Dems can't win without superdelegates

[GaryC 7]

Dems can't win without superdelegates

By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER, Associated Press Writer

21 minutes ago

WASHINGTON -

Hillary Rodham Clinton won't catch Barack Obama in the race for Democratic delegates chosen in primaries and caucuses, even if she wins every remaining contest.

But Obama cannot win the nomination with just his pledged primary and caucus delegates either, according to an analysis by The Associated Press.

That sets the stage for a pitched battle for support among "superdelegates," the party and elected officials who automatically attend the convention and can support whomever they choose.

Two months into the voting, Obama can claim the most delegates chosen by voters.

Clinton can claim victories in most of the big states.

What should a superdelegate do? Unsurprisingly, the two campaigns have different takes on that question.

"It is very difficult to see any scenario that Hillary Clinton would get the nomination in a way that doesn't rip the party apart," said Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle, an Obama supporter. "I think that it would be a terrible mistake for the Democrats to not accept the will of the people who have turned out in primaries and caucuses."

Clinton spokesman Doug Hattaway said Obama's lead in pledged delegates is "hardly a mandate."

"Some superdelegates will go with (the) pledged delegate count, but many will go with the candidate they think can win," Hattaway said. "We have a very compelling case to make on that front, given that we're winning general election swing states, must-win states and must-win constituencies."

Clinton won three out of four primaries this week, giving her campaign a much-needed boost after a month of defeats.

But she picked up only 12 more delegates than Obama, leaving him with a 140-delegate lead among those won in primaries and caucuses. There are only 614 delegates available in the remaining contests, meaning Clinton would have to win about 62 percent of the them to overtake Obama, according to the AP analysis.

That's nearly impossible, given the way Democrats award delegates proportionally.

Consider this: Clinton posted a big win in the Ohio primary Tuesday, beating Obama by about 10 percentage points. Her take: nine more delegates than him in the Buckeye State.

In the Texas primary, Clinton's margin of victory was smaller, about 3 percentage points, and her net gain was smaller, too: four more delegates than Obama. Obama could wipe out most or all of that advantage if early returns showing him winning in the Texas caucuses hold up. Final results won't be available until the party's county conventions at the end of month.

The message to be taken from Clinton's victories, again, depends on which campaign is doing the spinning.

"In order to have a plausible path to the nomination, they needed to score huge delegate victories and cut into our lead," Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said in an e-mail to supporters. "They failed."

Clinton's campaign pointed to her earlier victories in states like New Jersey, New York and California, and they questioned why Obama couldn't win in Texas and Ohio on Tuesday.

"We think she can bring Ohio in a general election," said Harold Ickes, a chief strategist for Clinton. "We are not sure (Obama) can do that."

The biggest remaining primary is in Pennsylvania, which will have 158 delegates at stake on April 22.

Clinton's team is optimistic about her chances there. She'll be campaigning hard in the state, as will Ed Rendell, Pennsylvania's popular governor, who is an enthusiastic supporter.

Obama is expected to win the Wyoming caucuses Saturday and the Mississippi primary next Tuesday, but Clinton is competing in both states to hold down his delegate accumulation. Her advisers acknowledge their past system of focusing on certain states and largely ignoring others — particularly those holding caucuses — was a mistake and helped Obama build a significant lead among pledged delegates.

Obama has won nominating contests in 27 states and territories, giving him the lead in pledged delegates, 1,360 to 1,220. Even if he wins every remaining pledged delegate — including 33 that haven't been awarded from previous races — he will fall short of the 2,025 needed to secure the Democratic nomination.

That's where the superdelegates come in, the nearly 800 party and elected officials who will decide the nomination if both candidates stay in the race.

Clinton leads in endorsements from superdelegates, 242 to 209. But that lead has shrunk in the past month. Since an AP survey the week of Super Tuesday, Obama has added 53 superdelegates, while Clinton has had a net loss of one.

In the overall race for the nomination, Obama has 1,569 delegates, to 1,462 for Clinton, according to the latest AP tally.

The lobbying of superdelegates has been fierce, with at least six Clinton superdelegates switching to Obama. So far, none of Obama's superdelegates has strayed, at least not publicly.

David Parker, an undecided superdelegate from North Carolina, said he has been pressured by both sides to endorse. He offered some insight on how the outcome of the primaries and caucuses would influence his vote.

"In a fairly tight race — 35-50 votes — I think superdelegates have got a green light to vote how they want," Parker said. "If Obama's out there at 150, that's a red light, and I don't think the superdelegates have much business subverting the will of voters."

But, he added, "Every once in a while some people run red lights."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080306/ap_on_...crats_delegates

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Hypothetically, if Hillary were to win the rest of the Primaries with 100 percent of the vote, her total would be 1,840....185 delegates short.

...and get this...

If she were to win all the remaining Primaries with 60/40 (20 point margin) Obama would still have more delegates with 1613....Hillary with 1596.

Now taking into account the laws of probability on the conservative side of things, if they split the remaining Primaries at 50/50, Obama ends up with 1,677 and Hillary with 1,537.

The Super Delegates will have no choice but to throw their support behind the one with the lead, which is Obama. This is why Hillary threw everything at him but the kitchen sink before Tuesday and then projected enthusiasm over her wins ...because she's hoping on a small chance of chipping his lead down to 30, which is highly unlikely.

She'll probably win in PA and try to reconfirm that the momentum has swung her way.

As funky as those numbers seem, it is Clinton's Camp who is playing the numbers in hope that the Party will turn it's back on the frontrunner (like what happened to Obama?) and select her as the nominee. It's pie-in-the-sky thinking, but to her credit, going negative and pressing on that she's turned the corner has made an impact on the race.

Edited March 7, 2008 by Mister Fancypants

[no name 1]

Hypothetically, if Hillary were to win the rest of the Primaries with 100 percent of the vote, her total would be 1,840....185 delegates short.

...and get this...

If she were to win all the remaining Primaries with 60/40 (20 point margin) Obama would still have more delegates with 1613....Hillary with 1596.

Now taking into account the laws of probability on the conservative side of things, if they split the remaining Primaries at 50/50, Obama ends up with 1,677 and Hillary with 1,537.

The Super Delegates will have no choice but to throw their support behind the one with the lead, which is Obama. This is why Hillary threw everything at him but the kitchen sink before Tuesday and then projected enthusiasm over her wins ...because she's hoping on a small chance of chipping his lead down to 30, which is highly unlikely.

She'll probably win in PA and try to reconfirm that the momentum has swung her way.

As funky as those numbers seem, it is Clinton's Camp who is playing the numbers in hope that the Party will turn it's back on the frontrunner (like what happened to Obama?) and select her as the nominee. It's pie-in-the-sky thinking, but to her credit, going negative and pressing on that she's turned the corner has made an impact on the race.

However...

Florida & MI can make a difference if they do a re-vote.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Hypothetically, if Hillary were to win the rest of the Primaries with 100 percent of the vote, her total would be 1,840....185 delegates short.

...and get this...

If she were to win all the remaining Primaries with 60/40 (20 point margin) Obama would still have more delegates with 1613....Hillary with 1596.

Now taking into account the laws of probability on the conservative side of things, if they split the remaining Primaries at 50/50, Obama ends up with 1,677 and Hillary with 1,537.

The Super Delegates will have no choice but to throw their support behind the one with the lead, which is Obama. This is why Hillary threw everything at him but the kitchen sink before Tuesday and then projected enthusiasm over her wins ...because she's hoping on a small chance of chipping his lead down to 30, which is highly unlikely.

She'll probably win in PA and try to reconfirm that the momentum has swung her way.

As funky as those numbers seem, it is Clinton's Camp who is playing the numbers in hope that the Party will turn it's back on the frontrunner (like what happened to Obama?) and select her as the nominee. It's pie-in-the-sky thinking, but to her credit, going negative and pressing on that she's turned the corner has made an impact on the race.

However...

Florida & MI can make a difference if they do a re-vote.

I hope they do a re-vote...and I hope they give both candidates the chance to campaign in those states before the re-vote. If you still give her a 60/40 win for both FA and MI, that's 180 to Clinton and 120 to Obama.

Now follow my scenario of her winning every Primary from this point on 60/40, that would give Clinton 1,776 and Obama 1,733.

That's pie-in-the-sky thinking.

[no name 1]

Hypothetically, if Hillary were to win the rest of the Primaries with 100 percent of the vote, her total would be 1,840....185 delegates short.

...and get this...

If she were to win all the remaining Primaries with 60/40 (20 point margin) Obama would still have more delegates with 1613....Hillary with 1596.

Now taking into account the laws of probability on the conservative side of things, if they split the remaining Primaries at 50/50, Obama ends up with 1,677 and Hillary with 1,537.

The Super Delegates will have no choice but to throw their support behind the one with the lead, which is Obama. This is why Hillary threw everything at him but the kitchen sink before Tuesday and then projected enthusiasm over her wins ...because she's hoping on a small chance of chipping his lead down to 30, which is highly unlikely.

She'll probably win in PA and try to reconfirm that the momentum has swung her way.

As funky as those numbers seem, it is Clinton's Camp who is playing the numbers in hope that the Party will turn it's back on the frontrunner (like what happened to Obama?) and select her as the nominee. It's pie-in-the-sky thinking, but to her credit, going negative and pressing on that she's turned the corner has made an impact on the race.

However...

Florida & MI can make a difference if they do a re-vote.

I hope they do a re-vote...and I hope they give both candidates the chance to campaign in those states before the re-vote. If you still give her a 60/40 win for both FA and MI, that's 180 to Clinton and 120 to Obama.

Now follow my scenario of her winning every Primary from this point on 60/40, that would give Clinton 1,776 and Obama 1,733.

That's pie-in-the-sky thinking.

If he won all of them - by that same margin - and lost those 2 states, things will still be quite similar.

Tough math for BOTH candidates

Edited March 7, 2008 by illumine

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Hypothetically, if Hillary were to win the rest of the Primaries with 100 percent of the vote, her total would be 1,840....185 delegates short.

...and get this...

If she were to win all the remaining Primaries with 60/40 (20 point margin) Obama would still have more delegates with 1613....Hillary with 1596.

Now taking into account the laws of probability on the conservative side of things, if they split the remaining Primaries at 50/50, Obama ends up with 1,677 and Hillary with 1,537.

The Super Delegates will have no choice but to throw their support behind the one with the lead, which is Obama. This is why Hillary threw everything at him but the kitchen sink before Tuesday and then projected enthusiasm over her wins ...because she's hoping on a small chance of chipping his lead down to 30, which is highly unlikely.

She'll probably win in PA and try to reconfirm that the momentum has swung her way.

As funky as those numbers seem, it is Clinton's Camp who is playing the numbers in hope that the Party will turn it's back on the frontrunner (like what happened to Obama?) and select her as the nominee. It's pie-in-the-sky thinking, but to her credit, going negative and pressing on that she's turned the corner has made an impact on the race.

However...

Florida & MI can make a difference if they do a re-vote.

I hope they do a re-vote...and I hope they give both candidates the chance to campaign in those states before the re-vote. If you still give her a 60/40 win for both FA and MI, that's 180 to Clinton and 120 to Obama.

Now follow my scenario of her winning every Primary from this point on 60/40, that would give Clinton 1,776 and Obama 1,733.

That's pie-in-the-sky thinking.

If he won all of them, and lost those 2, things will still be quite similar.

How do you figure if there's a re-vote?

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Hypothetically, if Hillary were to win the rest of the Primaries with 100 percent of the vote, her total would be 1,840....185 delegates short.

...and get this...

If she were to win all the remaining Primaries with 60/40 (20 point margin) Obama would still have more delegates with 1613....Hillary with 1596.

Now taking into account the laws of probability on the conservative side of things, if they split the remaining Primaries at 50/50, Obama ends up with 1,677 and Hillary with 1,537.

The Super Delegates will have no choice but to throw their support behind the one with the lead, which is Obama. This is why Hillary threw everything at him but the kitchen sink before Tuesday and then projected enthusiasm over her wins ...because she's hoping on a small chance of chipping his lead down to 30, which is highly unlikely.

She'll probably win in PA and try to reconfirm that the momentum has swung her way.

As funky as those numbers seem, it is Clinton's Camp who is playing the numbers in hope that the Party will turn it's back on the frontrunner (like what happened to Obama?) and select her as the nominee. It's pie-in-the-sky thinking, but to her credit, going negative and pressing on that she's turned the corner has made an impact on the race.

However...

Florida & MI can make a difference if they do a re-vote.

I hope they do a re-vote...and I hope they give both candidates the chance to campaign in those states before the re-vote. If you still give her a 60/40 win for both FA and MI, that's 180 to Clinton and 120 to Obama.

Now follow my scenario of her winning every Primary from this point on 60/40, that would give Clinton 1,776 and Obama 1,733.

That's pie-in-the-sky thinking.

If he won all of them, and lost those 2, things will still be quite similar.

How do you figure if there's a re-vote?

Exactly. Heck, Obama wasn't even on the ballot in MI. Neither were then contenders Edwards, Biden and Richardson. Hillary ran against nobody but Kucinich, Dodd and Gravel in Michigan and got all of 55% of the vote. 40% rather voted for nobody at all than for her. I think she'd have a hard time winning that state running against Obama. In FL, Obama's recognition in Jan wasn't nearly what it is today. She would not score as well as she did back in Jan if there's a re-vote here in June. Bring it on, I say. Bring it on.

Edited March 7, 2008 by Mr. Big Dog

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Exactly. Heck, Obama wasn't even on the ballot in MI. Neither were then contenders Edwards, Biden and Richardson. Hillary ran against nobody but Kucinich, Dodd and Gravel in Michigan and got all of 55% of the vote. 40% rather voted for nobody at all than for her. I think she'd have a hard time winning that state running against Obama. In FL, Obama's recognition in Jan wasn't nearly what it is today. She would not score as well as she did back in Jan if there's a re-vote here in June. Bring it on, I say. Bring it on.

...and staying true to her nature, Hillary said today that she doesn't want a re-vote.

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/03/06/po...ry3915709.shtml

[Dan J 277]

Exactly. Heck, Obama wasn't even on the ballot in MI. Neither were then contenders Edwards, Biden and Richardson. Hillary ran against nobody but Kucinich, Dodd and Gravel in Michigan and got all of 55% of the vote. 40% rather voted for nobody at all than for her. I think she'd have a hard time winning that state running against Obama. In FL, Obama's recognition in Jan wasn't nearly what it is today. She would not score as well as she did back in Jan if there's a re-vote here in June. Bring it on, I say. Bring it on.

...and staying true to her nature, Hillary said today that she doesn't want a re-vote.

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/03/06/po...ry3915709.shtml

That was not a surprise.

[Pinocchio Liberal 268]

Hypothetically, if Hillary were to win the rest of the Primaries with 100 percent of the vote, her total would be 1,840....185 delegates short.

...and get this...

If she were to win all the remaining Primaries with 60/40 (20 point margin) Obama would still have more delegates with 1613....Hillary with 1596.

Now taking into account the laws of probability on the conservative side of things, if they split the remaining Primaries at 50/50, Obama ends up with 1,677 and Hillary with 1,537.

The Super Delegates will have no choice but to throw their support behind the one with the lead, which is Obama. This is why Hillary threw everything at him but the kitchen sink before Tuesday and then projected enthusiasm over her wins ...because she's hoping on a small chance of chipping his lead down to 30, which is highly unlikely.

She'll probably win in PA and try to reconfirm that the momentum has swung her way.

As funky as those numbers seem, it is Clinton's Camp who is playing the numbers in hope that the Party will turn it's back on the frontrunner (like what happened to Obama?) and select her as the nominee. It's pie-in-the-sky thinking, but to her credit, going negative and pressing on that she's turned the corner has made an impact on the race.

However...

Florida & MI can make a difference if they do a re-vote.

I hope they do a re-vote...and I hope they give both candidates the chance to campaign in those states before the re-vote. If you still give her a 60/40 win for both FA and MI, that's 180 to Clinton and 120 to Obama.

Now follow my scenario of her winning every Primary from this point on 60/40, that would give Clinton 1,776 and Obama 1,733.

That's pie-in-the-sky thinking.

SO TYPICAL

[SqdnGuns 21]

Repeat of 1968?

[Pinocchio Liberal 268]

Dems are all about revotes,Lawyers,Al Gore! Now their usin the same tactics on each other Maybe it will work this time. Throwin shite and hopin it STICKS!

[rebeccajo 14]

Dems are all about revotes,Lawyers,Al Gore! Now their usin the same tactics on each other Maybe it will work this time. Throwin shite and hopin it STICKS!

Marc....

When GW didn't get what he wanted, he took it to the friggin' SUPREME COURT? Where's your memory?

[Pinocchio Liberal 268]

Dems are all about revotes,Lawyers,Al Gore! Now their usin the same tactics on each other Maybe it will work this time. Throwin shite and hopin it STICKS!

Marc....

When GW didn't get what he wanted, he took it to the friggin' SUPREME COURT? Where's your memory?

Becca, It isnt about GW! I know your a good person, I have seen it in you. We just disagree on the politics. When you show so much venom for ppl that you disagree with you it takes away from the love that you give. It also shows that you can hate just as much.

[Cassie 8]

Dems are all about revotes,Lawyers,Al Gore! Now their usin the same tactics on each other Maybe it will work this time. Throwin shite and hopin it STICKS!

Marc....

When GW didn't get what he wanted, he took it to the friggin' SUPREME COURT? Where's your memory?

Becca, It isnt about GW! I know your a good person, I have seen it in you. We just disagree on the politics. When you show so much venom for ppl that you disagree with you it takes away from the love that you give. It also shows that you can hate just as much.