Timeline Data

[Zachris 5]

According to Igor's list the CSC no NOA2s have been received since March 21.

Plumbing problems aside, has the CSC really done nothing in a week, or are people just not updating their timelines?

And, the announcement about the plumbing states that the CSC will not be receiving any applications. It does not say that they stopped processing them. Or, am I being overly optimistic in how I read that announcement?

[bsd058 296]

Only a few people that filed with CSC are actually on VJ. So only THOSE people haven't been in the past week. I'm sure CSC has had some movement, but just none of the VJ members have received approval. Or perhaps some of them have received approval and haven't updated their timelines. But VJ members are only a sample of actual filers. There are thousands more than don't come to VJ. Be patient. Your time will come eventually. I had to wait 9.5 months before VSC approved me.

[Bayareaguy 156]

It is clear that CSC has been underprocessing cases since before december.

Yes, the VJ timeline data is only a % of the actual cases, but it averages out over time.

Just take a look at June 2012 at VSC approvals, which was VSC's slowest month in the past year. Now take a look at CSC approvals from Dec 2012 until now.

The comments I read that VSC was slow last year like CSC is now are almost insulting.

[lyricalan 18]

It is clear that CSC has been underprocessing cases since before december.

Yes, the VJ timeline data is only a % of the actual cases, but it averages out over time.

Just take a look at June 2012 at VSC approvals, which was VSC's slowest month in the past year. Now take a look at CSC approvals from Dec 2012 until now.

The comments I read that VSC was slow last year like CSC is now are almost insulting.

If you want to know what insulting is just take a look at my timeline......Good luck to you

[lost_at_sea 995]

It is clear that CSC has been underprocessing cases since before december.

Yes, the VJ timeline data is only a % of the actual cases, but it averages out over time.

Just take a look at June 2012 at VSC approvals, which was VSC's slowest month in the past year. Now take a look at CSC approvals from Dec 2012 until now.

The comments I read that VSC was slow last year like CSC is now are almost insulting.

+1 They're historically low, plus when you consider there haven't been any RFEs issued either, you can see that processing is almost none. I don't think it's comparable in the least to low processing numbers in the past to VSC.

[Bayareaguy 156]

If you want to know what insulting is just take a look at my timeline......Good luck to you

If CSC continues the way it has been going, there will be many with similar timelines as yours.

[bsd058 296]

Yes it averages over time, but that means that in any given week you might have good numbers or bad numbers. But a weekly approval rate on VJ probably doesn't reflect the actual weekly approval rate with USCIS. However, I find the monthly approval rate to be more appropriate to judge the centers on.

That's all I was saying...that you can't judge it based upon 1 week of data.

Edited March 27, 2013 by bsd058

[Bayareaguy 156]

Yes it averages over time, but that means that in any given week you might have good numbers or bad numbers. But a weekly approval rate on VJ probably doesn't reflect the actual weekly approval rate with USCIS. However, I find the monthly approval rate to be more appropriate to judge the centers on.

Take a look at CSC monthly rate since Dec, compared to june 2012 VSC (their "slowest" month).

I rest my case.

[bsd058 296]

Take a look at CSC monthly rate since Dec, compared to june 2012 VSC (their "slowest" month).

I rest my case.

Were we arguing or something?

All I said was that you can't base it upon 1 week of data.

I don't really understand your point. I don't think anyone is saying CSC is going fast.

Edited March 27, 2013 by bsd058

[Bayareaguy 156]

Were we arguing or something?

All I said was that you can't base it upon 1 week of data.

I don't really understand your point. I don't think anyone is saying CSC is going fast.

OK, but neither did I.

[bsd058 296]

OK, but neither did I.

What does "I rest my case" mean to you? Usually you say that when debating someone and you feel you've proven your point.

Edited March 27, 2013 by bsd058

[Zachris 5]

Woo-hoo three NOA2s from CSC on March 27. At this rate they should get to my September 2012 petition by September 2014.

It is very clear that VisaJourney does not include everyone who is petitioning for a visa. It is a sample, but it seems to be a relatively good representative sample. So, when Igor's List shows that less than 10% of the September VisaJourney CSC members have received NOA2, it is probably a pretty good suggestion that less than 10% of all September CSC petitioners have received NOA2. Thus, the glacial progress of 3 NOA2s per week from CSC via Igor's List can probably mean that there were 100 times that many that actually came out of the CSC. But, it still means that the progress is glacial.

My curiosity question is, what is the normal (maximumal?) processing rate that can produce NOA2s? If that rate was implemented today, when would I (sorry, just me in this hypothetical) receive my NOA2?

From how I read the historical data, when things are going well they produce about a month's worth of NOA2s each month. That means that they will get to my September petition sometime toward the end of May.

While that is way too long, unfortunately that is my current optimistic estimate.