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A booming economy?

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The Department of Commerce has revised its figures for second-quarter GDP growth rate to 3.3 percent, up from the previously reported 1.9 percent, and a significant rise from the first quarter's 0.9 percent growth rate. 3.3 percent GDP growth rates are not normally associated with recessions.

One early reaction:

"Ha ha ha. And if you believe that data, I also have a bridge for sale in Brooklyn." -- The Big Picture.

The Economist's Free Exchange sheds a little more light:

It's a big flashy number, but it probably doesn't mean all that much. The first second-quarter GDP revision is in, and the 1.9 percent growth rate has been pushed up to an incomprehensible 3.3 percent. Quarterly growth was due almost entirely to exports, without which the economy would have been roughly flat. Bad news, since the dollar is rising and the rest of the world is tightening the purse strings.

As noted here when the Commerce Department released its first guess at the quarterly GDP numbers, "Trade, in other words, is the current American lifeline."

Bloomberg:

The smallest trade deficit in eight years was the biggest contributor to growth last quarter. The trade gap narrowed to a $376.6 billion annual pace and added 3.1 percentage points to growth, the most since 1980.

But free-trade fans shouldn't expect the new numbers to change any hearts and minds in, say, Ohio. The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits reached a five-year high of 3.4 million. According to Calculated Risk, "By this measure, the economy is clearly in recession."

― Andrew Leonard

http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/2008/08/28/...;aim=/tech/htww

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I think they switch the numbers as they please, just to ward off the word "recession". Anyone looking from the outside in, sees the mess this country is in... everyone but those running it. :wacko:


A woman is like a tea bag: she does not know how strong she is until she is in hot water.

- Nancy Reagan

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I think they switch the numbers as they please, just to ward off the word "recession". Anyone looking from the outside in, sees the mess this country is in... everyone but those running it. :wacko:

It's a regional thing. Some areas are doing quite well while others are not. The numbers represent an average over the whole economy.

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Some areas are doing quite well

Really? Which ones?

Mine for one. (central Illinois)

You must be taking about a real small "region". Cause Northern IL keeps laying off workers left & right


A woman is like a tea bag: she does not know how strong she is until she is in hot water.

- Nancy Reagan

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Some areas are doing quite well

Really? Which ones?

Mine for one. (central Illinois)

You must be taking about a real small "region". Cause Northern IL keeps laying off workers left & right

Like I said, it's regional. It is also industry specific. While I don't disagree that our economy could be better it isn't the train wreck that some make it out to be.

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Ok, so you are ok and as it happens, so am I and I wouldn't call the US economy a 'train wreck' either. However, you have to be kidding if you think that the current economy is healthy or even optimistic. The current economy is struggling with some huge problems without any real answer forthcoming as yet. Now, just because, you and indeed I are not starving or about to be put out on the streets, that doesn't mean that a lot of people are not in that position because, clearly they are. Is one to ignore those people, just because, you, and I are alright?


Refusing to use the spellchick!

I have put you on ignore. No really, I have, but you are still ruining my enjoyment of this site. .

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I'm sure there is a lot of selective redefining of what 'regional' is supposed to mean. Bloomington-Normal is also Central Illinois and its not doing that hot. Nor is Kankakee. Nor Mattoon...


Wishing you ten-fold that which you wish upon all others.

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It also depends on your job. Right now I'm doing well because the company I work for is pretty solid and will be for years to come. But I can't live inside a bubble and say that the entire state, county or even city has not been hit by the "recession" only because my friends, family and neighbors are doing fine.

Diana


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I'm sure there is a lot of selective redefining of what 'regional' is supposed to mean. Bloomington-Normal is also Central Illinois and its not doing that hot. Nor is Kankakee. Nor Mattoon...

Regional means just that, some areas of the country are doing better than others. Other than stating that my area (Peoria) is doing well I didn't specify what other areas are also doing well. I leave it up to you to make the definitions if you choose. But I doubt if the numbers that are stated in the OP have been messaged to offer any particular slant, it is what it is.

We also need to keep in mind that this is an election year. It's in the best interest for the Reps to make things look as good as they can and it's in the Dems best interest to make things look as bad as they can. The truth lies somewhere in between. Try and seperate the politics from the numbers.

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While I am personally doing well in today's economy I'm sure glad I'm not retiring any time soon, based on my 401k's performance this past year

While my 401K took a hit also I see it as a plus. The shares I am buying now are relatively cheap. When the market goes back up I will benefit because I was able to buy more for my money. That said, I am also glad I am not retiring soon. If I were I would probably have to wait a year or so for the market to go back up. But in reality anyone that was wanting to retire this year should have moved their money into a safe harbor a year or two before the expected retirement date. If they would have done that they wouldn't have had any reduction in their retirement funds. I know that 1 to 2 years before I retire I will do that just to hedge against any sudden downturn in the market. It's called managing your money.

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I'm sure there is a lot of selective redefining of what 'regional' is supposed to mean. Bloomington-Normal is also Central Illinois and its not doing that hot. Nor is Kankakee. Nor Mattoon...

Regional means just that, some areas of the country are doing better than others. Other than stating that my area (Peoria) is doing well I didn't specify what other areas are also doing well. I leave it up to you to make the definitions if you choose. But I doubt if the numbers that are stated in the OP have been messaged to offer any particular slant, it is what it is.

We also need to keep in mind that this is an election year. It's in the best interest for the Reps to make things look as good as they can and it's in the Dems best interest to make things look as bad as they can. The truth lies somewhere in between. Try and seperate the politics from the numbers.

I didn't mention any party in particular. :whistle:

Money flow is not something that happens as ill-defined as say, atmospheric gases throughout the troposphere. Its pretty well defined- you have so much in the bank, make so much, spend so much, and so on.

While I am personally doing well in today's economy I'm sure glad I'm not retiring any time soon, based on my 401k's performance this past year

While my 401K took a hit also I see it as a plus. The shares I am buying now are relatively cheap. When the market goes back up I will benefit because I was able to buy more for my money. That said, I am also glad I am not retiring soon. If I were I would probably have to wait a year or so for the market to go back up. But in reality anyone that was wanting to retire this year should have moved their money into a safe harbor a year or two before the expected retirement date. If they would have done that they wouldn't have had any reduction in their retirement funds. I know that 1 to 2 years before I retire I will do that just to hedge against any sudden downturn in the market. It's called managing your money.

Good points.


Wishing you ten-fold that which you wish upon all others.

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