Our New Energy Crisis

[one...two...tree 2,762]

By Monika Bauerlein and Clara Jeffery

Almost four years ago, when oil was trading at around $40 a barrel, Paul Roberts wrote a story for Mother Jones on a bleak scenario gaining currency among energy insiders, but not yet in the mainstream consciousness: peak oil, basically the notion that the world's petroleum resources are nearing exhaustion. If the theory held true, Roberts warned, oil prices could soon leap to "perhaps as high as $100 per barrel—a disaster if we don't have a cost-effective alternative fuel or technology in place."

Welcome to the disaster: $100-a-barrel oil is in the rearview mirror, and no cost-effective (or even cost-prohibitive) alternative has emerged. The most dire consequences of this failing—hurricanes, drought, extinction—are occurring far more rapidly than even Slideshow Al could have predicted four years ago. And then there's the war.

It's easy enough to blame ####### Cheney, Big Oil, Detroit—all of whom have done their part in obstructing progress. But their chicanery distracts us from the far greater problem, one that, unfortunately, comes down to Organic Chemistry 101. Every technological advance of the last 150 years has been powered by a unique, extremely energy-dense, but finite—and, as it turns out, planet-killing—source of fuel. Switching away from fossil energy requires an economic and social transformation at least as great as the Industrial Revolution. And we have to build this new economy on the fumes of the old, hoping that we don't run out of gas, or ice caps, before we get there. As Roberts points out in this special issue on energy, if we sit on our hands or let the process be hijacked by vested interests, "there may not be enough crude left in the ground to fuel a second try."

This change will be painful. Building a new energy economy will require enormous government and private investment. It will involve massive workforce upheaval and possibly physical dislocation. The conservation measures demanded will make victory gardens or Jimmy Carter donning a sweater look like three-day diets.

The last time we took such issues seriously, in Carter's day, it was called an energy crisis. Thermostats were turned down across the land, and we went into R&D overdrive. And that crisis was only about the price of oil—which topped out at all of $78 in today's dollars. Few were talking about global warming or blood for oil.

Today's energy crisis is on a different scale. We're reliant on an ever-more dubious cast of characters to provide us power. And if you think the mortgage meltdown is troubling, wait till the markets discover the real price of carbon and realize that our entire economy is, essentially, built on a planetary accounting fraud.

Greenhouse gases, geology, and geo­politics give us no choice but to change our ways. The truth is, that change has already begun. Just as we've gone, in the space of a few years, from debating the validity of climate change to being confronted daily with the rapidity of glacial melting, so too will the shift to a postfossil economy, now largely imperceptible, soon be painfully evident. We can—as we did when confronted with the Great Depression or World War II—overhaul our society and economy and emerge stronger, or we can get swamped by change, watching helplessly as others ride the wave of postcarbon innovation. Will we be Chrysler or Toyota?

What we can't bank on is that some geek in Silicon Valley will, on her own, come up with the perfect solution. Nor will the treasured fixes of the left—solar panels on every roof, banning Hummers, forgoing imported tomatoes—be sufficient. The questions we face are on the order of: Are you willing to consider a nuclear plant in your back yard? If not your yard, whose? And if not a reactor, how about damming a bucolic river, or windmills that ruin a cherished view? What new regulations and taxes do we need to kick-start the transformation?

Forcing the nation to confront such questions is the most critical task our next president faces—more important than resolving the war, bolstering the economy, or fixing health care. As Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) has warned, the president will have advisers whispering that she or he "can appear forward-looking on energy with a few carefully chosen initiatives.... without asking for sacrifices or risking the possible failure of a more controversial energy policy."

We are guaranteed better leadership than Bush: John McCain introduced the first carbon cap-and-trade bill, and both Clinton and Obama have presented solid, at times groundbreaking, energy plans. But better isn't good enough. We need someone who recognizes the urgency and enormity of the task at hand, who won't fall for bromides like "energy independence" or "clean coal," and, most of all, who can shock the rest of us out of our complacency and ask for sacrifices. Let's hope that kind of change is in the offing.

http://www.motherjones.com/commentary/edno...itors-note.html

[mawilson 2,133]

I was just thinking.... oil prices hit record highs - nearly $120 a barrel - and keep rising,

supposedly to satisfy the growing economies of India and China. The $120 translates

into high gasoline prices - nearly $4 gallon here in the US.

The gas prices are so high that many Americans are looking for alternative ways to get to

and from work. Some are forced to ride the bus.

The question is, if the gas prices are forcing Americans to dig deeper into their pockets

to be able to afford a fill-up, how can the poorer folks in India and China afford it?

Shouldn't the high prices dampen the demand for gasoline in poorer countries?

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

The Indian government has price controls on gasoline. They subsidize it heavily.

[almaty 19]

i assume china does too.. i know imperial gallon in kazakhstan is porbably less than $1.00 ,,,it was 39cents in 2003

[mawilson 2,133]

The Indian government has price controls on gasoline. They subsidize it heavily.

How do they subsidize it?

When a barrel of crude costs $120, you can't make money selling a gallon of gasoline for 20c,

price controls or no price controls.

i assume china does too.. i know imperial gallon in kazakhstan is porbably less than $1.00 ,,,it was 39cents in 2003

Kazakhstan is different - they have their own oil.

[almaty 19]

The Indian government has price controls on gasoline. They subsidize it heavily.

How do they subsidize it?

When a barrel of crude costs $120, you can't make money selling a gallon of gasoline for 20c,

price controls or no price controls.

i assume china does too.. i know imperial gallon in kazakhstan is porbably less than $1.00 ,,,it was 39cents in 2003

Kazakhstan is different - they have their own oil.

true, but they could get more on the world market ..som they are subsidizing it...

[mawilson 2,133]

Not THAT cheap, apparently:

Gas prices from around the world:

HONG KONG HONG KONG $5.62

TAIWAN TAIPEI $2.47

CHINA TIANJIN $1.54

CHINA SHANGHAI $1.48

Mumbai May-06 $4.13

CNN link 1 CNN link2 CNN link3

Oslo, Norway $6.82

Hong Kong $6.25

Brussels, Belgium $6.16

London, UK $5.96

Rome, Italy $5.80

Tokyo, Japan $5.25

Sao Paulo, Brazil $4.42

New Delhi, India $3.71

Sydney, Australia $3.42

Johannesburg, South Africa $3.39

Mexico City $2.22

Buenos Aires, Argentina $2.09

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia $0.91

Kuwait City, Kuwait $0.78

Caracas, Venezuela $0.12

link

[GabiandVi 34]

Not THAT cheap, apparently:

Gas prices from around the world:

HONG KONG HONG KONG $5.62

TAIWAN TAIPEI $2.47

CHINA TIANJIN $1.54

CHINA SHANGHAI $1.48

Mumbai May-06 $4.13

CNN link 1 CNN link2 CNN link3

Oslo, Norway $6.82

Hong Kong $6.25

Brussels, Belgium $6.16

London, UK $5.96

Rome, Italy $5.80

Tokyo, Japan $5.25

Sao Paulo, Brazil $4.42

New Delhi, India $3.71

Sydney, Australia $3.42

Johannesburg, South Africa $3.39

Mexico City $2.22

Buenos Aires, Argentina $2.09

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia $0.91

Kuwait City, Kuwait $0.78

Caracas, Venezuela $0.12

link

Interesting. I live in Tianjin, China. The gas prices don't seem to slow people down. When I first arrived here 8 years ago there were a lot more bikes on the road than there are today. Most cars were either taxis or chauffeur-driven. There were very few privately owned cars on the road. But in the last 3 or 4 years, that has changed. There are car dealers everywhere. There is a Cadilac dealership on my way home, and I've seen several Hummers on the road. What it is more difficult to find is a gas station, though we are beginning to see more of those around. They are all Sino something or other, and I know the Chinese are heavily courting Africa.

[Gaby&Talbert 1]

Someday we will change and the technology is here now but as long as people in power are influenced by wealthy oil companies the change will be extremely slow. "Money makes the world go round" so what would happen if we changed to say hydrogen fuel cars in 5 years? In order to build the infastructure the people with the money to do this would probably be the oil people so they will want to make the same profits including recovery of the costs of the infastructure. The auto industry would actually benefit because everyone would have to get a new car eventually. Cars would be the least of the problem, utilities will be our biggest expense.

Bottom line is that the cost of change would be enormous regardless of the system. It will take a long time to change so we are probably looking at a 100 year transition minimum?