September 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions

[miraya 8]

Here's the "PD watch list" of people who's next on the interview list.

Feel free to add yourself to this list IN ORDER

if your PD is somewhere between AUG08 to JAN09. Thanks

Barikhan-----30JUL08

jessy89-----23AUG08

H&A---------27OCT08

elkhris-----30DEC08

[nitolex06 0]

My prediction is dec 09 like most of you are saying sept is the last month. Of the fiscal yr. I am hoping that my pd becomes current in october.

[bloveb 2]

ya sep.vb will be jan.2009...i think there are no much more 09 applicants,so 09 will be done in few months..i think there will be quite long stop in 2010...just guess..no more reason..

[benefit 0]

Here's the data of I130 preference categories receipts from dashboard.uscis.gov (unfortunately, it does not provide the data in each category; let's assume that the percentage of F2A filers remains roughly the same):

15094 Aug08

16733 Sep08

15948 Oct08

13327 Nov08

16899 Dec08

12196 Jan09

13627 Feb09

19087 Mar09

18411 Apr09

15925 May09

16791 Jun09

15763 Jul09

15125 Aug09

15650 Sep09

16259 Oct09

14796 Nov09

16263 Dec09

13575 Jan10

13977 Feb10

21568 Mar10

22262 Apr10

18770 May10

19858 Jun10

15933 Jul10

21806 Aug10

22171 Sep10

23800 Oct10

30949 Nov10

27043 Dec10

20321 Jan11

16413 Feb11

26832 Mar11

22801 Apr11

Demand started to increase from March 2010, but it was not doubled or tripled. I think the VB will advance fast in 2009, and get a bit slower in 2010, but should not be significantly slower.

Unfortunately, I do not have data prior to Aug 2008; otherwise we could have a more accurate prediction.

[mr.blu 10]

ya sep.vb will be jan.2009...i think there are no much more 09 applicants,so 09 will be done in few months..i think there will be quite long stop in 2010...just guess..no more reason..

i agree , due to huge application filed last 2010,,hopefully 2009 will be touch , my wife PD was July 2009..good luck to all of us!!!

[jessy89 0]

can't believe that this long wait is going to end!!!

let wait a few weeks and see what happens!!

Edited July 13, 2011 by jessy89

[kumbahara 3]

I wish there was some push towards asking for DoS to release month by month visa demand for FB as they do for EB. Only that can bring some clarity on so called increased demand. Perhaps more stakeholders and AILA should write to CIS Ombudsman to get the data out atleast quarterly.Frankly I was disappointed that the year started with retrogression to Jan 08 and 8 months later its still at July 08. Even USCIS dashboard doesnt show any rise in 130 petitions or its approvals. While the FY 2011 draws to close in Sept, the quotas need to be filled. If there isnt a significant movement next month to atleast Jan 2009 and in Oct, this year would be a big dud.

[benefit 0]

I wish there was some push towards asking for DoS to release month by month visa demand for FB as they do for EB. Only that can bring some clarity on so called increased demand. Perhaps more stakeholders and AILA should write to CIS Ombudsman to get the data out atleast quarterly.Frankly I was disappointed that the year started with retrogression to Jan 08 and 8 months later its still at July 08. Even USCIS dashboard doesnt show any rise in 130 petitions or its approvals. While the FY 2011 draws to close in Sept, the quotas need to be filled. If there isnt a significant movement next month to atleast Jan 2009 and in Oct, this year would be a big dud.

I think the major reason for this retrogression is that USCIS approved a lot of I-130s in the end of year 2010, who filed in 2008/2009/2010 and thus significantly increased the visa demand. I do not think there will be a big quota waste this year, since DOS can see the demand clearly after they rolled back the cutoff dates and USCIS cleared up all the I130 in 2008-2010. That's probably why we see interviews can be scheduled even before the VB is released.

Btw, I think it's really stupid to let multiple departments (USCIS, DOS) to handle an integrated immigration process. The huge quota waste last year is due to their poor coordinates.

[kumbahara 3]

I think the major reason for this retrogression is that USCIS approved a lot of I-130s in the end of year 2010, who filed in 2008/2009/2010 and thus significantly increased the visa demand. I do not think there will be a big quota waste this year, since DOS can see the demand clearly after they rolled back the cutoff dates and USCIS cleared up all the I130 in 2008-2010. That's probably why we see interviews can be scheduled even before the VB is released.

Btw, I think it's really stupid to let multiple departments (USCIS, DOS) to handle an integrated immigration process. The huge quota waste last year is due to their poor coordinates.

Yes, the USCIS did report having close to 850K applications I130 processed in the response to CIS Ombudsman report. But again, I130 forms the basis for not only F2A, but other FB categories as well, and even IR1. The details of the split are hardly released. Also the only way DoS could fathom the demand is after NVC would process it and qualify them to respective categories and identify based on the numerical limits as well. And then add to that consulate's process in handling those applications sent from NVC. All in all, the exact demand of F2A may have very well been less, but the time duration of the processes involved and multiple orgs dealing with makes it even worse. Hence my thought of if at all it is a true demand for F2A based on the I130 approvals and I485 filings based on the drawdown of the PD, then next couple of months would be clear indicator. Else shouldnt we see a more significant movement, given the quotas need to be addressed? Even so, with the new quota of visas beginning Oct, the movement should be sustained?

[maroon1 0]

Here's the data of I130 preference categories receipts from dashboard.uscis.gov (unfortunately, it does not provide the data in each category; let's assume that the percentage of F2A filers remains roughly the same):

15094 Aug08

16733 Sep08

15948 Oct08

13327 Nov08

16899 Dec08

12196 Jan09

13627 Feb09

19087 Mar09

18411 Apr09

15925 May09

16791 Jun09

15763 Jul09

15125 Aug09

15650 Sep09

16259 Oct09

14796 Nov09

16263 Dec09

13575 Jan10

13977 Feb10

21568 Mar10

22262 Apr10

18770 May10

19858 Jun10

15933 Jul10

21806 Aug10

22171 Sep10

23800 Oct10

30949 Nov10

27043 Dec10

20321 Jan11

16413 Feb11

26832 Mar11

22801 Apr11

Demand started to increase from March 2010, but it was not doubled or tripled. I think the VB will advance fast in 2009, and get a bit slower in 2010, but should not be significantly slower.

Unfortunately, I do not have data prior to Aug 2008; otherwise we could have a more accurate prediction.

As you said, given the fact that there is no way to separate the categories, it is very hard to come up with a prediction. I think this link can give you better idea how many F2A files exist in NVC; http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

The link shows the waiting list for F2A, of over 360,000 files, just 11% belong to FY 2010 so saying that there are a lot of applicants in FY 2010, does not look very accurate and most of the applicants (89%) are those who have PD 2007-2009. I think if it gets to 2010 it will be moving faster!

what do you guys think?

Edited July 13, 2011 by maroon1

[interesting 2]

H&A---------27OCT08

NOV 22, 2008

My priority date is July 30, 2008 and i think i will recieve Interview letter on the last week of July...

My priority date is July 30, 2008 and i think i will recieve Interview letter on the last week of July...

Edited July 13, 2011 by interesting

[interesting 2]

i think it probably could be DEC08 or JAN09.

Let's hope the best

[jhp 10]

As you said, given the fact that there is no way to separate the categories, it is very hard to come up with a prediction. I think this link can give you better idea how many F2A files exist in NVC; http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

The link shows the waiting list for F2A, of over 360,000 files, just 11% belong to FY 2010 so saying that there are a lot of applicants in FY 2010, does not look very accurate and most of the applicants (89%) are those who have PD 2007-2009. I think if it gets to 2010 it will be moving faster!

what do you guys think?

i think that is not correct bcaz as the number u told 11% is for the persons whose files have been approved and waiting for visas but a huge filing in the last half of 2010 ...which got approved in 2011..so lets hope for the best!!!! and best of luck to all.....

[maroon1 0]

i think that is not correct bcaz as the number u told 11% is for the persons whose files have been approved and waiting for visas but a huge filing in the last half of 2010 ...which got approved in 2011..so lets hope for the best!!!! and best of luck to all.....

You are right, it does not show whole year of 2010 but I think it covers at least first 6 months of 2010. Remember from almost beginning of 2010 , approval of form I130 has been taking less than 4 month. In may case it just took 2.5 months!

[sgam 0]

Count me in, my PD is SEptember 28, 2008