my old EU prediction

[MalcomX 1]

we have the confirmation of that since thy selected 140k last year

OK Raevsky - I see the rationale. You are looking from a statistical exercise point of view - which is valid of course, even though the resulting numbers may look odd. Oddly, KCC don't seem to be following the program... perhaps they don't understand statistical analysis.

[Salec 0]

OK Raevsky - I see the rationale. You are looking from a statistical exercise point of view - which is valid of course, even though the resulting numbers may look odd. Oddly, KCC don't seem to be following the program... perhaps they don't understand statistical analysis.

Good point of view!

[franko 2]

OK Raevsky - I see the rationale. You are looking from a statistical exercise point of view - which is valid of course, even though the resulting numbers may look odd. Oddly, KCC don't seem to be following the program... perhaps they don't understand statistical analysis.

It's quite common for machines to use valid methods of analyzing available data and performing accurate, fast calculations however completely ignoring the human factor of the system (Skynet, The Architect in Matrix, Rae? ) . Based on that I will wait few more weeks and see the bulletin because as somebody said earlier - whatever you/we calculate it will be wrong anyway.

[vladek15425 7]

If raevsky talk about AF going to 105K, I definitly should prepare my docs

Rafic :

For When is the new data capture ?

[vladek15425 7]

It's quite common for machines to use valid methods of analyzing available data and performing accurate, fast calculations however completely ignoring the human factor of the system (Skynet, The Architect in Matrix, Rae? ) . Based on that I will wait few more weeks and see the bulletin because as somebody said earlier - whatever you/we calculate it will be wrong anyway.

I will prove him wrong about EU when we get the new data, I will post my final cut-off for all regions.

[R-evolution 0]

I will prove him wrong about EU when we get the new data, I will post my final cut-off for all regions.

Can't wait for this... Make sure you go above 44k for EU

Edited May 12, 2014 by R-evolution

[Britsimon 18]

I will prove him wrong about EU when we get the new data, I will post my final cut-off for all regions.

Hey Vladdy, I think only time and KCC can prove him wrong - all you can do is show you also have a well reasoned opinion.

[Gina_g 0]

This may not mean much since we can't fully rely on information that is not authorized by KCC but somebody in Romania called the U.S. embassy in Bucharest to inquire about high case numbers. Whoever answered the phone told him that all CNs, regardless of how high they are, would be interviewed by September 30. Most of my connationals reported CNs ranging between 40xxx and 59xxx (on the forums, at least).

I have a very high case number (EU50xxx), so all I have left is hope.

[MalcomX 1]

I assume that it will be for the beginning of the next month ....

Rafic :
For When is the new data capture ?

[raevsky 0]

OK Raevsky - I see the rationale. You are looking from a statistical exercise point of view - which is valid of course, even though the resulting numbers may look odd. Oddly, KCC don't seem to be following the program... perhaps they don't understand statistical analysis.

The advantages of statistical analysis are the laws of statistics still work even if KCC does not specifically follow them or even knows anything about them.

[SusieQQQ 11,585]

Re statistical analysis.... You know those word association games? Things like for example...

KCC

KFC

Black swan....

[Sloner 0]

The advantages of statistical analysis are the laws of statistics still work even if KCC does not specifically follow them or even knows anything about them.

it is speculation, not analysis.

[franko 2]

The advantages of statistical analysis are the laws of statistics still work even if KCC does not specifically follow them or even knows anything about them.

I believe the "German Tank Problem" method is valid for estimating the maximum CN numbers but the max cut-off calculations (and that applies to everybody's calcs) depend on KCC. In my opinion they are quite unpredictable and simple regional quota change will turn everything around.

[rafikbo76 2]

Rafic :

For When is the new data capture ?

Sorry for the delayed response,

the last data snapshot published by Dalius is here https://we.tl/fG7RW2nVm7

and it is up to Saturday 10 may,

I didn't work on it to make it in the usual format. may be tonight

[vladek15425 7]

Sorry for the delayed response,

the last data snapshot published by Dalius is here https://we.tl/fG7RW2nVm7

and it is up to Saturday 10 may,

I didn't work on it to make it in the usual format. may be tonight

Yeah I got dalius one aswell

But would nice if you work it out on the old format, thanks man