Extrapolating Igor's List

[CourtAndGrey 0]

To my fellow data-heads:

I've been crunching some numbers in an effort to see how closely we can rely on our dearly beloved Igor's list. (Seeing as how I check it nearly a billion times a day, it would be nice to know how close it is to the reality of our timelines). As far as I know, Igor's data comes from VJ timelines only. It is definitely nice to see how far along we are coming internally as VJ'ers, and of course its nice to see our names move slowly, but surely, up the 200-something person list as we get closer to appearing to be next for our NOA2 approvals.

However, our treasured list is merely internal. This does not indicate where we may be on the actual USCIS list, or which box of petitions we may be sitting in, on which shelf, and how many other boxes may be in front of ours.

From what I have been able to discern (and extrapolate accurately to the best of my ability), VJ members currently represent only about 5% of all K1 Visa filers. That means, when Igor shows us 52 NOA2's from last week (18 CSC + 34 VSC), we can extrapolate that to mean USCIS actually pushed out 1,040 for that week. It's a little mind boggling, but I've double checked my numbers, and it seems to be the case.

Any other number crunchers out there who would like to have a look at my crunching, just let me know, I'll send ya my sources. In the meantime, I guess the moral of the story is, don't be discouraged if Igor shows us little to no activity in any given period of time. Seeing as how we only represent about 5% of the petitions actually being shuffled through those boxes, it may not be a super-duper accurate reading, and things may still be moving at a reasonable pace in the CSC/VSC offices.

(All that said, I'm now going to go back to Igor's list to see if I've made progress from the last time I checked it, about 20 minutes ago!)

[MissYoko 4]

Its updated every hours

So.

No need to check it more than one time by hour.

Something i don"t understand.

I see sometimes my timeline moving and no change on the igor list at the same time... ?

[Yoink 7]

We represent only 5% so the metaphor is that we are kinda like exit polls during an election or the results after only 5% of the returns...

The hope is that we still reflect a cross-sampling of all filers so that our timelines and expectations are reasonable

[psiprez 3]

My instinct is to think that VJers are approved without RFE's more often than the general non-VJ population, and therefore our timelines move slightly quicker. To what extent, I have no idea.

We all know that having the support of the guides and the community is invaluable! And the fact that VJers are saavy enough to seek out and find VJ in the first place makes me think they are savvy enough to fill out the forms and adhere to the process more accurately.

I wonder if the case workers look at our petitions and think, "Oh... another VisaJourney member..."

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(no doubt this post just guaranteed our case will get an RFE... lol)

Edited March 14, 2008 by psiprez

[BlakeandOlha 0]

Well the problem in looking at the service centers and extrapolating K-1 activity, and how good or bad these centers are performing, is that these center's do far more than process K-1 visas. The adjudicators are working on work visas, student visas, family immigration visas, assylum, etc. Some of these visas have a higher priority that our K-1's. I have read that the work visa actually receives a higher priority level than the K-1, as do certain refugee/assylum visas. Now I don't begrudge the assylum seekers because most of the had to go through a lot to reach that "status", however, I do have a problem with the worker visas getting processed ahead of the K-1's. The K-1's relate to citizens the worker visas are for foreign workers to come and work in American companies. Citizens should take a higher priority, but we don't have a political action committee to argue on our behalf. So when you think of silicon valley (CSC filers) remember those programmers and engineers brought in from overseas moved ahead of you in line for visa approval and took up your adjudicator's time.

Let everyone in, I say, just after the citizens of this country have been taken care of.

[Saffyre 0]

Well the problem in looking at the service centers and extrapolating K-1 activity, and how good or bad these centers are performing, is that these center's do far more than process K-1 visas. The adjudicators are working on work visas, student visas, family immigration visas, assylum, etc. Some of these visas have a higher priority that our K-1's. I have read that the work visa actually receives a higher priority level than the K-1, as do certain refugee/assylum visas. Now I don't begrudge the assylum seekers because most of the had to go through a lot to reach that "status", however, I do have a problem with the worker visas getting processed ahead of the K-1's. The K-1's relate to citizens the worker visas are for foreign workers to come and work in American companies. Citizens should take a higher priority, but we don't have a political action committee to argue on our behalf. So when you think of silicon valley (CSC filers) remember those programmers and engineers brought in from overseas moved ahead of you in line for visa approval and took up your adjudicator's time.

Let everyone in, I say, just after the citizens of this country have been taken care of.

You make an excellent point - and one I had not previously thought of. It does make me cross when I think that the cases get touched and then left for weeks, and yet the former USCIS adjudicator who was on VJ said it can take no more than 15 mins to process a case. If you can look at the file - then why can't you approve it??

[CourtAndGrey 0]

My instinct is to think that VJers are approved without RFE's more often than the general non-VJ population, and therefore our timelines move slightly quicker. To what extent, I have no idea.

We all know that having the support of the guides and the community is invaluable! And the fact that VJers are saavy enough to seek out and find VJ in the first place makes me think they are savvy enough to fill out the forms and adhere to the process more accurately.

I wonder if the case workers look at our petitions and think, "Oh... another VisaJourney member..."

I think you're exactly right. The percentage of VJ'ers who end up with RFE's MUST be substantially lower than those who haven't found VJ. I wonder how much time that shaves off for all of us, on average.

Does anyone know if there is another VJ-like site out there?

[Yoink 7]

My instinct is to think that VJers are approved without RFE's more often than the general non-VJ population, and therefore our timelines move slightly quicker. To what extent, I have no idea.

We all know that having the support of the guides and the community is invaluable! And the fact that VJers are saavy enough to seek out and find VJ in the first place makes me think they are savvy enough to fill out the forms and adhere to the process more accurately.

I wonder if the case workers look at our petitions and think, "Oh... another VisaJourney member..."

I think you're exactly right. The percentage of VJ'ers who end up with RFE's MUST be substantially lower than those who haven't found VJ. I wonder how much time that shaves off for all of us, on average.

Does anyone know if there is another VJ-like site out there?

http://www.immigrate2us.net/

I actually found this site before I found VJ... but I only use VJ because there are considerably less members and post on that site than here