CU-Boulder study predicts win for Mitt Romney in general election

[X Factor 1,110]

CU-Boulder study predicts win for Mitt Romney in general election

An analysis from the University of Colorado that has correctly predicted the outcome of presidential elections since 1980 is forecasting Mitt Romney as the frontrunner, with voters in Colorado helping the presumptive Republican nominee unseat President Barack Obama.

Political science professors Kenneth Bickers, of CU's Boulder campus, and Michael Berry, of CU's Denver campus, found that the ailing economy spells trouble for the president's re-election bid. The professors conduct a state-by-state analysis, incorporating economic data such as unemployment figures.

The results of their analysis show that Obama will win 218 votes in the electoral college, short of the 270 that he would need to be re-elected.

While their study focuses on the electoral college, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote compared to 47.1 for Obama when considering only the two major political parties.

The economy is a main driver in elections, said Bickers, who also runs the "CU in DC" internship program.

"If the economy were just average, we would be forecasting Obama to win," Bickers said. "But the economy is below average, and he is struggling."

Bickers said this election cycle has some parallels with 1980 -- a period when the economy was slumping and inflation was skyrocketing -- and voters chose Republican Ronald Reagan over Democratic incumbent President Jimmy Carter.

In Colorado, which turned blue for Obama in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 51.9 percent of the vote to Obama's 48.1 percent, again with only the two major parties considered.

"We're working very hard," said Daniel Gould, chairman of the Boulder County Democratic Party. "We never thought this would be a shoo-in, but this study just makes us work harder."

Gould said Obama inherited a bad economy, and since he was elected Republicans have not been cooperating in helping create jobs.

Joel Champion, former chairman of the Boulder County Republican Party who stepped down last week due to health reasons, said Obama has lost some support among the voter base that helped elect him in 2008.

He said he'd like to see a repeat of 1980, when Reagan gained support of Democrats.

"Obama hasn't been what he said he would be, and we need a change," Champion said. "I think it's not going to be as close as a lot of people believe."

Bickers said Obama risks losing almost all of the states now considered swing states, including Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.

The CU model has accurately predicted the winner for the last eight presidential elections. The study will be published this month in "PS: Political Science & Politics," a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. The CU study will be among about a dozen election prediction models.

The professors provide some caveats that could affect their forecast, including the time frame the economic data used in the study was collected and close tallies in some states. The data was taken five months in advance of the Nov. 6 election, and the professors plan to update it with more current economic data next month.

"As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict," Berry said in a news release.

http://www.dailycamera.com/news/ci_21372873/cu-boulder-study-predicts-win-mitt-romney-general

[SMOKE 1,426]

november 7 is going to be the best day in VJ P&R history.

[Penny Lane 8,159]

Does it matter? The next 4 years will be the same regardless of who happens to be in the White House. The problems we're facing today will be the same ones we're complaining about a year, two years, three years from now ...

[SMOKE 1,426]

Does it matter? The next 4 years will be the same regardless of who happens to be in the White House. The problems we're facing today will be the same ones we're complaining about a year, two years, three years from now ...

yes, it does matter. the next four years will likely be virtually the the same either way. but, nov.7 is going to be awesome, no matter who wins on nov.6.

[Penny Lane 8,159]

yes, it does matter. the next four years will likely be virtually the the same either way. but, nov.7 is going to be awesome, no matter who wins on nov.6.

Okay.

[^_^ 5,021]

Okay.

Clearly, SMOKE has something planned.

[SMOKE 1,426]

Clearly, SMOKE has something planned.

me?

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

We should just call off the election and declare Romney president. Face it, these guys have always been right for the last 30+ years and that means that Romney will win. Bad news for Ann Coulter who predicted otherwise but I'd say we go with the scientific method. Even if Republicans don't trust science all that much. They'll just have to suck it up and take one for the team on this one. The few billion dollars that were going to be spent on the campaign can be given back to the wealthy folk that provided it in the first place - as a healthy down payment on what's to come their way once Romney is sworn in.

How about it folks?

Edited August 23, 2012 by Mr. Big Dog

[Penny Lane 8,159]

I wouldn't take anything Ann Coulter says seriously.

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

Obama will lose because he only won by 5% and the people who only voted for him to prove they weren't racist now have to vote for Romney to prove they are not mentally retarded.

Edited August 23, 2012 by Gary and Alla

[X Factor 1,110]

Does it matter? The next 4 years will be the same regardless of who happens to be in the White House. The problems we're facing today will be the same ones we're complaining about a year, two years, three years from now ...

In my opionion it doesn't matter who is in office. Folks will be complaining either way.

[Penny Lane 8,159]

In my opionion it doesn't matter who is in office. Folks will be complaining either way.

That's pretty much what I said, yes.

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

In my opionion it doesn't matter who is in office. Folks will be complaining either way.

about half of them will be.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

about half of them will be.

true that

[X Factor 1,110]

Just a gut feeling that this election won't only be about the economy.