Unemployment Lowest Since May 2009 as Fewer Look for Jobs

[^_^ 5,021]

The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in 19 months in December. It fell to 9.4% last month from 9.8% in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's the biggest one-month drop we've seen since the recession began. But despite that seemingly impressive decline, just 103,000 new jobs were created.

...

The decline in the unemployment rate can be mostly understood by the labor participation rate having declined, which means fewer people are looking for jobs. The number of unemployed fell by 556,000 in December according to the Household Survey, but that's partially because 434,000 people left the workforce. However, it also says that employment increased by 297,000 jobs. So while the news isn't all bad, most of the decline in the unemployment rate can be attributed to Americans exiting the workforce -- not getting new jobs.

...

December ultimately provided another mediocre unemployment report. While it's clear that jobs are growing, they're still doing so at a relatively slow rate. But with a new year begun, perhaps firms will approach hiring a little more aggressively going forward. Consumer sentiment and demand do appear to have improved, if holiday shopping is any indication. Without stronger hiring, we'll see the unemployment rate rise again, as Americans re-enter the labor force in coming months.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/01/unemployment-lowest-since-may-2009-as-fewer-look-for-jobs/69046/

[웃 910]

They are not impressed...

http://www.google.com/finance

[Amby 490]

However, it also says that employment increased by 297,000 jobs.

#######? on Fox they just said it was increased by 115,000 jobs Fox is starting to annoy me.

Edited January 7, 2011 by Amby

[^_^ 5,021]

#######? on Fox they just said it was increased by 115,000 jobs Fox is starting to annoy me.

You mean 103k?

297k is from the Household survey, 103k is from the Establishment survey. I am still unclear on the difference.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

[Amby 490]

You mean 103k?

297k is from the Household survey, 103k is from the Establishment survey. I am still unclear on the difference.

http://www.bls.gov/n.../empsit.nr0.htm

they said 115,000 instead of the 150,000 that was predicted. the only reason I even noticed the difference is because it was on tv as I was reading this.

[^_^ 5,021]

It's confusing.

[웃 910]

You mean 103k?

297k is from the Household survey, 103k is from the Establishment survey. I am still unclear on the difference.

http://www.bls.gov/n.../empsit.nr0.htm

103 is non farm payrolls

113 is non farm private payrolls

Not sure about the 297 number, maybe it was just Fox projections so that when the number came in lower they could blame Obama?

This is the site I always used and a lot of the guys I knew used back in my trading days...Site is updated within minutes of the data being released at 8:30am

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

Highlights

• As it turned out, the December employment report did not bring the good news the market was expecting. That doesn't mean, though, it brought bad news either.
• Nonfarm payrolls rose 103,000 in December (Briefing.com consensus 150,000) and were revised higher for both November (from 39,000 to 71,000) and October (from 172,000 to 210,000). After accounting for a 10,000 decline in government jobs, nonfarm private payrolls jumped 113,000 in December. The November level for private payrolls was also revised higher (from 50,000 to 79,000).
• Average hourly earnings increased 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%) and the average workweek held steady at 34.3 hours, as expected.
• The most striking headline was the drop in the unemployment rate from 9.8% to 9.4%. There is going to be a nice political spin on that drop, but the reality is that it was a function primarily of a lower participation rate, which fell from 64.5% in November to 64.3% in December.

Key Factors

• The frustrations of unemployed workers are cemented in the fact that 44.3% of unemployed workers have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer. That is up from 42.2% in November.
• The December report fell short of the heightened expectations that followed the ADP report on Wednesday. The upward revisions to nonfarm payrolls in October and November, though, have created an offset of sorts that has tempered some of the headline disappointment in the December number.

Big Picture

• Overall, the message in the December data follows a familiar form, which is to say the labor market is recovering in a more deliberate fashion which, in turn, is helping to keep wage inflation in check. The stock market of course has fared just fine in recent months digesting that reality. That should continue to be the case, because the prevailing message is clear: labor trends are improving, but not at a fast enough pace for the Fed to take its foot off the quantitative easing pedal.

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/employ.htm#ixzz1AOIXCqgF

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Not sure about the 297 number, maybe it was just Fox projections so that when the number came in lower they could blame Obama?

297K is from Table B on http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm.

297K is the difference in December 2010 and November 2010 values (Dec-Nov) for the "civilian noninstitutional population - employed". This is a seasonally adjusted figure. It is from the Household data survey.

[Obama 2012 1,714]

the key is how many people are NOT looking for work...

Unemployment is probably closer to 20%...

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

Proposed solutions

All unemployed people should leave the country and go anywhere but here. Stop extending unemployment benefits. They will run out faster and more people drop off the unemployment rolls and VOILA! Low unemployment! Stop counting people that take part time jobs and still collect partial unemployment...they're working! Count them as working!

OR

Implement the FAIR TAX and remove all tax burdens from businesses so they would have more money to HIRE PEOPLE. Businesses from around the world would come to the US to make stuff, and hire Americans to make it.

[luckytxn 2,264]

How do they know when someone has stopped looking for work? Do the ones looking for work yell real loud that they are going to stop looking and a person on the street corner notes this? Is it that they send a note saying to stop sending them places looking for work as they are not trying anymore?

I do like that the employemt rate went down though. I expected it as many get hired to work the holiday rush. Hopefully they will stay working and not get laid off.

[SuperDuper! 230]

Proposed solutions

All unemployed people should leave the country and go anywhere but here. Stop extending unemployment benefits. They will run out faster and more people drop off the unemployment rolls and VOILA! Low unemployment! Stop counting people that take part time jobs and still collect partial unemployment...they're working! Count them as working!

OR

Implement the FAIR TAX and remove all tax burdens from businesses so they would have more money to HIRE PEOPLE. Businesses from around the world would come to the US to make stuff, and hire Americans to make it.

OR

Stop enabling the Unemployed with endless unemployment benefits (99 weeks?!) Heck, If I knew that I would keep getting extended benefits, I would just stay home and post on VJ all day and become a celebrated 45K poster! Then, watch ESPN and drink beer all day.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

...remove all tax burdens from businesses so they would have more money to HIRE PEOPLE. Businesses from around the world would come to the US to make stuff, and hire Americans to make it.

Yep, this worked extremely well for Ireland. Or did it?