Trending towards 12 months

[S2N 324]

Not sure if this is the best place to post it, but what are people’s thoughts on the likelihood that the median case time is trending towards 12 months?

 

They processed April in approximately 3 weeks before starting on May. All months since then have been roughly equal or less in application size.
 

If they continue at that rate, they’ll start January 2025 the last week in December. Kinda hard to believe since we were at 17 months median when people in January filed; but the math is what it is.

[TBoneTX 47,519]

Thread, seemingly pertaining to CR-1 times, is moved from the CR-1 Case Progress subforum to the USCIS Service Centers forum -- topic involves overall rapidity.

[S2N 324]

9 minutes ago, TBoneTX said:

Thread, seemingly pertaining to CR-1 times, is moved from the CR-1 Case Progress subforum to the USCIS Service Centers forum -- topic involves overall rapidity.

Thanks, wasn’t sure the best location and the IR-1/CR-1 timelines seemed most natural. Thanks for moving

 

Yes, was discussing standalone I-130s which are now processing at one month every 3 weeks give or take.

[TBoneTX 47,519]

Very good, and a very good discussion topic.  Let's hope that this slowdown is temporary.

[spicynujac 70]

I did a LOT of searching / worrying about this while we were waiting.  In the end the VJ Timeline estimate was accurate to within a week or so.  Interestingly it doesn't have an estimate for you, apparently due to lack of recent data from Chile.

 

Doing a manual search it seems there is only 1 Chile case completed recently.  Until the VJ timeline estimate updates, the next best thing would be monitoring those 11 other pending apps and seeing when the oldest one receives their visa.  Or, alternatively, just waiting for at least a year to go by without worrying about it, if you can.

 

Total Number of records in Database meeting search criteria: 12 (Visas Received = 1, Visas Pending = 11)

 

If you asked me the best estimate today off the data I would say 15 months, give or take, of backlog until they start processing your app, then another 6 months to receive the visa.  21 months total.

We waited 13 1/2 months before processing began, 21 months total.    Very similar ballpark.

So, September 2026?  Just a wild guess from insufficient evidence though.  

[S2N 324]

1 hour ago, spicynujac said:

I did a LOT of searching / worrying about this while we were waiting.  In the end the VJ Timeline estimate was accurate to within a week or so.  Interestingly it doesn't have an estimate for you, apparently due to lack of recent data from Chile.

 

Doing a manual search it seems there is only 1 Chile case completed recently.  Until the VJ timeline estimate updates, the next best thing would be monitoring those 11 other pending apps and seeing when the oldest one receives their visa.  Or, alternatively, just waiting for at least a year to go by without worrying about it, if you can.

 

Total Number of records in Database meeting search criteria: 12 (Visas Received = 1, Visas Pending = 11)

 

If you asked me the best estimate today off the data I would say 15 months, give or take, of backlog until they start processing your app, then another 6 months to receive the visa.  21 months total.

We waited 13 1/2 months before processing began, 21 months total.    Very similar ballpark.

So, September 2026?  Just a wild guess from insufficient evidence though.  

VJ estimate isn’t great if they’re accelerating catching up on a backlog — gives you the current speed more than anything, which I agree is around 14.5-15 months right now.

 

If you look at the public data and approvals they got through April in 2-3 weeks, and April has roughly the same population of I-130s of all the following months. If they keep up that processing speed, you’re looking at getting back to 11-12 months.
 

Its way to early to tell, but it looks like things are trending positive.