Zipline

I had an Infopass meeting today, face to face. When I said I knew of people getting approved in Nov and Dec. The person stumbled. Then said, is this a friend of yours you're speaking about. Don't think they take to kindly to us knowing so much about there lies and incompetency.

This is a very good article about the how the Obama administration is posing a dire threat to legal immigration processes as we know it. The PDF in the article has some very pointed information about DACA.
http://www.fairus.org/publications/president-obama-s-record-of-dismantling-immigration-enforcement

Here's the new video: (original link disabled, please see new link at http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/424394-video-is-complete-start-sharing/page__view__findpost__p__6145474 )
it's late, and I'm tired, so it may not be ready for public consumption...so please don't start promoting it yet.
Take a look, and let me know if anything is obviously wrong, or needs fixed before it goes live.
Also, I'd like suggestions for links, if people want more information... For sure I'll put I&B's analysis, and a link to the ombudsman... anything else?
Thanks!

I am happy for the November/December applicants who are receiving approvals, but it makes me wonder WTH CSC is really doing. How dare them place our applications on a halt as if they don't have a care in the world. They don't seem to understand that they are playing with peoples lives, and I just don't think they care. It pisses me off knowing that the 29th will make 8 months for me as others are being approved in less than 5 who filed 3-4 months after me as well as others. I wonder if the July-October files were the ones that were damaged when they were having plumbing issues? If so, do they think it's fair to request new applications and evidence from each applicant whose file was damaged because of their careless actions? I have no issues with the DACA applicants, but I don't think it's fair that other applications were placed on the back burner. I am a law abiding citizen and I deserve fairness and justice. I have written my congresswoman and I hope she can be of help and hope others follow in my footsteps because a closed mouth won't get fed and CSC is beyond themselves at this point.

Wow. I know this is the government and all ... but just ridiculous.

I put together a short video (original link disabled - please see http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/424394-video-is-complete-start-sharing/page__view__findpost__p__6145474 for the new link) as a means of getting the word out about what's going on at the CSC.
it's basically a draft, about a minute and a half long. My goal is to get some input from all of you wonderful folks, clean it up and add in any suggestions you might have, and get it out there tomorrow night, for all to post to whatever social media they see fit.
there's not a lot of info in it, I didn't want to complicate it, so I was going to add some links in at the bottom for more information.
I'll take suggestions on those as well!
Thanks!

I'd say that any time you have more than a single block of text on the screen is a mistake. And you should slow it down so that people have a chance to read each paragraph. A good rule of thumb would be to read each paragraph aloud very slowly as it appears before cuing the next block of text.
Re specific text:
0:42 A few months ago... paragraph:
In August, 2012, the Department of Homeland Security, without Congress's approval, mandated that the USCIS implement a new program called DACA, which provides the children of illegal immigrants permission to stay and work in the US for two years.
0:42 At the CSC... paragraph:
Many tens of thousands of DACA petitions began streaming into the USCIS's service centers, with the California Service Center being particularly inundated.
Rather than ask that DACA petitioners wait a few extra weeks for processing, USCIS, likely acting under political pressure, decided to take drastic action to ensure that these DACA petitioners were completed more quickly than the statutory petition types already pending. In short, the USCIS decided that I-129F fiance visa petitioners would have to wait indefinitely to be reunited with their loved ones as they all-but stopped processing fiance visa petitions to quickly process DACA petitions.
Completion rates for fiance visas are now at the lowest levels on record and have been so since December, 2012. And there is no end in sight to the delays as the backlog of petitions piles up.
Then I think you can return to the wait time paragraph.
I'd also add something in about how hard it is to plan moving, weddings, etc. with not answers. And probably something to emphasize the inanity of the "July 18, 2012" processing time frame manipulation, as well.
Lastly, whatever you decide on as the final script, you should include it all as text in the video description for search engines.

Maybe slow down the frames that have lot sof text in them. I got distracted for 2 seconds and couldnt catch up . I agree post for both. I think we all agree things need to move faster all around.

I've seen many posts recently made by soon-to-be petitioners who wonder which USCIS service center--the California Service Center or the Vermont Service Center--will ultimately process their I-129F petition. Here's a little history of the breakdown and the answer.
Since the USCIS changed their system a few years back to require that all I-129F petitioners send their petitions to the Texas Lockbox facility, it is understandable that the ultimate destination isn't readily apparent based on the current filing directions. Luckily for us, however, the Texas Lockbox still operates to divy up and forward the petitions based on the same state-by-state rules that existed when petitioners were required to directly send their petition to the appropriate service center for their state of residence. That list is hard to find online, but I happened to stumble upon it preserved in the book Fiance & Marriage Visas: A Couple's Guide to U.S. Immigration, and would like to pass it along here for posterity.
Per the book, the breakdown was as follows:
California Service Center States/Territories:
Alaska
Arizona
California
Colorado
Guam
Hawaii
Idaho
Nevada
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
North Dakota
Ohio
Oregon
South Dakota
Utah
Washington
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Vermont Service Center States/Territories
Alabama
Arkansas
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
South Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
US Virgin Islands
Vermont
Virginia
West Virginia

As an October filer, I can see I have at least a few more grim months ahead of me under any realistic scenario. I think the next step is to try and get that grim reality some traction in the media to embarrass the USCIS for letting things get to this point. Before I do that, however, I think I need to translate the algorithm I developed for this calculator into some more easily digestible graphs and charts. Beyond that, I'm just as clueless as everyone else here.

Wouldn't it be nice to be able to tell your Congressman or Senator exactly how many days you can expect your petition to be delayed according to the USCIS's own published figures on the CSC slowdown? Well, now you can!
In part of my never ending quest to get to analyze the USCIS's published data and interpret it in meaningful ways, I have created a spreadsheet that can calculate one's expected NOA2 date based on seven different hypothetical scenarios. I believe this is a very useful tool for those who are working with congressional offices, as I recommended in my previous post. Though the hypothetical scenarios are somewhat crude, they should give you a sense of why we need to fight to get the CSC back-on-track in terms of processing I-129Fs.
Directions:
1. Download the excel spreadsheet I have prepared here. (Note: this spreadsheet also includes all the data I prepared for my CSC data analysis thread)
2. Make sure it is open to the "projected delays" tab.
3. Enter the date of your NOA1 in the yellow box at the top. (Note: this will only work through NOA1s issued through December, 2012)
4. Look in awe at the potentially catastrophic effects on our petitions if this slowdown continues.
How It Works:
I've left all of my calculations plainly visible for those who are interested. But for those who do not want to reverse engineer it, the spreadsheet works as follows: It simply takes the date you input and assumes that your petition submitted on that date will be completed once all other applications still pending at the time of your submission have been completed. For each of the seven scenarios provided, it then counts down completions per day (using the USCIS's published rates through January, 2013 and then my hypothetical rates thereafter) until the app has been completed and then reports the completion dates to the top grid for your viewing pleasure.
Limitations:
1. This spreadsheet assumes that, on average, petitions will be processed serially in the order they are received. Obviously that assumption still leaves room for error with any individual petition, so the date provided is a rough estimate.
2. For simplicity's sake, this spreadsheet does not distinguish between weekends and weekdays as far as the service center's completions per day is concerned. This shouldn't drastically effect the estimated completion date, but it may slightly (+/- 2-3 days) in certain cases.
3. The estimated completion scenarios are deliberately crude. They start by assuming that the 537 completions per month rate of January 2013 continued through February and March (in truth, I suspect the February and March rates were likely even lower based on Igor's list data, but I'm using only published data for the spreadsheet). They then assume a flat rate (either the median or fast rate) begins at the specified month and continues indefinitely without change. For now, they do not try to capture the undulating nature of the processing rates over time (though I will have an updated version that does so in the near future); rather, they just provide baselines for worst-case, best-case, and middle-ground scenarios.
4. I'm not perfect and there may be errors somewhere in there. I didn't test every date myself. Please report any errors you find.
5. Note that some July filers may see that they should have been processed by now according to the worst-case scenario data. Yes, I know. That's not an error. It just means that February and March completion rates were likely much worse than we know as of yet and that even the worst case scenarios here are optimistic in a sense.
My next project will be to make some graphs that extrapolate these calculations to truly show the devastating effect of the slowdown on the expected completion dates of those who filed in the fall. So if you find any mistakes in this version, please let me know before I build upon it further.

Hi, it took a while to come up with how to ask.
I'm writing with my fiance in California.
Thanks for the notice, I hope these questions are relevant.
1.
Discrepancies in USCIS stated numbers:
Is there any way to make the agency present numbers to reflect reality so K-1 filers could expect when they will get their approval?
As we know, California Service Center is processing July I-129F petitions from last December. It's 5 months now, which suggests they aren't really working on K-1. When we filed in February their Processing Timeframe was 5 months, and the Processing Times from case status page was 5.5 month(s). The Processing Times changed later to 6.6 month(s) and now to 7.5 month(s). If you were a July 19th filer, you are already waiting for 8.5 months but won't be able to require a service request as USCIS will tell you " your case is within normal timeframe".
From USCIS' National Processing Volumes and Trends site, CSC I-129F backlog is 11,898 and completion is 574 for January 2013. If my understanding is correct, and with the current processing rate, simple calculation shows it will take 20.72 months to clear the backlog.
Furthermore, Vermont is processing K-1 now at 5-6 months. CSC is at 8-10 months average from what we hear from VJ members.
Some VJ members were told by USCIS staff over the phone to allow for 1 year for adjudication.
With these facts in mind, can we call this process fair and transparent?
Isn't this causing such an uncertainty to add to the waiting?
2.
CSC is causing undue pain to I-129F filers:
Could there be an oversight system to make USCIS process all/ most of all the cases within the stated national goal of 5 months?
It seems that DACA cases are given top priority at the expense of I-129F. USCIS started K-1 and K-3 visas so that loved ones don't have to be separated for a long time. Now it's failing to attain the goal. Many filers cannot plan their holiday, work, school, living etc. because of the opaque procedure from CSC. For instance, we read on VJ that many filers with children aren't able to plan for the next school year. Altogether, it's causing such huge economical and mental loss. People are fighting depression every day after passing the 5 months national goal.
As for my case, I was diagnosed premature ovarian failure(POF) after engagement. It means my ovary decided to close down. It'll stop functioning soon. My dream is to have a family with kids... I cannot start full-fledged treatment such as external fertilization when I'm still unmarried and never tried to become pregnant. How can I explain to doctors? This is tormenting me for all the efforts not to think about it.
People have their own situation and reason. From humanitarian standpoint, CSC shouldn't be allowed to prolong the procedure beyond the national goal at its disposal.
We would like to require an oversight by a third party to balance workload and personnel so that ALL the visa types are processed according to the national goal.

I decided to take my own statistical jab at the USCIS data, as others have. I think it was the worth the effort and I found some interesting things to highlight.
Since the K-1 process is already depressing enough, I will start with the most negative findings and work my way up to the positives (The Ugly, The Bad and The Good) and try to end on a positive note.
I decided to stick w/ raw numbers and not graphs. The one thing I find very bizarre is the volatility of the forms processed per month at both the CSC and VSC and I wanted to put some figures together to show just how bizarre it truly is.
Here are the 3 charts (I-129F CSC, I-129F VSC, and I-8219 DACA CSC), and below are my explanation of the the stats and my findings ...
csc.tiff
vsc.tiff
daca.tiff
Explanation of derived stats:
==========================
Pro-rated March 2013 for DACA ... Since only the first 14 days of March 2013 were available for DACA, I decided to pro-rate the data for the month of March rather than throw away the data. Reallize though that this March 2013 DACA
data is an approximation, not real numbers.
Column G - Backlog (number of forms). This one is simple. It is the previous month's Pending work carried forward to the first of the month. This is presented for the following month so we can show how much backlog (total work) there was to be worked on at the start of the month.
Column H - Current Month, Projected Completion (in months). This is the most telling figure, in my opinion. This column essentially says ... "Hypothetically, if no new forms at all were received from this month onward and the service center only worked what it had in it's backlog at the rate it worked this month how long would it take to finish the work?"
Column I - Average Rate, Projected Completion (in months). Similar to Column H, this column asks ... "Hypothetically, if no new forms at all were received from this month onward and the service center only worked what it had in it's backlog at the monthly rate it worked on average, how long would it take to finish the work?" For I-129F, the average is over the last two years Feb 2011-Jan 2013. For DACA it's Sept 2012-Mar 2013 (pro-rated).
Column J - Maximum Rate, Projected Completion (in months). Similar to Column H, this column asks ... "Hypothetically, if no new forms at all were received from this month onward and the service center only worked what it had in it's backlog at the highest monthly speed demonstrated, how long would it take to finish the work?" Again, for I-129F, the average is over the last two years Feb 2011-Jan 2013. For DACA it's Sept 2012-Mar 2013 (March prorated).
Column K - Versus Goal (in months). Shows how far ahead/behind the service center is of reaching it's National Service Goal, working at the speed it's working this month. Positive numbers indicate they will likely complete work ahead of time by X months on average, while negative numbers show they will likely complete work behind schedule by X months on average.
Column L - Ahead/Behind (number of forms). This stat is helpful because it shows whether the processing center gained (positive) or lost (negative) ground when looking at the forms finished during the month as compared to the forms received that month.
================
The Ugly:
================
DACA - This is wonderful news for DACA petitioners and very disconcerting news to us at CSC or VSC. According to the USCIS website, I-821D DACA has a 6 month National Service Goal. Yet, CSC seems to process its DACA forms at a 3 month rate (H25-H27 DACA, green) and a 2-month rate for March prorated (H28 DACA, blue)! Considering the enormous amount of DACA work, why are they finishing 2-3 times ahead of schedule?! What are they trying to prove by working so fast, when no one ever has waited anywhere close to 6 months for a DACA? This is a huge question to ask.
VSC - You will notice the backlog numbers are generally higher at the VSC and reached a maximum of 18,898 (G22 VSC, dark red). For folks who have sufferred at the VSC, we can see that, for whatever reason, historically VSC has carried a larger backlog than the CSC and that the VSC folks have paid the price with longer waits, up until Jan 2013 where they have probably turned a corner based partially on these Jan 2013 figures and what we've seen on VJ.
CSC - These numbers are really troubling. In this data (H25 and H26 CSC, red) we can see that the CSC was shockingly slow working K-1's in Dec 2012 and Jan 2013. If the CSC worked at its December 2012 pace indefinitely to finish it's K-1 backlog, it would take 20.11 months to finish the work. If the CSC worked at its January 2013 pace indefinitely to finish it's K-1 backlog, it would take 19.04 months to finish the work. Notice these figures are worse than any anemic single-month pace at the VSC (VSC's worst was 15.5 in July 2012). This is a worst case scenario, but it's conceivable many people would wait 15-20 months now from NOA1 to NOA2, four times the service goal, if CSC puts forth its worst effort indefinitely.
================
The Bad:
================
VSC - The VSC got way behind in May 2012-July 2012, falling more than 900 forms behind each month (L18-L20 VSC, light red)! It is really good thing the VSC turned things around in the last 4-6 months or they could have reached a 20k form backlog - easy.
CSC - Notice that in May 2011, CSC was working on a pace to complete it's backlog in 2.78 months (H6 CSC, salmon). And about the time that VSC was very bogged down, CSC was working on a completion pace of 3.34 and 2.99 in July 2012 and Aug 2012, respectively (H20-H21 CSC, purple). So why is this bad news? Because it warps expectations. We have probably all heard from friends "oh yeah, so-and-so went to through the CSC and it only took 3 months!" prior to filing a K-1 at CSC. This shows that, intentional or not, the USCIS are the ones manufacturing the drama with such wild variations in completion figures per month. The numbers show that if USCIS could just stabilitize and produce at a steady pace, they could easily do the work in 5 months instead of subjecting people to a 3 to 11 month crapshoot. Wouldn't you rather just wait the 5 months rather than risk waiting 9-11 months?!
The Good:
================
DACA - The USCIS did indeed get bombed with DACA forms from Sept 2012 - Nov 2012 (almost 100k per month), but receipts now seem to have stabilized at about 30k per month. The DACA work has lessened and should in theory be quite manageable now by the USCIS.
VSC - The good is certainly the 4,439 completion number from Jan 2013 (C26 VSC, purple). In that month they really worked ahead of the National Goal for the first time and cut out a huge chunk of backlog. We'll see what the Feb 2013 and March 2013 numbers say, but perhaps the VSC backlog is a thing of past and it's finally down to a 5-month waiting time, if not a little sooner.
CSC - The good news is that, as of Jan 2013, our backlog is really not that bad - 10,929 (G26 CSC, grey). If they turned around and started processing at an average rate they could be caught up in a little over 6 months (I26 CSC, blue). If they really attacked the problem at their previous monthly maximum, they could make sure every K-1 waiting any amount of time from today backward is served within 3.1 months (J26 CSC, brown)! This proves they don't have to move Heaven and Earth to serve us and solve the problem at CSC, they just simply need to increase output to what they've demonstrated before.
I have to be a little fair to the USCIS though and realize there are many kinds of USCIS forms out there and resources are constrained and there's bureacracy, inefficiency, etc. So a modest goal, would be to have CSC and VSC would be kicking out their K-1 Visas at a 5 month rate, following the National Service Goal and column K would be as close to zero as possible). After all, most of us probably saw the National Service Goal of 5 months and the other figures close to it when we filed at CSC. Longer than I would prefer to wait? Certainly, but it's what I got when I signed up.
Oscillating between 3,525 per month and 484 per month at CSC is just madness. If they want to keep people from going ape about the CSC for a few months and then things being super hunky dory in a few months, all they need to do is work at their maximum pace for a single month to weed out those waiting too long and then drop back to their average pace to serve at approximately 4-5 months from here on out.

Whatsapp chatting, Facebook chatting, Skyle video....and it's not enough ?
But at least it's something.
I'm just SO ANXIOUS for the day when we can live together.
I'm a VERY IMPATIENT person so this is going to be hard but I love him soooo much.
This is just gonna make us stronger.

Hi guys. I have been listening to a podcast called Immigration Hour http://www.americaswebradio.com/showpages/immigrationHour.php
Today I approached the Law Firm that puts this podcast out and suggested that they do an hour on Family Based Visas and our concerns. He was enthusiastic about such a podcast and says that he will make it one of his next two podcasts. I also asked if I could ask my fellow VJ buddies for questions that they would like addressed, and he said that he would be glad to answer ALL questions asked.
So, what do you guys want to have addressed on such a program? Post here, let's discuss relative merits of the questions and then I will collate and post the ones I think should get asked, giving y'all time for feedback to keep me in my place...
Moderators, should this be somewhere else? If so where? Can I cross post on other forums or would that be frowned upon?
Mark

Great work. I've been working on something similar with the projections but I have largely been stumped on how to move forward. The problem is that, if you really get into the dashboard data, it doesn't add up.
Specifically, you would think that the number of apps pending in one month would be a simple function of how many apps were pending in the previous month plus the previous month's receipts and minus its completions. But that's not the case at all. There is a huge, inexplicable divergence in what that number of pending would be and the number actually reported. Over the two years of dashboard data I have, i calculate there is an average discrepancy of 1700 pending apps per month. I cannot explain it, and, since I cannot explain it, I cannot figure out the actual relationship between pending and completions from month to month and project a consistent estimate based on it.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on how you dealt with this. It drove me crazy all last weekend and I'm gearing up to have another go at the problem this weekend.

I decided to take my own statistical jab at the USCIS data, as others have. I think it was the worth the effort and I found some interesting things to highlight.
Since the K-1 process is already depressing enough, I will start with the most negative findings and work my way up to the positives (The Ugly, The Bad and The Good) and try to end on a positive note.
I decided to stick w/ raw numbers and not graphs. The one thing I find very bizarre is the volatility of the forms processed per month at both the CSC and VSC and I wanted to put some figures together to show just how bizarre it truly is.
Here are the 3 charts (I-129F CSC, I-129F VSC, and I-8219 DACA CSC), and below are my explanation of the the stats and my findings ...
csc.tiff
vsc.tiff
daca.tiff
Explanation of derived stats:
==========================
Pro-rated March 2013 for DACA ... Since only the first 14 days of March 2013 were available for DACA, I decided to pro-rate the data for the month of March rather than throw away the data. Reallize though that this March 2013 DACA
data is an approximation, not real numbers.
Column G - Backlog (number of forms). This one is simple. It is the previous month's Pending work carried forward to the first of the month. This is presented for the following month so we can show how much backlog (total work) there was to be worked on at the start of the month.
Column H - Current Month, Projected Completion (in months). This is the most telling figure, in my opinion. This column essentially says ... "Hypothetically, if no new forms at all were received from this month onward and the service center only worked what it had in it's backlog at the rate it worked this month how long would it take to finish the work?"
Column I - Average Rate, Projected Completion (in months). Similar to Column H, this column asks ... "Hypothetically, if no new forms at all were received from this month onward and the service center only worked what it had in it's backlog at the monthly rate it worked on average, how long would it take to finish the work?" For I-129F, the average is over the last two years Feb 2011-Jan 2013. For DACA it's Sept 2012-Mar 2013 (pro-rated).
Column J - Maximum Rate, Projected Completion (in months). Similar to Column H, this column asks ... "Hypothetically, if no new forms at all were received from this month onward and the service center only worked what it had in it's backlog at the highest monthly speed demonstrated, how long would it take to finish the work?" Again, for I-129F, the average is over the last two years Feb 2011-Jan 2013. For DACA it's Sept 2012-Mar 2013 (March prorated).
Column K - Versus Goal (in months). Shows how far ahead/behind the service center is of reaching it's National Service Goal, working at the speed it's working this month. Positive numbers indicate they will likely complete work ahead of time by X months on average, while negative numbers show they will likely complete work behind schedule by X months on average.
Column L - Ahead/Behind (number of forms). This stat is helpful because it shows whether the processing center gained (positive) or lost (negative) ground when looking at the forms finished during the month as compared to the forms received that month.
================
The Ugly:
================
DACA - This is wonderful news for DACA petitioners and very disconcerting news to us at CSC or VSC. According to the USCIS website, I-821D DACA has a 6 month National Service Goal. Yet, CSC seems to process its DACA forms at a 3 month rate (H25-H27 DACA, green) and a 2-month rate for March prorated (H28 DACA, blue)! Considering the enormous amount of DACA work, why are they finishing 2-3 times ahead of schedule?! What are they trying to prove by working so fast, when no one ever has waited anywhere close to 6 months for a DACA? This is a huge question to ask.
VSC - You will notice the backlog numbers are generally higher at the VSC and reached a maximum of 18,898 (G22 VSC, dark red). For folks who have sufferred at the VSC, we can see that, for whatever reason, historically VSC has carried a larger backlog than the CSC and that the VSC folks have paid the price with longer waits, up until Jan 2013 where they have probably turned a corner based partially on these Jan 2013 figures and what we've seen on VJ.
CSC - These numbers are really troubling. In this data (H25 and H26 CSC, red) we can see that the CSC was shockingly slow working K-1's in Dec 2012 and Jan 2013. If the CSC worked at its December 2012 pace indefinitely to finish it's K-1 backlog, it would take 20.11 months to finish the work. If the CSC worked at its January 2013 pace indefinitely to finish it's K-1 backlog, it would take 19.04 months to finish the work. Notice these figures are worse than any anemic single-month pace at the VSC (VSC's worst was 15.5 in July 2012). This is a worst case scenario, but it's conceivable many people would wait 15-20 months now from NOA1 to NOA2, four times the service goal, if CSC puts forth its worst effort indefinitely.
================
The Bad:
================
VSC - The VSC got way behind in May 2012-July 2012, falling more than 900 forms behind each month (L18-L20 VSC, light red)! It is really good thing the VSC turned things around in the last 4-6 months or they could have reached a 20k form backlog - easy.
CSC - Notice that in May 2011, CSC was working on a pace to complete it's backlog in 2.78 months (H6 CSC, salmon). And about the time that VSC was very bogged down, CSC was working on a completion pace of 3.34 and 2.99 in July 2012 and Aug 2012, respectively (H20-H21 CSC, purple). So why is this bad news? Because it warps expectations. We have probably all heard from friends "oh yeah, so-and-so went to through the CSC and it only took 3 months!" prior to filing a K-1 at CSC. This shows that, intentional or not, the USCIS are the ones manufacturing the drama with such wild variations in completion figures per month. The numbers show that if USCIS could just stabilitize and produce at a steady pace, they could easily do the work in 5 months instead of subjecting people to a 3 to 11 month crapshoot. Wouldn't you rather just wait the 5 months rather than risk waiting 9-11 months?!
The Good:
================
DACA - The USCIS did indeed get bombed with DACA forms from Sept 2012 - Nov 2012 (almost 100k per month), but receipts now seem to have stabilized at about 30k per month. The DACA work has lessened and should in theory be quite manageable now by the USCIS.
VSC - The good is certainly the 4,439 completion number from Jan 2013 (C26 VSC, purple). In that month they really worked ahead of the National Goal for the first time and cut out a huge chunk of backlog. We'll see what the Feb 2013 and March 2013 numbers say, but perhaps the VSC backlog is a thing of past and it's finally down to a 5-month waiting time, if not a little sooner.
CSC - The good news is that, as of Jan 2013, our backlog is really not that bad - 10,929 (G26 CSC, grey). If they turned around and started processing at an average rate they could be caught up in a little over 6 months (I26 CSC, blue). If they really attacked the problem at their previous monthly maximum, they could make sure every K-1 waiting any amount of time from today backward is served within 3.1 months (J26 CSC, brown)! This proves they don't have to move Heaven and Earth to serve us and solve the problem at CSC, they just simply need to increase output to what they've demonstrated before.
I have to be a little fair to the USCIS though and realize there are many kinds of USCIS forms out there and resources are constrained and there's bureacracy, inefficiency, etc. So a modest goal, would be to have CSC and VSC would be kicking out their K-1 Visas at a 5 month rate, following the National Service Goal and column K would be as close to zero as possible). After all, most of us probably saw the National Service Goal of 5 months and the other figures close to it when we filed at CSC. Longer than I would prefer to wait? Certainly, but it's what I got when I signed up.
Oscillating between 3,525 per month and 484 per month at CSC is just madness. If they want to keep people from going ape about the CSC for a few months and then things being super hunky dory in a few months, all they need to do is work at their maximum pace for a single month to weed out those waiting too long and then drop back to their average pace to serve at approximately 4-5 months from here on out.

I decided to take my own statistical jab at the USCIS data, as others have. I think it was the worth the effort and I found some interesting things to highlight.
Since the K-1 process is already depressing enough, I will start with the most negative findings and work my way up to the positives (The Ugly, The Bad and The Good) and try to end on a positive note.
I decided to stick w/ raw numbers and not graphs. The one thing I find very bizarre is the volatility of the forms processed per month at both the CSC and VSC and I wanted to put some figures together to show just how bizarre it truly is.
Here are the 3 charts (I-129F CSC, I-129F VSC, and I-8219 DACA CSC), and below are my explanation of the the stats and my findings ...
csc.tiff
vsc.tiff
daca.tiff
Explanation of derived stats:
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Pro-rated March 2013 for DACA ... Since only the first 14 days of March 2013 were available for DACA, I decided to pro-rate the data for the month of March rather than throw away the data. Reallize though that this March 2013 DACA
data is an approximation, not real numbers.
Column G - Backlog (number of forms). This one is simple. It is the previous month's Pending work carried forward to the first of the month. This is presented for the following month so we can show how much backlog (total work) there was to be worked on at the start of the month.
Column H - Current Month, Projected Completion (in months). This is the most telling figure, in my opinion. This column essentially says ... "Hypothetically, if no new forms at all were received from this month onward and the service center only worked what it had in it's backlog at the rate it worked this month how long would it take to finish the work?"
Column I - Average Rate, Projected Completion (in months). Similar to Column H, this column asks ... "Hypothetically, if no new forms at all were received from this month onward and the service center only worked what it had in it's backlog at the monthly rate it worked on average, how long would it take to finish the work?" For I-129F, the average is over the last two years Feb 2011-Jan 2013. For DACA it's Sept 2012-Mar 2013 (pro-rated).
Column J - Maximum Rate, Projected Completion (in months). Similar to Column H, this column asks ... "Hypothetically, if no new forms at all were received from this month onward and the service center only worked what it had in it's backlog at the highest monthly speed demonstrated, how long would it take to finish the work?" Again, for I-129F, the average is over the last two years Feb 2011-Jan 2013. For DACA it's Sept 2012-Mar 2013 (March prorated).
Column K - Versus Goal (in months). Shows how far ahead/behind the service center is of reaching it's National Service Goal, working at the speed it's working this month. Positive numbers indicate they will likely complete work ahead of time by X months on average, while negative numbers show they will likely complete work behind schedule by X months on average.
Column L - Ahead/Behind (number of forms). This stat is helpful because it shows whether the processing center gained (positive) or lost (negative) ground when looking at the forms finished during the month as compared to the forms received that month.
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The Ugly:
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DACA - This is wonderful news for DACA petitioners and very disconcerting news to us at CSC or VSC. According to the USCIS website, I-821D DACA has a 6 month National Service Goal. Yet, CSC seems to process its DACA forms at a 3 month rate (H25-H27 DACA, green) and a 2-month rate for March prorated (H28 DACA, blue)! Considering the enormous amount of DACA work, why are they finishing 2-3 times ahead of schedule?! What are they trying to prove by working so fast, when no one ever has waited anywhere close to 6 months for a DACA? This is a huge question to ask.
VSC - You will notice the backlog numbers are generally higher at the VSC and reached a maximum of 18,898 (G22 VSC, dark red). For folks who have sufferred at the VSC, we can see that, for whatever reason, historically VSC has carried a larger backlog than the CSC and that the VSC folks have paid the price with longer waits, up until Jan 2013 where they have probably turned a corner based partially on these Jan 2013 figures and what we've seen on VJ.
CSC - These numbers are really troubling. In this data (H25 and H26 CSC, red) we can see that the CSC was shockingly slow working K-1's in Dec 2012 and Jan 2013. If the CSC worked at its December 2012 pace indefinitely to finish it's K-1 backlog, it would take 20.11 months to finish the work. If the CSC worked at its January 2013 pace indefinitely to finish it's K-1 backlog, it would take 19.04 months to finish the work. Notice these figures are worse than any anemic single-month pace at the VSC (VSC's worst was 15.5 in July 2012). This is a worst case scenario, but it's conceivable many people would wait 15-20 months now from NOA1 to NOA2, four times the service goal, if CSC puts forth its worst effort indefinitely.
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The Bad:
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VSC - The VSC got way behind in May 2012-July 2012, falling more than 900 forms behind each month (L18-L20 VSC, light red)! It is really good thing the VSC turned things around in the last 4-6 months or they could have reached a 20k form backlog - easy.
CSC - Notice that in May 2011, CSC was working on a pace to complete it's backlog in 2.78 months (H6 CSC, salmon). And about the time that VSC was very bogged down, CSC was working on a completion pace of 3.34 and 2.99 in July 2012 and Aug 2012, respectively (H20-H21 CSC, purple). So why is this bad news? Because it warps expectations. We have probably all heard from friends "oh yeah, so-and-so went to through the CSC and it only took 3 months!" prior to filing a K-1 at CSC. This shows that, intentional or not, the USCIS are the ones manufacturing the drama with such wild variations in completion figures per month. The numbers show that if USCIS could just stabilitize and produce at a steady pace, they could easily do the work in 5 months instead of subjecting people to a 3 to 11 month crapshoot. Wouldn't you rather just wait the 5 months rather than risk waiting 9-11 months?!
The Good:
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DACA - The USCIS did indeed get bombed with DACA forms from Sept 2012 - Nov 2012 (almost 100k per month), but receipts now seem to have stabilized at about 30k per month. The DACA work has lessened and should in theory be quite manageable now by the USCIS.
VSC - The good is certainly the 4,439 completion number from Jan 2013 (C26 VSC, purple). In that month they really worked ahead of the National Goal for the first time and cut out a huge chunk of backlog. We'll see what the Feb 2013 and March 2013 numbers say, but perhaps the VSC backlog is a thing of past and it's finally down to a 5-month waiting time, if not a little sooner.
CSC - The good news is that, as of Jan 2013, our backlog is really not that bad - 10,929 (G26 CSC, grey). If they turned around and started processing at an average rate they could be caught up in a little over 6 months (I26 CSC, blue). If they really attacked the problem at their previous monthly maximum, they could make sure every K-1 waiting any amount of time from today backward is served within 3.1 months (J26 CSC, brown)! This proves they don't have to move Heaven and Earth to serve us and solve the problem at CSC, they just simply need to increase output to what they've demonstrated before.
I have to be a little fair to the USCIS though and realize there are many kinds of USCIS forms out there and resources are constrained and there's bureacracy, inefficiency, etc. So a modest goal, would be to have CSC and VSC would be kicking out their K-1 Visas at a 5 month rate, following the National Service Goal and column K would be as close to zero as possible). After all, most of us probably saw the National Service Goal of 5 months and the other figures close to it when we filed at CSC. Longer than I would prefer to wait? Certainly, but it's what I got when I signed up.
Oscillating between 3,525 per month and 484 per month at CSC is just madness. If they want to keep people from going ape about the CSC for a few months and then things being super hunky dory in a few months, all they need to do is work at their maximum pace for a single month to weed out those waiting too long and then drop back to their average pace to serve at approximately 4-5 months from here on out.

It's more like getting to know how to live apart from each other. Getting to know period ends when her status changes from gf to fiancee.

From the site, it would appear that it is not. It seems to be an example of one of the problems that Mr. Obama intends to address with his executive orders:
"I migrated to the U.S. with my parents in 1986. We were lucky to have had the opportunity to enter the U.S. legally. However, my now husband did not have the means to be able to migrate in the same manner. He migrated to the U.S. in 1993 and remained illegal until 2008 due to advice by lawyers that there was no way he could fix his status. When we finally decided to apply for his U.S. residency, his visa was denied and he has been in Mexico for 5 years now...and in the meantime we continue to be separated."
So, 5 year separation? They have my sympathy.
I am definitely not opposed to DACA and other types of deferral actions. I am just opposed to them being made a priority at the expense of other, more legitimate, visa petitions (and, yes, I consider family visa petitions to be more legitimate, as they are not intended to correct some past, let's say "inability", to follow the law. At most, they should just queue up along with the rest of us.
But what do I know? I am apparently supposed to be spending my time getting to know my fiancee.

WELCOME TO HELL.

Thanks for posting. Seems that the numbers are pretty steady in that USCIS is processing about 50k a month and receiving about 30k new ones per month, now that the initial flood at the end of 2012 has passed.

You are absolutely right it is rediculous that this is the way the government chooses to treat its citizens and customers I might add, but it is not in the least surprising. Hopefully eveyone invoved in this process will remember this when it comes time to vote, just remember which party is pro big governmet and vote as far opposite as possible. If these service centers were privatized it would be far less expensive and much more productive! Just my thoughts.

I use petition and application interchangeably because I don't think the whole process need be any more byzantine than it already is. Yes, I know it is technically a "petition" but, in common terms, it's an application.
Anyway, if you look deeply into the published data on adjudications as I have, you see enough ebb and flow to know the processing protocols are a lot more complicated than just 15 minutes per petition. But, yes, at the end of the day, the completion rates are driven by the number of adjudicators assigned. I'm sure there are a lot of factors used in determining how those adjudicators are signed and some of them are political. Everyone who has taken poli sci 101 knows politics is, after all, the distribution of scarce resources (and adjudicator eyes are a scarce resource). Still, however, I think everyone accepts the basic premise that the politics of the day can extend only so far into the process. When one class of petitioner becomes so favored to the detriment of another, as has happened with the quickly processed DACA petitioners at the expense of I-129F petitioners since August, 2012, there is a major problem. This is especially true when you consider the fragmented and momentary nature of any particular class of immigration petitioner; we need to keep in place a system that guarantees a decent, timely, and consistent standard of review for everyone.
And that's really what I'm getting at with this. I do think that many will find they can get their cases expedited to an extent by getting congressional pressure. Squeaky wheel meet grease and all. But the overarching point is that the USCIS is broken and, beyond a prerogative to better their own lot, I think current petitioners have a responsibility to future petitioners to demand the system be fixed.

Sorry guys, I forgot to include a WHERE clause on my DELETE statement. Did someone remember to make a backup???