McCain predicts Iraq war over by 2013

[Jack and Barbara 0]

COLUMBUS, Ohio (CNN) -- Sen. John McCain envisions that by 2013, the Iraq war will be won, but the threat from the Taliban in Afghanistan won't be eliminated, even though Osama bin Laden will have been captured or killed.

Sen. John McCain envisions his first-term achievements during a speech in Columbus, Ohio, Thursday.

The presumptive Republican presidential nominee made both statements in a speech in which he envisions the state of affairs at the end of his first term if he is elected president.

"What I want to do today is take a little time to describe what I would hope to have achieved at the end of my first term as president. I cannot guarantee I will have achieved these things," McCain said in Columbus, Ohio.

McCain's speech was unusual -- and somewhat risky -- in that it laid out benchmarks on which he could be judged.

"It certainly was an ambitious speech," said Bill Schneider, a CNN senior political analyst, noting that many of the things McCain mentioned will be "very tough things for a president to accomplish."

"But perhaps the key point that he made was the tone and tenor of his presidency when he said near the end of his speech, 'If I'm elected president, the era of the permanent campaign will end. The era of problem solving will begin,' " Schneider said.

"What's interesting about that is that precisely echoes what Barack Obama is talking about in his campaign," Schneider said, referring to the Democratic presidential candidate.

The Arizona senator said he believes that the United States will have a smaller military presence in Iraq that will not play a direct combat role, and he predicts that al Qaeda in Iraq will be defeated. Watch McCain say most troops will be home from Iraq by 2013 »

"By January 2013, America has welcomed home most of the servicemen and -women who have sacrificed terribly so that America might be secure in her freedom.

"The Iraq war has been won. Iraq is a functioning democracy, although still suffering from the lingering effects of decades of tyranny and centuries of sectarian tension," McCain said.

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The violence in Iraq will persist, the candidate believes, but it will be "spasmodic and much reduced." But civil war will be prevented, armed militias will be disbanded, security forces will become "professional and competent," and the government will be able to impose "its authority in every province of Iraq" and properly defend its borders.

Speaking with reporters after his address, McCain insisted that "we are winning and we will win" in Iraq but said he's not assigning a date for success.

"It could be next month; it could be next year. It could three years from now. It could be, but I'm confident that we will have victory in Iraq, but I'm certainly not putting a date on it. "

McCain said victory means "our troops come home with honor and we do maintain a security relationship ... if viewed necessary by both governments."

He said withdrawing troops would basically be setting "a date for surrender."

Responding to the speech, Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton said in a statement that McCain had offered "the same Bush policies that have weakened our military, our national security, and our standing in the world. Our country cannot afford more empty promises on Iraq."

McCain said he also believes that the "threat from a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan will be greatly reduced but not eliminated" and that U.S. and NATO forces will remain in the country "to help finish the job, and continue operations against the remnants of al Qaeda."

If he is elected, he said, he would hope that Pakistan will work with the United States in deploying counter-insurgency tactics in the al Qaeda-laden tribal regions.

McCain envisions that Osama bin Laden and his chief lieutenants, would be captured or killed.

"There is no longer any place in the world al Qaeda can consider a safe haven," McCain said.

He also believes that in 2013, there still will not have been a "major terrorist attack in the United States since September 11, 2001."

Other milestones McCain hopes to see at the end of what would be his first term are:

Witnessing Russia and China cooperating in "pressuring Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions, and North Korea to discontinue its own."

Significantly increasing the size of the Army and Marine Corps, which will be "better equipped and trained to defend us."

The application of "stiff diplomatic and economic pressure" by the United States -- acting in concert with a newly formed League of Democracies -- to cause Sudan to agree to a multinational peacekeeping force, with NATO countries providing logistical and air support, to stop the genocide in Darfur.

Several years of robust economic growth.

Taxpayers filing under a flat tax.

The world food crisis ending, low inflation and a "much-improved" quality of life "not only in our country but in some of the most impoverished countries around the world."

More accessible health care for Americans and an easing of pressure on Medicare because of lower health care costs.

A United States well on its way to "independence from foreign sources of oil."

A Social Security system that is solvent, does not reduce benefits for those nearing retirement and includes individual retirement accounts

The confirmation of "scores of judges" to the federal district and appellate courts, including the U.S. Supreme Court.

A secure southern border for the United States after "tremendous improvements to border security infrastructure and increases in the border patrol, and vigorous prosecution of companies that employ illegal aliens."

McCain also made veiled criticism of President Bush when he said, "I will exercise my veto if I believe legislation passed by Congress is not in the nation's best interests, but I will not subvert the purpose of legislation I have signed by making statements that indicate I will enforce only the parts of it I like."

Bush has made a practice of issuing signing statements that outline portions of legislation he will not enforce or abide by because he felt that they infringed on his executive powers.

McCain pledged to work with members of either party to make the country safer and more prosperous.

"And I won't care who gets the credit," he said.

[Dr. A ♥ O 203]

So he's predicting a transitional democracy will be stabilized within ten years of its origination. I feel he is stating the lowest number as a safe margin to win support of popular opinion. I believe he is getting his figures from looking at South Africa's model of a recent transitional democracy. My concern is that the severity, intensity, and frequency of the war in Iraq is much higher than the transition of what happened in South Africa. With Iraq it might be more like 15-20 years and at best 25 years to really defeat the radicals, secure the population, rebuild, and stabilize the democracy.

[Heracles 417]

I thought we cannot simply cut and run anyway since we took control of the nation. Some sort of Geneva contention thing. Therefore it is up to us to rebuild the nation and ensure stability.

[Dr. A ♥ O 203]

There has been a lot of talk about how the Geneva convention applies to the situation.

Here is what I could find :

link

link

The Geneva Convention Chapter III. Civilian objects Article 54:

Art. 54. Protection of objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population

1) Starvation of civilians as a method of warfare is prohibited.

It is prohibited to attack, destroy, remove or render useless objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population, such as food-stuffs, agricultural areas for the production of foodstuffs, crops, livestock, drinking water installations and supplies and irrigation works, for the specific purpose of denying them for their sustenance value to the civilian population or to the adverse Party, whatever the motive, whether in order to starve out civilians, to cause them to move away, or for any other motive.

2) The prohibitions in paragraph 2 shall not apply to such of the objects covered by it as are used by an adverse Party: (a) as sustenance solely for the members of its armed forces; or (B) if not as sustenance, then in direct support of military action, provided, however, that in no event shall actions against these objects be taken which may be expected to leave the civilian population with such inadequate food or water as to cause its starvation or force its movement.

3) These objects shall not be made the object of reprisals.

4) In recognition of the vital requirements of any Party to the conflict in the defence of its national territory against invasion, derogation from the prohibitions contained in paragraph 2 may be made by a Party to the conflict within such territory under its own control where required by imperative military necessity.

Source: http://www.genevaconventions.org/

I thought we cannot simply cut and run anyway since we took control of the nation. Some sort of Geneva contention thing. Therefore it is up to us to rebuild the nation and ensure stability.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Maybe I missed it but how exactly does McCain substantiate his prediction? Did he just consult some crystal ball?

[Dr. A ♥ O 203]

Maybe I missed it but how exactly does McCain substantiate his prediction? Did he just consult some crystal ball?

"Iraq is a functioning democracy, although still suffering from the lingering effects of decades of tyranny and centuries of sectarian tension," McCain said.

It appears he is paying attention to the Democratic Peace argument by Political Scientists rather than viewing into some crystal ball. He's setting a realistic time line.

If you're really interested in being a scholar of war here is some not so light theoretical reading that McCain is most likely pulling from.

Constructing Political Logic: The Democratic Peace Puzzle

The Flawed Logic of Democratic Peace Theory

The Democratic Peace

Capability, Types of War, Peace

I linked them but I think you have to have access through my University. I know if you search them online by title you can access some or all of them in other open academic databases.

Edited May 17, 2008 by Olivia*

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Maybe I missed it but how exactly does McCain substantiate his prediction? Did he just consult some crystal ball?

"Iraq is a functioning democracy, although still suffering from the lingering effects of decades of tyranny and centuries of sectarian tension," McCain said.

It appears he is paying attention to the Democratic Peace argument by Political Scientists rather than viewing into some crystal ball. He's setting a realistic time line.

Where does McCain reference any of this?

[Dr. A ♥ O 203]

Maybe I missed it but how exactly does McCain substantiate his prediction? Did he just consult some crystal ball?

"Iraq is a functioning democracy, although still suffering from the lingering effects of decades of tyranny and centuries of sectarian tension," McCain said.

It appears he is paying attention to the Democratic Peace argument by Political Scientists rather than viewing into some crystal ball. He's setting a realistic time line.

Where does McCain reference any of this?

I can't do the work for you Mr. Big Dog. You're going to have to read the articles to discover it for yourself.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Maybe I missed it but how exactly does McCain substantiate his prediction? Did he just consult some crystal ball?

"Iraq is a functioning democracy, although still suffering from the lingering effects of decades of tyranny and centuries of sectarian tension," McCain said.

It appears he is paying attention to the Democratic Peace argument by Political Scientists rather than viewing into some crystal ball. He's setting a realistic time line.

Where does McCain reference any of this?

I can't do the work for you Mr. Big Dog. You're going to have to read the articles to discover it for yourself.

Unless it's written somewhere that this is the basis for McCain's prediction, then reading isn't going to do the trick. Are you somehow involved in the foreign policy part of McCain's campaign? If not, then how do you know how he arrived at the prediction he made unless he details it.

[Dr. A ♥ O 203]

Maybe I missed it but how exactly does McCain substantiate his prediction? Did he just consult some crystal ball?

"Iraq is a functioning democracy, although still suffering from the lingering effects of decades of tyranny and centuries of sectarian tension," McCain said.

It appears he is paying attention to the Democratic Peace argument by Political Scientists rather than viewing into some crystal ball. He's setting a realistic time line.

Where does McCain reference any of this?

I can't do the work for you Mr. Big Dog. You're going to have to read the articles to discover it for yourself.

Unless it's written somewhere that this is the basis for McCain's prediction, then reading isn't going to do the trick. Are you somehow involved in the foreign policy part of McCain's campaign? If not, then how do you know how he arrived at the prediction he made unless he details it.

I have a minor in foreign and international affairs. I'm not on anybodies campaign but knowing what I know now out of all the candidates McCain's updated foreign policy is the most realistic. My educated guess how he arrived at his "timeline", remember the word "prediction" is the journalists word, because I know the Democratic Peace literature and that politicians are paying attention to it now. If you get a chance to read any of it and have some understanding of it it would be interesting to know your view point from there.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Maybe I missed it but how exactly does McCain substantiate his prediction? Did he just consult some crystal ball?

"Iraq is a functioning democracy, although still suffering from the lingering effects of decades of tyranny and centuries of sectarian tension," McCain said.

It appears he is paying attention to the Democratic Peace argument by Political Scientists rather than viewing into some crystal ball. He's setting a realistic time line.

Where does McCain reference any of this?

I can't do the work for you Mr. Big Dog. You're going to have to read the articles to discover it for yourself.

Unless it's written somewhere that this is the basis for McCain's prediction, then reading isn't going to do the trick. Are you somehow involved in the foreign policy part of McCain's campaign? If not, then how do you know how he arrived at the prediction he made unless he details it.

I have a minor in foreign and international affairs. I'm not on anybodies campaign but knowing what I know now out of all the candidates McCain's updated foreign policy is the most realistic. My educated guess how he arrived at his "timeline", remember the word "prediction" is the journalists word, because I know the Democratic Peace literature and that politicians are paying attention to it now. If you get a chance to read any of it and have some understanding of it it would be interesting to know your view point from there.

A minor in foreign and international affairs, eh? Cute.

I could if I wanted to but I ain't getting into a "my ####### is bigger than your #######" argument here. Suffice it to say that while you make assumptions which may well be valid you really have no idea what McCain based his statements on.

[GaryC 7]

Maybe I missed it but how exactly does McCain substantiate his prediction? Did he just consult some crystal ball?

Dog, do you hold Obama to the same standard? He is making some pretty grandiose promises himself.

[Dr. A ♥ O 203]

Maybe I missed it but how exactly does McCain substantiate his prediction? Did he just consult some crystal ball?

"Iraq is a functioning democracy, although still suffering from the lingering effects of decades of tyranny and centuries of sectarian tension," McCain said.

It appears he is paying attention to the Democratic Peace argument by Political Scientists rather than viewing into some crystal ball. He's setting a realistic time line.

Where does McCain reference any of this?

I can't do the work for you Mr. Big Dog. You're going to have to read the articles to discover it for yourself.

Unless it's written somewhere that this is the basis for McCain's prediction, then reading isn't going to do the trick. Are you somehow involved in the foreign policy part of McCain's campaign? If not, then how do you know how he arrived at the prediction he made unless he details it.

I have a minor in foreign and international affairs. I'm not on anybodies campaign but knowing what I know now out of all the candidates McCain's updated foreign policy is the most realistic. My educated guess how he arrived at his "timeline", remember the word "prediction" is the journalists word, because I know the Democratic Peace literature and that politicians are paying attention to it now. If you get a chance to read any of it and have some understanding of it it would be interesting to know your view point from there.

A minor in foreign and international affairs, eh? Cute.

I could if I wanted to but I ain't getting into a "my ####### is bigger than your #######" argument here. Suffice it to say that while you make assumptions which may well be valid you really have no idea what McCain based his statements on.

I used to share the leftist liberal ideals until I learned more about world politics and the causes of war if that tells you anything. If you're not willing to read the literature that's your perogrative.

Edited May 18, 2008 by Olivia*

[Dr. A ♥ O 203]

Maybe I missed it but how exactly does McCain substantiate his prediction? Did he just consult some crystal ball?

Dog, do you hold Obama to the same standard? He is making some pretty grandiose promises himself.

McCain's timeline on foreign policy is the most substantially realistic. Obama's and Clinton's foreign policy is the dangerous and not in the best interest of our country or the world even though popular opinion says otherwise. Iraq is on the Western model of revolution and during this time of transitional democracy they are highly susceptiable to radicals over taking the moderates and establishing a more coercive dictatorship than Saddam's Regiem. It's very scary because they have followed every step of the Western Model and the last thing I want as a concerned USC is the spread of Islamic fundamentalism. That is one thing the further leftist liberals need to get a grasp on.

[Jack and Barbara 0]

Maybe I missed it but how exactly does McCain substantiate his prediction? Did he just consult some crystal ball?

Dog, do you hold Obama to the same standard? He is making some pretty grandiose promises himself.

McCain's timeline on foreign policy is the most substantially realistic. Obama's and Clinton's foreign policy is the dangerous and not in the best interest of our country or the world even though popular opinion says otherwise. Iraq is on the Western model of revolution and during this time of transitional democracy they are highly susceptiable to radicals over taking the moderates and establishing a more coercive dictatorship than Saddam's Regiem. It's very scary because they have followed every step of the Western Model and the last thing I want as a concerned USC is the spread of Islamic fundamentalism. That is one thing the further leftist liberals need to get a grasp on.

So bascially the leftist liberals need to put out the fire created by the rightwing conservatives? Keep in mind extreme Islamic fundamentalists were not acting as terrorists or with Al Qaeda support in Iraq before the war