Worst economic crisis since the Great Depression? By a long shot.

[웃 910]

by Josh Bivens

Voters' anxiety over the state of the economy will surely be a key theme in President Obama's State of the Union address. This anxiety is warranted. The chart below compares the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) since the beginning of the current recession in 2008 to previous recessions. GDP is the broadest measure of economic performance, tracking the market value of all goods and services produced in the United States. The most recent recession is notable not just for the severity of economic contraction but also the length of decline. As the figure shows, in the nine previous recessions on record, by seven quarters after the official start of the recession the economy had actually grown by an average of 4% compared to its pre-recession peak.

However, seven quarters after the current recession began, the economy remains 3.2% smaller than its pre-recession peak. This is true even though the third quarter of 2009 saw the first positive growth in GDP in a year. Despite the GDP uptick in the most recent quarter, the current recession remains the worst performer on record this long after a business cycle peak. The economy failed to recover its pre-recession peak after seven quarters only once before, following the 1973 recession.

For more comparisons of the economy's performance in terms of GDP, jobs, or other measures, visit EPI's Economy Track, which will be updated to incorporate new GDP data released on January 29.

http://www.epi.org/economic_snapshots/entr...pshot_20100127/

Edited February 21, 2010 by Lord Infamous

[one...two...tree 2,762]

I'm encouraged to see you read the articles from the EPI and I'm wondering if this one happened to catch your eye as well?

The Recovery Act worked

By Ross Eisenbrey

It is appalling to hear conservative critics of President Obama claim that his policies -- in particular the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act -- have failed because unemployment remains so high and the 8 million jobs lost in the recession have not been replaced. The conservative policies put in place during 8 years of the Bush administration wrecked the economy, helped drive it into the deepest recession in 70 years and caused that unemployment. The figure tracks monthly job losses before and after the Recovery Act.

The recession began in December 2007, during George Bush’s 7^th year in office. By the time President Obama was inaugurated, 4.4 million jobs had been lost, and by the time the Recovery Act was passed, 5.9 million jobs had been lost. As the figure makes clear, the job losses that were accelerating before the Recovery Act was passed have been virtually eliminated.

We must not forget the enormity of the damage done to the economy before the Recovery Act. From December 2007 to March 2009, one out of every twenty private sector jobs was eliminated, a rate of destruction 50% greater than even the severe recession in the early 1980s. With unemployment at 9.7% today, it’s hard to appreciate how much more damage the stimulus investments prevented. Without the more than two million jobs generated by the Recovery Act, the unemployment rate would now exceed 11% rather than the 9.7% rate in January.

link

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

I'm encouraged to see you read the articles from the EPI and I'm wondering if this one happened to catch your eye as well?

The Recovery Act worked

By Ross Eisenbrey

It is appalling to hear conservative critics of President Obama claim that his policies -- in particular the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act -- have failed because unemployment remains so high and the 8 million jobs lost in the recession have not been replaced. The conservative policies put in place during 8 years of the Bush administration wrecked the economy, helped drive it into the deepest recession in 70 years and caused that unemployment. The figure tracks monthly job losses before and after the Recovery Act.

The recession began in December 2007, during George Bush’s 7^th year in office. By the time President Obama was inaugurated, 4.4 million jobs had been lost, and by the time the Recovery Act was passed, 5.9 million jobs had been lost. As the figure makes clear, the job losses that were accelerating before the Recovery Act was passed have been virtually eliminated.

We must not forget the enormity of the damage done to the economy before the Recovery Act. From December 2007 to March 2009, one out of every twenty private sector jobs was eliminated, a rate of destruction 50% greater than even the severe recession in the early 1980s. With unemployment at 9.7% today, it’s hard to appreciate how much more damage the stimulus investments prevented. Without the more than two million jobs generated by the Recovery Act, the unemployment rate would now exceed 11% rather than the 9.7% rate in January.

link

You need to integrate that chart, to get a real understanding of where we are at. We won't be approaching a recovery, until all those negative bars, are being offset by positive bars. At this point in time, we are sitting at the bottom of the trough, not back at a neutral point, as this derivative graph would suggest.

[mawilson 2,133]

Note how - despite the misleading coloring - the bottom was reached in January 2009

before the so-called "recovery act" was even passed by Congress.

[웃 910]

Note how - despite the misleading coloring - the bottom was reached in January 2009

before the so-called "recovery act" was even passed by Congress.

It is interesting how they make the bad part red and the good part blue. I wonder if that was done on purpose or subconsciously? Gee, that recovery act really had an immediate impact. Within weeks the economy turned around and we were saved from a second great depression.

Edited February 21, 2010 by Lord Infamous

[mawilson 2,133]

It is interesting how they make the bad part red and the good part blue.

Both parts (before and after) should be shown in red because they represent negative numbers - job losses.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

Persons who currently want a job:

January 2009: 5,866,000

January 2010: 5,965,000

This number has remained virtually unchanged for the last twelve months.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Note how - despite the misleading coloring - the bottom was reached in January 2009

before the so-called "recovery act" was even passed by Congress.

The color change indicates when the Recovery Act was enacted. The graph clearly shows the slowing of job loss.

From December 2007 to March 2009, one out of every twenty private sector jobs was eliminated, a rate of destruction 50% greater than even the severe recession in the early 1980s. With unemployment at 9.7% today, it's hard to appreciate how much more damage the stimulus investments prevented. Without the more than two million jobs generated by the Recovery Act, the unemployment rate would now exceed 11% rather than the 9.7% rate in January.

Edited February 21, 2010 by Galt's gallstones

[Pooky 3,876]

And the graph doesn't show those removed from the "unemployed" category because they've given up looking.

Or, to quote Leonard H. Courtney, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

This number has remained virtually unchanged for the last twelve months.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

Persons who currently want a job:

January 2009: 5,686,000

January 2010: 5,965,000

Sorry. The corrected numbers.

So, we didn't save or add about 300,000 jobs.

Edited February 21, 2010 by Lone Ranger

[mawilson 2,133]

The color change indicates when the Recovery Act was enacted. The graph clearly shows the slowing of job loss.

The Recovery Act was enacted in February 2009. The bottom was reached in January 2009 and

job losses started slowing before any money was spent.

[scandal 951]

And the graph doesn't show those removed from the "unemployed" category because they've given up looking.

Or, to quote Leonard H. Courtney, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

I've always heard it attributed to Mark Twain. Apparently there is some question about the matter.

According to Wikipedia, the likeliest is Charles Wentworth Dilke.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

The Recovery Act was enacted in February 2009. The bottom was reached in January 2009 and

job losses started slowing before any money was spent.

And yet, jobs continued to be lost. Gee whiz, doctor! The bleeding stopped, but the patient died!

[Pooky 3,876]

I've always heard it attributed to Mark Twain. Apparently there is some question about the matter.

According to Wikipedia, the likeliest is Charles Wentworth Dilke.

Always do a second reference after Wikipedia.

Mark Twain Quotes

Who Said That?

I went with the first person I found who put the whole thing together.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

A year ago this past week, President Obama signed into law the $787-billion economic stimulus passed by the Democratic-run Congress, and the president and other top administration officials are saying the stimulus saved the country from a second Depression. Voters aren’t so sure. Thirty-five percent (35%) agree that the stimulus plan has helped the economy, but nearly as many (33%) believe it has hurt the economy. Twenty-six percent (26%) say it has had no impact at all.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_con...eek_s_key_polls