Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
mota bhai

Israel's 'Demographic Time Bomb' Is a Dud

5 posts in this topic

Recommended Posts

The argument can be summarized (if you don't want to read this) like this:

1. Don't count Arabs in the Gaza Strip.

2. Let Israeli citizens abroad the right to vote.

3. Ensure Jewish life expectancy remains higher than Arab life expectancy.

Israel’s ‘Demographic Time Bomb’ Is a Dud
Sorry, but the real number of Arab Israelis isn't an existential threat to the Jewish state.

BY Uri Sadot

DECEMBER 18, 2013


The argument, in a nutshell, goes like this: The birth rate among Arab families in Israel and Palestine is higher than it is for Jewish families. Therefore, at some point in the future the Arabs will become a majority in the area Israel occupies. When that day comes, Israelis will have to choose between having a Jewish state or a democratic one, because giving every person an equal vote would mean losing the Jewish character of the state. Israel's only hope of maintaining its identity, proponents of the "demographic time bomb" theory would argue, is to soon cut a peace deal that paves the way for an independent Palestinian state.

There's only one problem: The numbers just don't add up. Demography relies on more than just birth rates, and similar predictions have a long history of falling flat.

In mid-2013, Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics reported a population of 8,018,000 citizens. A fifth of those, numbering 1,658,000, are Israeli citizens who identify themselves as Arab. The estimates for the number of Palestinians living under Israeli control in the West Bank, without voting rights, range from 1.5 million to 2.5 million. Even if one uses the upper-end estimates issued by the Palestinian Authority, then, the combined number of Israeli-Arab citizens and Palestinians amounts to less than a third of Israel's current population. As for the residents of the Gaza Strip, it is hard to argue for their inclusion, since Israel has not exerted civilian control in the area since 2005.


Israel is unlikely to see an influx of Jews like that from the former Soviet Union ever again -- but it also hasn't exhausted its ability to affect the demographic balance. A 2012 report by the Knesset research center, for example, assessed that there are somewhere between 230,000 and 750,000 Israeli citizens abroad. Although many of those Israelis are already counted in Israel's total population, large portions of them aren't, and none of them are represented in the Knesset.

Israel currently does not grant any voting rights for these citizens living abroad ... If Israel simply matched its expatriate voting policies to those of the United States or Canada, it would add hundreds of thousands of additional voters to its electoral register.


Dramatic improvements in public health are also changing the demographic picture ... Between 2000 and 2010, for example, the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics recorded that the life expectancy for Israelis increased by approximately three years ... While Israeli Jews registered a 3.2-year increase over that period, expectancy for Israeli Arabs grew only by two years. This divergence was equivalent to a 2 percent increase to the Jewish population of Israel over that decade, equivalent to the arrival of 128,000 new immigrants. Demographic projections, it turns out, require far more than simple arithmetic.

There are countless reasons for Israelis and Palestinians to seek peace, but a false demographic panic should not be one of them. Israel still has many years and policy tools to prevent the disappearance of a Jewish majority in the areas under Israeli sovereignty. The vices involved with ruling another people are many, and the benefits peace would bring are innumerable -- but the motivation to resolve the conflict should not stem from the threat of ticking demographic time bombs.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

So essentially, Israelis should stay the course on the bitter attrition campaign because it's working out pretty swimmingly for them. Got it.

FYI: Wrong article link.

Addendum to FYI: Uri Sadot is a sh_t eating shmuck. Oof, how sexist of me.

"If you’re brave enough to say goodbye, life will reward you with a new hello."

- Paulo Coelho

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder why there's such a large gap in life expectancy? I guess you don't live as long when you're living under military occupation with no access to decent healthcare. It would seem that if Israel granted it's expats voting rights, then the Palestinians should be able to do the same.

You can click on the 'X' to the right to ignore this signature.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

If and when Palestine becomes a true functioning State then said State can determine who gets voting rights, who is a citizen, who is eligible for citizenship and who is to be denied, etc.

The OP makes pretty clear that it is not arguing the genius or desirability of the status quo, merely poking a huge hole in the demographic time bomb theory.

B and J K-1 story

  • April 2004 met online
  • July 16, 2006 Met in person on her birthday in United Arab Emirates
  • August 4, 2006 sent certified mail I-129F packet Neb SC
  • August 9, 2006 NOA1
  • August 21, 2006 received NOA1 in mail
  • October 4, 5, 7, 13 & 17 2006 Touches! 50 day address change... Yes Judith is beautiful, quit staring at her passport photo and approve us!!! Shaming works! LOL
  • October 13, 2006 NOA2! November 2, 2006 NOA2? Huh? NVC already processed and sent us on to Abu Dhabi Consulate!
  • February 12, 2007 Abu Dhabi Interview SUCCESS!!! February 14 Visa in hand!
  • March 6, 2007 she is here!
  • MARCH 14, 2007 WE ARE MARRIED!!!
  • May 5, 2007 Sent AOS/EAD packet
  • May 11, 2007 NOA1 AOS/EAD
  • June 7, 2007 Biometrics appointment
  • June 8, 2007 first post biometrics touch, June 11, next touch...
  • August 1, 2007 AOS Interview! APPROVED!! EAD APPROVED TOO...
  • August 6, 2007 EAD card and Welcome Letter received!
  • August 13, 2007 GREEN CARD received!!! 375 days since mailing the I-129F!

    Remove Conditions:

  • May 1, 2009 first day to file
  • May 9, 2009 mailed I-751 to USCIS CS

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
- Back to Top -

Important Disclaimer: Please read carefully the Visajourney.com Terms of Service. If you do not agree to the Terms of Service you should not access or view any page (including this page) on VisaJourney.com. Answers and comments provided on Visajourney.com Forums are general information, and are not intended to substitute for informed professional medical, psychiatric, psychological, tax, legal, investment, accounting, or other professional advice. Visajourney.com does not endorse, and expressly disclaims liability for any product, manufacturer, distributor, service or service provider mentioned or any opinion expressed in answers or comments. VisaJourney.com does not condone immigration fraud in any way, shape or manner. VisaJourney.com recommends that if any member or user knows directly of someone involved in fraudulent or illegal activity, that they report such activity directly to the Department of Homeland Security, Immigration and Customs Enforcement. You can contact ICE via email at Immigration.Reply@dhs.gov or you can telephone ICE at 1-866-347-2423. All reported threads/posts containing reference to immigration fraud or illegal activities will be removed from this board. If you feel that you have found inappropriate content, please let us know by contacting us here with a url link to that content. Thank you.