If War Broke Out Between China and ASEAN

[Hy Vong 9]

Vietnamese military before and Vietnamese military today.

[RobNKharen 70]

You neglect to account for China's explosive economic growth, but let's overlook that for now. You have stated many times how you are getting help from various countries for armaments, but my earlier statement can't be denied "VN alone does not stand even the slightest hope of fending off the Chinese at this point in time." The Chinese have you CRUSHED in manpower, CRUSHED in military armaments, CRUSHED in economic clout, and utterly CRUSHED in political power. VN however has one thing the Chinese don't......world sympathy, which under the right circumstance and political climate would CRUSH all their advantages.

My main concern in all this has nothing to do with the lovely VN people, but more to do with world sentiment. The US still has resentment from the past, and a bad taste in their mouth from trying to help countries in need lately. It would not be beyond the realm of possibility the US public would say: let the commies work it out for themselves, and pressure the gov from intervening.........which would be a HUGE HUGE mistake.

Just so you know..........if I had MY choice I'd be living on a beach in VN with my lovely Filipina wife and child 6 months out of the year.

[Hy Vong 9]

you must know that in today's world. You cannot win a war by fighting it yourself, especially if you're invading someone. Even the most powerfully country in the World that is the U.S. still cannot go to Iraq and fight alone.

Vietnamese people doesn't take sympathy from the world when the Chinese invade. Chinese have done it many times and have failed to take over Vietnam like they did to many other ethnics. If the Chinese invade Vietnam or take on a war, Vietnam will need help from the world but this doesn't mean the others that come to help Vietnam can take advantage of Vietnam. The U.S. would not let the Chinese take over all of the East Sea, if so the U.S. will lose the interest in that area, therefore, when Vietnam get help, Vietnamese know that the helpers also need to help Vietnam for their own interests just like the old saying, the enemy of your enemy is your friend. The Chinese is becoming more and more as an enemy to the U.S. then friend. Chinese is also enemy to the Indian, the Philippines, the Japanese....

Vietnam will need help, just like the powerful U.S. need help from other countries in fighting the wars in Iraq, Afgannistant.... but this does not mean the Chinese can take over Vietnam in weeks. It took the French almost 100 years but eventually surrendered to Vietnam, it took the U.S. over 10 years and $500 billions but also failed to win a war in Vietnam. It took the Chinese over 200 thousands troops in 1979 to invade Vietnam and tried to force Vietnam pull out of Cambodia in fighting the Khmer Rough but failed.

Never under estimate the Vietnamese determination to fight, especially to fight when the nation is at war from invaders.

[Tim/Mav 305]

You neglect to account for China's explosive economic growth, but let's overlook that for now. You have stated many times how you are getting help from various countries for armaments, but my earlier statement can't be denied "VN alone does not stand even the slightest hope of fending off the Chinese at this point in time." The Chinese have you CRUSHED in manpower, CRUSHED in military armaments, CRUSHED in economic clout, and utterly CRUSHED in political power. VN however has one thing the Chinese don't......world sympathy, which under the right circumstance and political climate would CRUSH all their advantages.

My main concern in all this has nothing to do with the lovely VN people, but more to do with world sentiment. The US still has resentment from the past, and a bad taste in their mouth from trying to help countries in need lately. It would not be beyond the realm of possibility the US public would say: let the commies work it out for themselves, and pressure the gov from intervening.........which would be a HUGE HUGE mistake.

Just so you know..........if I had MY choice I'd be living on a beach in VN with my lovely Filipina wife and child 6 months out of the year.

I support the sympathy is this. But, not as the US Stands now with the Economic situation we currantely deal with in the States. The War in the East has caused many tradegies and now returning injured US men and woman. If not physically, mentally. The Countless dollars spent are not to be refutted, but, learn from Political Goverments yours and mine. Did a Suit and Tie ever win your life or your friends/family? No, it was bloodshed. Humans just love WAR and thats all there is to it. If theres nothing to fight about.. We, or them will find a reason to fight. Thats History. The Goverments all use FREEDOM as a Excuse to kill. History Again..

[RobNKharen 70]

Again you are bringing up battles from the past, which have NOTHING to do with modern warfare. I've stated before I have no doubt in the commitment by VN people to defend their homeland. You mention the US can't defeat Iraq or Afghanistan alone, which is certainly not the case. The US could easily level those places and kill everyone in sight, but we choose to follow international law and human rights. It is how we "are". We fight for freedom, but thinking we can't do it unilaterally is not being realistic. We certainly can, but wisely choose not to. Can the same be said for China?

Consider this very viable scenario: China places an embargo on VN, stops selling electrical power to you, stops all incoming shipments(which include the arms you are getting), claims rights to open seas in the area and enforces it. They have not invaded VN at all, but now have a stranglehold on your country and economy. You don't have the navy to fight it, and the world will certainly complain, but that doesn't mean they will send troops! After a year or two of this, which devastates your economy, they have built up a sizable ground force on your northern border.....and they find an "excuse" to invade, such as to keep the peace since the starving viets are protesting. They petition the world court saying they don't want a fight and only want to restore peace. They have no intention of permanently occupying VN and will leave once peace is restored. The world hopes for the best and does nothing. NOW China has control of VN without firing a shot and the likelyhood of the US having to invade a well entrenched Chinese army makes the proposition extremely expensive in both money and lives. Do you think in this economy and political climate the US gov would take on such a challenge, just to free one communist country from the grasp of another communist country? Do you think the US public would back such an ordeal into a country we already tried to save before, but were fought by the very people we tried to free?

[B_J 2,752]

Again you are bringing up battles from the past, which have NOTHING to do with modern warfare. I've stated before I have no doubt in the commitment by VN people to defend their homeland. You mention the US can't defeat Iraq or Afghanistan alone, which is certainly not the case. The US could easily level those places and kill everyone in sight, but we choose to follow international law and human rights. It is how we "are". We fight for freedom, but thinking we can't do it unilaterally is not being realistic. We certainly can, but wisely choose not to. Can the same be said for China?

Consider this very viable scenario: China places an embargo on VN, stops selling electrical power to you, stops all incoming shipments(which include the arms you are getting), claims rights to open seas in the area and enforces it. They have not invaded VN at all, but now have a stranglehold on your country and economy. You don't have the navy to fight it, and the world will certainly complain, but that doesn't mean they will send troops! After a year or two of this, which devastates your economy, they have built up a sizable ground force on your northern border.....and they find an "excuse" to invade, such as to keep the peace since the starving viets are protesting. They petition the world court saying they don't want a fight and only want to restore peace. They have no intention of permanently occupying VN and will leave once peace is restored. The world hopes for the best and does nothing. NOW China has control of VN without firing a shot and the likelyhood of the US having to invade a well entrenched Chinese army makes the proposition extremely expensive in both money and lives. Do you think in this economy and political climate the US gov would take on such a challenge, just to free one communist country from the grasp of another communist country? Do you think the US public would back such an ordeal into a country we already tried to save before, but were fought by the very people we tried to free?

The only real problem I see with your theory is the part I bolded. With the US moving more of our Navy to this part of the world, I don't think China could do, or even try to do, what you suggest. And I don't think the rest of the scenario is possible without the part in bold.

[RobNKharen 70]

Hopefully you are right B_J. Currently the US naval forces could effectively deny this scenario if they wished.

Right now China is one of our largest creditors. If China came to the table saying they would stop artificially supporting the value of the yuan, as they do now, if the US declined to intervene.............it would be dam hard for our gov to pass up that opportunity........economically speaking.

Edited July 27, 2012 by RobNKharen

[B_J 2,752]

Hopefully you are right B_J. Currently the US naval forces could effectively deny this scenario if they wished.

And of course the key part is what you just said, "if they wished".

I think public sentiment is definitely against any type of ground war, but I think our Navy could prevent China from trying to control the South China Sea without too much risk.

[Hy Vong 9]

Again you are bringing up battles from the past, which have NOTHING to do with modern warfare. I've stated before I have no doubt in the commitment by VN people to defend their homeland. You mention the US can't defeat Iraq or Afghanistan alone, which is certainly not the case. The US could easily level those places and kill everyone in sight, but we choose to follow international law and human rights. It is how we "are". We fight for freedom, but thinking we can't do it unilaterally is not being realistic. We certainly can, but wisely choose not to. Can the same be said for China?

Consider this very viable scenario: China places an embargo on VN, stops selling electrical power to you, stops all incoming shipments(which include the arms you are getting), claims rights to open seas in the area and enforces it. They have not invaded VN at all, but now have a stranglehold on your country and economy. You don't have the navy to fight it, and the world will certainly complain, but that doesn't mean they will send troops! After a year or two of this, which devastates your economy, they have built up a sizable ground force on your northern border.....and they find an "excuse" to invade, such as to keep the peace since the starving viets are protesting. They petition the world court saying they don't want a fight and only want to restore peace. They have no intention of permanently occupying VN and will leave once peace is restored. The world hopes for the best and does nothing. NOW China has control of VN without firing a shot and the likelyhood of the US having to invade a well entrenched Chinese army makes the proposition extremely expensive in both money and lives. Do you think in this economy and political climate the US gov would take on such a challenge, just to free one communist country from the grasp of another communist country? Do you think the US public would back such an ordeal into a country we already tried to save before, but were fought by the very people we tried to free?

You sound as if this is a science fiction book or a video game. Vietnam has one of the largest population in the world, if China can do what you said above so does Vietnam can do the same back to China. How far is Quandong from Vietnam, which is where one of the most populated and most industrialize zones in China, and how for is Hong Kong, QuangXi, Quangzhou from Vietnam? All these places with a couple hundred millions Chinese live would be well within the reach of the Vietnamese missiles and artilleries.

China cannot place no trade embargo against Vietnam, Vietnam today is not the Vietnam before. Vietnam today can supply its own food, oil. If China stop trading with Vietnam then it is China will face the bigger loss.

Two ways trade between China and Vietnam in 2010 was $25 billion, will be $30 billion this year. China exports to Vietnam more than $20 billion and import only less than $10 billions. China is taking a surplus of more than $10 billion, representing 7% of the total trade surplus of the entire Chinese trades with the world.

Most of Chinese export products to Vietnam are cheap crappy stuffs, mostly fake while Chinese import mostly raw materials. Stop trading with Vietnam will make China be a bigger loser that's why China cannot do ####### to Vietnam, unlike where the Philippines was being hitted hard a few months ago from economic sanction from China when they stopped importing bananas and other fruits from Philippines.

Like i said before, China want to be a superpower, they won't dare to have a big war with Vietnam, they will win the war in short terms but would have to face a bigger loss both economically in the world stage and diplomatically. The cost of invading another country that is willing to fight back for years after years will eventually make you lose. The French, the American, and the Chinese themselves have done before to Vietnam but again and again, failed and retreated.

[RobNKharen 70]

You seriously don't "get it". If China decides to unilaterally invade VN, it will not be them strolling in and letting freedom fighters exist. They will have learned from the past and simply exterminate ANY resistance, and anyone that might possibly ever resist. They would secure ALL VN resources for their use. They already have population controls in China, so letting a viet live takes up room where a Chinese could live. It will not be some glorified VC struggle where HCM descends from the clouds to liberate his people against a wrongful aggressor. At this point in time, they can do this attrocity virtually unopposed by the meager VN forces. Stop believing your own propaganda and face the real facts. You are severely undergunned, totally outnumbered, vastly under budgeted, and need foreign help to survive. If your leader talked the same BS as you have said here to the Chinese.....it could get VERY ugly VERY fast. A poor country with 100 million people does not beat an affluent country with over to a billion people no matter how much you wish it is so.

BTW, there are many smart people here, but NONE have said VN has even a small chance in a confrontation with China. That should tell you something.

Anyway, thanks for the debate and good luck to you. I truly mean that

[bigdog 376]

Their is still no love loss between China and Japan. After visiting China, they have a lots to loose by going to war. Their whole way of life which is much like US in my opinion. There are no guarantees in life but the people of China are not anti US and like a prior postings just the governments are messing with each other. Lot of Asian people in US are from the surrounding countries and they can bring pressure to bear on our government to act if things turn bad. Lets hope and pray for the best.

[rade2rising 205]

more ppl will try to immigrate and avoid the war

[Hy Vong 9]

A poor country with 100 million people does not beat an affluent country with over to a billion people no matter how much you wish it is so.

Didn't the French, American, and the Chinese say the same thing like what you said on the above sentence when they came to Vietnam? Vietnam's today is 20 times better than Vietnam 50 years ago.

You are keep on telling me don't talk about the past, wars strategies are the same for thousands of years. Chinese weapons now are more advanced so are the Vietnamese weapons. Go do some research on such weapons called Bastion–P missiles, these type of missiles designed and use in Russia and Vietnam. Chinese badly wanted to buy from the Russian but got refused, however, Russian exported these to Vietnam for destruction of warships from the enemy's landing squadrons, convoys, carriers trike groups some 300km away.

I am hoping none of the Filipino leaders have the same thinking as your thinking. Overestimated the enemy at war and underestimated your own ability. If you were the leader of the Philippines, you would probably tell your people to put the guns down before the Chinese even come to your country because you think their are superior over you by such thing as their population, money and weapons. 800 millions Chinese people are still poor, living under the average world living standard. What makes you think China can take on any country in a matter of weeks? They can aggressively take on the Philippines in a few weeks because Philippines military is one of weakest in the world, no air force power, no battle ships, no missiles defense but even if the Chinese attack the Philippines, it will cost China more than what China can gain because now a days, no country has the ability to fight and occupy another sovereignty country for long. over 2 millions Chinese troops is more than 2 times the number of American troops, does that mean American military is inferior to that of the Chinese? America has more than $15 trillions in dept, Chinese has more than $2 trillion in cash, does that mean China is superior over America in anyway?

2 millions Chinese troops over a mass piece of land and body of water, they cannot take a big risk to deploy a large number of troops to the border of Vietnam or the coast of Vietnam while leaving the rest of their country at risk.

About Chinese military technology, 90% of it is copied from Russia. They still can't even make their own aircraft carrier while American made 11 air craft carriers for more than 50 years and American used air craft carriers during the war with Vietnam but still failed to take victory. In addition to the aircraft carriers, American also had many military bases stationed in Guam, Subic Bay of the Phillippines, in Thailand, New Zealands, Australia... during the war with Vietnam but still failed. What make you think the Chinese can do anything to Vietnam at seas or on land? It takes days if not weeks for them to deploy troops to the border of Vietnam and weeks to deploy warships to an area off the coasts of Vietnam for their guns and missiles to reach the firing range but when they do that, Vietnam has enough fire power to strike back. Why do you think Vietnam keep on getting advanced fighters such as Su-27 and Su-30s? What about battle ships and kilo class submarines? Sophisticated missiles S-300PMU and Bastion-P? You are speaking from the Filino's military capability that's why you think the Chinese can take on Vietnam in weeks, but if you were truly know the geographic advantage of Vietnam, its military build up and strategies than you wouldn't have said the above. China can win a battle, but they cannot win a war because declaring a war on Vietnam is declaring a war on the 100 million people of Vietnam. Over 4000 history of Vietnam, the Vietnamese have advanced in the experiences of fighting the invaders and it doesn't matter where on the timeline. Again and again, the Chinese military now is no where near that of the American military 50 years ago. Chinese still can't even make their air craft carrier while the American made those and used those more than 50 years ago. B52's fleet is still the best high attitude and sophisticated bombers in the world and the American still use those but they were shot down by a couple of dozens in Vietnam. Anyway, nice debating with you and thanks for the good luck

Edited July 27, 2012 by Hy Vong

[Dan Nguyen 3]

I dated and married a VN girl only to be duped, but still love VN and the wonderful people there. Her and her family said they don't live in the past, but unfortunately you keep bringing up battles from the 60's and 70's which have absolutely zero to do with today's modern warfare, economics, and political landscape. Trust me, the world is own your side, but without world support, Ha Noi and the rest of VN would fall to the Chinese in a matter of days, not weeks or months.

I realize that at this point we are debating a bunch of what if's, but the simple fact remains.......VN alone does not stand even the slightest hope of fending off the Chinese at this point in time.

Yeah, right. You always know a bully when you see one. It's the guy who flexes his muscle and make a lot of noise and hope the other guy would back down.

We bring up battles from the past to make a point. Military power alone cannot win a war if you don't learn from the mistakes of the past and it looks like the chinese are about to make another mistake.

You keep throwing this word alone out there. That Vietnam cannot stand against China without world support. What support are you talking about? Sympathy? Technology? Weapons? In the end, the Vietnamese would still have to do the fighting alone.

One thing's for sure. This is not Vietnam's first dance with China. You can bet the chinese are thinking long and hard before they engage Vietnam in a fight.

[Dan Nguyen 3]

You seriously don't "get it". If China decides to unilaterally invade VN, it will not be them strolling in and letting freedom fighters exist. They will have learned from the past and simply exterminate ANY resistance, and anyone that might possibly ever resist. They would secure ALL VN resources for their use. They already have population controls in China, so letting a viet live takes up room where a Chinese could live. It will not be some glorified VC struggle where HCM descends from the clouds to liberate his people against a wrongful aggressor. At this point in time, they can do this attrocity virtually unopposed by the meager VN forces. Stop believing your own propaganda and face the real facts. You are severely undergunned, totally outnumbered, vastly under budgeted, and need foreign help to survive. If your leader talked the same BS as you have said here to the Chinese.....it could get VERY ugly VERY fast. A poor country with 100 million people does not beat an affluent country with over to a billion people no matter how much you wish it is so.

BTW, there are many smart people here, but NONE have said VN has even a small chance in a confrontation with China. That should tell you something.

Anyway, thanks for the debate and good luck to you. I truly mean that

Yeah, speaking of propaganda....let's not confuse your opinion with facts.....