TECH TOP 10 IN 2010

[scandal 951]

I've heard the "this is the year of mobile apps" every year for the last 15. Puhleez!

Oh, and the "this is the year of MSFT downfall" is also pretty well worn. Java was gonna beat it, Netscape was gonna beat it, Linux was gonna beat it, Web 2.0 was gonna beat it... yet here we are and MSFT is still riding strong.

These tea leaf end-of-year projections are always fun, however.

RESEARCHEDGE

TECH TOP 10 IN 2010

TUESDAY DECEMBER 15, 2009

Our Technology team, led by Rebecca Runkle, issued its Top 10 Predictions

for 2010 this morning. As we look at the TREND and TAIL themes that unfold

in 2010, the team will be digging into each of these themes, in detail over

the next few weeks. Rebecca will be covering these predictions this morning

at 10:30AM EST on Fox Business. Tune in!

I wanted to share the Top 10 note in summary. Please let me know if you'd

like to follow up with the team.

************************************************************************

MORNING HIGHLIGHT - TECH TOP TEN FOR 2010

As the year comes to a close, we're issuing our Top Ten Predictions for

2010. In the new year, the bulk of innovation will be aimed at the consumer

market and the way in which we interact with computers. How and when we

experience them will change dramatically over the course of next year.

So without further ado, here's our Top Ten for 2010:

Cloud Not So Schmoud

One of my former employers used to call it "Cloud Schmoud," either out of a

lack of understanding or a mismatch in duration. Whatever the case, the

Cloud is real and is becoming more relevant with each passing day. The

transition to Cloud will unfold at an accelerating clip next year. Data and

applications will move off the desktop and into more centralized compute

nodes, enabling accessibility and collaboration. Cloud is the next killer

app - those without it will be killed.

2010 is the year that Office Web Apps and Google's Chrome OS launch. Both

platforms will accelerate the shift to web-centric compute. Apple just

acquired Lala Media, which points to Apple moving iTunes (and the App Store)

into the cloud. Smartphone penetration will accelerate the shift as

consumers demand mobile access to content. As more devices proliferate and

as Internet access becomes ubiquitous, demand for cloud-based access will

become the norm.

Real-time Rules

Twitter led the way and soon real-time will be an expected feature

throughout the Web. Real-time resonates with people, and it has a multitude

of uses - as folks like Google, Facebook, and Foursquare are proving. It's

about productivity, community, interaction and engagement. Google jumped on

the real-time search bandwagon in early December. Smartphone adoption will

accelerate real-time's relevance big time, in 2010. Soon, your search

results will populate and repopulate as you input your query.

Local is as Local Does

Apple showed us the utility behind having navigation capabilities with us at

all times with the launch of the iPhone. Now services such as Foursquare,

Gowalla, and Google Latitude are catching on and a multitude of products

will increasingly leverage sophisticated location-based services in a

variety of new ways. E-commerce and Advertising are not far behind.

Location-based services will be a part of social media (Twitter), a part of

mobility (Android) and a part of an increasing number of diverse

interactions on the Web.

Standalone Products are Toast

Standalone GPS devices will finally die (with the exception of specialized,

niche markets) and so will stand-alone mass market cameras/video cameras.

The Kindle and other e-readers will not be that far behind as screens

improve and functional multi-purpose devices come to market (aka the Apple

media pad). The iPhone has e-reader capabilities via the App Store already.

A larger-screened device will show the world that stand-alone products - be

they Garmin GPS devices, Flip Video Cameras or Kindles - are feature sets,

not sustainable franchises.

Privacy Continues to Slip Away

Privacy will continue to erode at a dizzying rate. Consumers will voice

concerns, but ultimately the value of the new products will outweigh the

loss of privacy. (See last night's post

"Creepy"<http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102887385483&s=1516&e=00192ETN8YToH_9kS2V

uTDluR9QFnR4_BlMWPRK8Q1ALSUAy9hsh0yoDoIflGnHl2t7p6_mv9GcP_o6Sx9k-vZZfm9Gohw5

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l1-7U1-qlZRDPAevRzQKgtwn> for more.)

Mobility Madness

People are not bullish enough on mobility. Penetration will accelerate in

2010 and the number of mobile Internet devices sold will be significantly

greater than the pundits at Gartner and elsewhere suggest. This, in turn,

will drive location-based services, cloud compute, real-time products and

services, advertising, and e-commerce. Mobile payment systems will also

become the defacto norm.

Context Dethrones Content

I've talked about it a lot in 2009 and this will only become more obvious in

2010. The Web and its consumers are constantly overrun by information

(content) overload. Algorithms only solve for so much and become more

difficult to solve for as content becomes real-time. BUT, the convergence

of algorithms, location-based services, and social media enables real-time,

relevant, personalized filtering. Context is King.

You opt in to networks and allow your friends/colleagues/trusted sources to

provide the context that is most relevant to you. Planning a trip abroad?

Don't just search the Web, reach out to your Facebook network and leverage

social media sites for insight and advice from like-minded people around the

world.

On-Demand Everything

2010 will mark the inflection point for television, movie, and music content

to be accessible anywhere, at anytime. My toddler thinks all "Dora" shows

should be accessible at all times on any screen (TV, Computer, iPod, iPhone,

Droid, etc.). It'll happen in 2010, and Apple's Lala acquisition will prove

to be the catalyst that leads the way.

Digitized Physical World Emerges

Mobility and search by image combine to yield a digitized physical world.

Links to the virtual world appear in the real world. Think of the bar codes

appearing in restaurant windows as a first step - scan them with your phone,

and they link to a review on Google or Yelp. When you have robust search by

image, each object becomes its own bar code. Eventually, personalization

will fold in on top of this.

Microsoft's Decade of Dominance gives way to Apple and Google

Of the other nine predictions on this list, not one of them favors MSFT over

its competitors. Redmond has fallen far behind as it relates to mobility

and the consumer space. The cloud makes operating systems less relevant and

leaves Microsoft's core business exposed on a number of fronts. The brand

is increasingly tarnished in the consumer's eye and no longer holds the sway

it once did over developers. The mobile offerings so far have been woefully

inadequate, leaving the company out in the cold as mobility takes off.

As the Windows 7 product cycle matures, Microsoft investors will re-focus on

these issues and capitalization will erode.

Today, Microsoft's market capitalization is $265Bn, its enterprise value is

$237Bn. This compares to Apple at $172Bn and $152Bn and Google at $187Bn

and $165Bn. During 2010, Apple and Google will further narrow the gap in

value and both will begin to eclipse Microsoft's enterprise value by year

end.

And the rest ...

A few trends that just barely missed the top ten, but we believe are

nevertheless critical to watch:

- Enterprise demand will improve- this is the only trend we see that is

out-sized bullish for MSFT.

- China will become an increasingly important technology buyer - no longer

just a producer of parts and consumer of cheap electronics, premium products

are finding a market among Chinese end-users.

- Tech M&A will continue, led by software and services deals as suppliers

position themselves for cloud and contextual compute paradigms. Expect a

big acquisition out of IBM by next year-end.

- User interfaces with computing devices undergo the first major shift in

decades. In mobile, expect more use of gestures, tilt, and accelerometers.

Gesture-based gaming is around the corner. On the desktop, Apple's magic

mouse and HP's touchscreen computer point to a new paradigm for computing.

Touchscreens and gestures will dominate. My toddler is always poking at my

laptop, expecting it to respond like the iPhone does. It's a more natural

and comfortable way to interact with a computer. Sure, there are some

hurdles to clear (my toddler doesn't have to type much, for instance) but

expect to see great strides away from the qwerty-keyboard-and-pointer model.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Interesting about Google OS. I had no idea. The only way I see people willing to ditch Windows for it is if it is offered for free.

On-Demand Everything

2010 will mark the inflection point for television, movie, and music content

to be accessible anywhere, at anytime. My toddler thinks all "Dora" shows

should be accessible at all times on any screen (TV, Computer, iPod, iPhone,

Droid, etc.). It'll happen in 2010, and Apple's Lala acquisition will prove

to be the catalyst that leads the way.

I'd like to know how people imagine this to be played out? Ideally, we could have portability with on-demand, either with a portable device that could hook up to your DVR as well as other devices that would keep track of all your recordings, or have that data accessible online through any device (computer, iPod, etc.)

Edited December 16, 2009 by Galt's gallstones

[rsn 135]

I agree that MSFT isn't going anywhere anytime soon, and their OS will continue to dominate on desktop computers. However, Google is going to continue to kill them in every other area. It's only a matter of time until Google docs has all of the same features as Microsoft Office (they sure are taking their sweet time though). Microsoft has made an attempt to bring Office online, presumably to compete with Google, but it sucked when I tried it out a few months ago. Google is starting work on an OS called Google Chrome OS, but I'm sure it will take a LONG time before it can even begin to compete with Windows. They still haven't even perfected the Chrome browser. Windows 7 looks promising - a few people in my dev team have been playing with it.

Edited December 16, 2009 by rsn

[Niels Bohr 72]

I heard rumors from TechNET that Windows 7 will be open source.

[rsn 135]

I heard rumors from TechNET that Windows 7 will be open source.

In other news, monkeys are flying out of my ####.

I heard rumors from TechNET that Windows 7 will be open source.

In other news, monkeys are flying out of my ####.

It auto-censored me? Lame.

[Niels Bohr 72]

I heard rumors from TechNET that Windows 7 will be open source.

In other news, monkeys are flying out of my ####.

I heard rumors from TechNET that Windows 7 will be open source.

In other news, monkeys are flying out of my ####.

It auto-censored me? Lame.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

I heard rumors from TechNET that Windows 7 will be open source.

In other news, monkeys are flying out of my ####.

I heard rumors from TechNET that Windows 7 will be open source.

In other news, monkeys are flying out of my ####.

It auto-censored me? Lame.

LOL...there are ways around it, but I'm not a tech geek enough to know how.

[Ban Hammer 14,638]

I heard rumors from TechNET that Windows 7 will be open source.

In other news, monkeys are flying out of my ####.

I heard rumors from TechNET that Windows 7 will be open source.

In other news, monkeys are flying out of my ####.

It auto-censored me? Lame.

LOL...there are ways around it, but I'm not a tech geek enough to know how.

noob!

[scandal 951]

I heard rumors from TechNET that Windows 7 will be open source.

In other news, monkeys are flying out of my ####.

I heard rumors from TechNET that Windows 7 will be open source.

In other news, monkeys are flying out of my ####.

It auto-censored me? Lame.

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=215080

Just sayin'.

[mawilson 2,133]

Oh, and the "this is the year of MSFT downfall" is also pretty well worn. Java was gonna beat it, Netscape was gonna beat it, Linux was gonna beat it, Web 2.0 was gonna beat it... yet here we are and MSFT is still riding strong.

scandal's a Microsoftie?

Yuck. I couldn't care less about MSFT - I'll stick with SunOS, thanks very much.

# mv scandal /dev/null

Edited December 17, 2009 by mawilson

[Niels Bohr 72]

gcc -Wall -o null msft.c

[scandal 951]

Oh, and the "this is the year of MSFT downfall" is also pretty well worn. Java was gonna beat it, Netscape was gonna beat it, Linux was gonna beat it, Web 2.0 was gonna beat it... yet here we are and MSFT is still riding strong.

scandal's a Microsoftie?

Yuck. I couldn't care less about MSFT - I'll stick with SunOS, thanks very much.

# mv scandal /dev/null

I'm hardly a microsoftie. . I do however recognize that their market presence isn't going away no matter how much the open source, Unix, Web, Java crowd wants it to. Thazzall.

I think you moved me to /dev/null ages ago, remember? I live happily in your great bit bucket in the sky, surrounded by my Allah-provided big boobed virgins.

Oh, and SunOS based on BSD kernel died in the mid 1990s. If you're still running that, you really are in a time warp.

Solaris (based on System V) has been the only game in town ever since. We'll see what happens now with Oracle's purchase of Sun.

I think the future of Solaris is likely to be based upon OpenSolaris, their open source effort (still based upon System V as well).

[one...two...tree 2,762]

I'm hardly a microsoftie. . I do however recognize that their market presence isn't going away no matter how much the open source, Unix, Web, Java crowd wants it to. Thazzall.

For another OS to significantly compete with MS, it has to be as easy to install and run as a web browser. I think Google just might be able to pull it off, especially if their OS has exclusive web browsing features for the YouTube, Facebook, Twitter crowds.

Edited December 17, 2009 by Galt's gallstones

[scandal 951]

I'm hardly a microsoftie. . I do however recognize that their market presence isn't going away no matter how much the open source, Unix, Web, Java crowd wants it to. Thazzall.

For another OS to significantly compete with MS, it has to be as easy to install and run as a web browser. I think Google just might be able to pull it off, especially if their OS has exclusive web browsing features for the YouTube, Facebook, Twitter crowds.

You're thinking of the home computer market. In the server and workstation arena those considerations are not what count.

Windows has a share in those segments, but Linux and surviving Unixes (Solaris, AIX, HPUX primarily) are very strong in scientific, datacenter, mass-computational environments. What Windows offers that no one else realistically does is a common platform for servers, midrange systems, desktops, workstations and hand helds. Well - Linux does too, but it simply doesn't have the desktop penetration of Windows. Having a homogeneous environment is not required, of course - most large organizations are hetero wrt operating systems. But there is an advantage there, which does help MSFT (e.g. propagating enterprise wide Active Directory and file services, etc.)

[mawilson 2,133]

Oh, and SunOS based on BSD kernel died in the mid 1990s. If you're still running that, you really are in a time warp.

Not since 1995 or so

Solaris (based on System V) has been the only game in town ever since. We'll see what happens now with Oracle's purchase of Sun.

I think the future of Solaris is likely to be based upon OpenSolaris, their open source effort (still based upon System V as well).

Solaris 10 is SunOS 5.10.

$ uname -s -r

SunOS 5.10