on YouTube's case, that time from NOA2 to Welcome Letter was 8 weeks back in the first week in March, presumably that gap is closing, a thesis that is supported by the fact that the date which the State Dept. is processing is getting closer and closer to the same day. Another question is whether those 480 could have come from the State Dept., but that's just speculation.

 

@Obllak, I know you have already far and exceeded the call of duty, but if this NVC thing does become a concern, is there any chance you could start, when you have time, building a NVC version of your K1 sheet? I don't know if that's even possible and you seem much smarter on this stuff then me but just may be a valuable resource.

Edited April 30, 2023 by When_Will_It_End

[When_Will_It_End 0]

Also, reading through the posts there doesn't seem to be a consensus, but have we been able to determine to what degree the second half of a month filers are getting "punished" versus front half of the month? Is there an average difference in time to response for someone who is in the front 50% versus in the back 50% or the front 70% versus the back 30%? I guess another way of asking would be, if on average, should one expect an additional two-three weeks tacked on to their waiting time once USCIS moves onto another month or have people seen it be more like a week later for those being "ghosted?"

[AndiB 661]

7 hours ago, When_Will_It_End said:

They just announced yesterday that they are reassigning 480 employees to the 1,000-member asylum processing team. Now I have no data on how large the K1 team is or what team these relocations are coming from but considering that number of employees represents almost a 50% growth of the already standing asylum team, a team that presumably would be comparatively well-funded/staffed, that seems like a large move in my opinion. 

 

Also, on the NVC graph posted a couple days ago, there must be some skewing going on in there somewhere because the State Dept./NVC's website says they are currently processing cases received from the USCIS from 10 days ago. While that does not provide a "processed" date, it would suggest that their backlog is much smaller than that graph implies, otherwise we would see a greater lead time like we do at USCIS. Furthermore, there is evidence to suggest, such as "USCIS Analysis" on YouTube's case, that time from NOA2 to Welcome Letter was 8 weeks back in the first week in March, presumably that gap is closing, a thesis that is supported by the fact that the date which the State Dept. is processing is getting closer and closer to the same day. Another question is whether those 480 could have come from the State Dept., but that's just speculation.

 

@Obllak, I know you have already far and exceeded the call of duty, but if this NVC thing does become a concern, is there any chance you could start, when you have time, building a NVC version of your K1 sheet? I don't know if that's even possible and you seem much smarter on this stuff then me but just may be a valuable resource.

As has been discussed, NVC seems to be embassy based in general. It's best to follow how people from your embassy are doing. NOA2 is useful to follow because it's the same for every embassy. There's never been any reason for anyone up track all NVC cases, it's not particularly useful. Wait time shouldn't exceed 90 days

 

One of their internal graphs showed that in 2020 they had 10k USCIS workers so 500 isn't that much esp across all teams.

[meladee 160]

8 hours ago, When_Will_It_End said:

They just announced yesterday that they are reassigning 480 employees to the 1,000-member asylum processing team.

I can't find the announcement for this, can you share the link?

For what it's worth, this sounds like their standard procedure as addressed in the letter I linked above.

Quote

When credible fear and reasonable fear screenings increase due to an influx of individuals seeking asylum at the border, USCIS assigns more asylum officers to these urgent credible fear and reasonable fear caseloads, which decreases the number of asylum officers available to assign to affirmative asylum interviews and adjudications. This shift in resources extends the amount of time applicants must wait for their asylum interview and increases the affirmative asylum backlog.

So they're likely moving around workers who specifically are already asylum officers, and instead of adjudicating the asylum backlog they'll be working on cases at the border.

Edited April 30, 2023 by meladee

[AndiB 661]

4 minutes ago, meladee said:

I can't find the announcement for this, can you share the link?

For what it's worth, this sounds like their standard procedure as addressed in the letter I linked above.

So they're likely moving around workers who specifically are already asylum officers, and instead of adjudicating the asylum backlog they'll be working on cases at the border.

That makes sense. Someone did say newbies often start on k1 cause it's an easier application (guess cause non immigrant and should be straightforward) so I'd be surprised if they moved any to asylum which is a lot more complicated