How are processing times obtained?

[hhN400 3]

It seems to me that the average processing time shown here specifically for I129F petitions for the VSC is not an accurate reflection of the actual processing times. (Haven't looked whether the same may apply to other service centers as well.) The numbers updated here daily do not make sense to me and seem to be way to optimistic. My question, therefore, is how exactly are these averages obtained?

I apologize for the double-post. I had asked the same question over in the K3 forum, but got no response.

[no name 1]

It seems to me that the average processing time shown here specifically for I129F petitions for the VSC is not an accurate reflection of the actual processing times. (Haven't looked whether the same may apply to other service centers as well.) The numbers updated here daily do not make sense to me and seem to be way to optimistic. My question, therefore, is how exactly are these averages obtained?

I apologize for the double-post. I had asked the same question over in the K3 forum, but got no response.

They are simply put, an average wait time from all who posted their timelines!

[hhN400 3]

They are simply put, an average wait time from all who posted their timelines!

One would think so, of course, but how is it then that the numbers change even if one cannot see any activity on the posted timelines? My observation only applies to the VSC processing for I129F petitions. Over the course of the last two, three weeks the average processing time at VSC changed between 28 and 35 days, yet over this period nobody reported receiving any NOA2. How is it possible then that the average changes?

[Captain Ewok 1,858]

Many people update their timelines and do not publically post about it. Probably the reason .

[hhN400 3]

Many people update their timelines and do not publically post about it. Probably the reason .

Yes, but don't those timelines appear on the timeline tables accessible viahttp://www.visajourney.com/timeline/? It's on those tables where I'm missing activity that might justify the changes one sees in the posted averages.

[Captain Ewok 1,858]

That is sometimes the case. There is actually a bit of smarts built into the mechanism that take into consideration many different factors. One that may in some cases cause variability (but should also in most cases reduce it) is that a sliding window average is used to smooth data. So if there is an outlier in there it will in most cases be ignored but in some included in the data set which would shift the days a day or so (minimized by the weighted avg). WHen it falls out of the data set it will change things again. Just speculation though since I do not know which one you are looking at. If there is also too little data to make a valid estimation on dates we will not estimate it as we do not want to predict dates that are not based on at least a certain amount of valid data.

I hope that helps give you more insight .

[hhN400 3]

...I hope that helps give you more insight.

Thanks for your response. Being a scientist, I think I have a good idea of how averaging and data massaging is done. However, I still don't understand the data.

My own interest is in the K3 timelines of the Vermont SC. Currently it says that the average time between filing the I129F petition and NOA2 is 35 days. For this to be true, a significant number of cases must have timelines well below 35 days. If I look at the table with K3 timelines I don't see anywhere near the number of cases to bring about such a low average. If at all, the average could perhaps be brought down if one lumps K1 cases together with K3 cases. (Haven't really looked at those closely, but it might be possible.) If that's the way it's done (Is it?), then the average processing time is not a very good indicator for K3 timelines and therefore not very helpful since the tables here indicate that there seems to be a significant difference in processing time between K1 and K3 (at least at the VSC).

[Captain Ewok 1,858]

If I have some time I will look at the exact data and manually run through the algo's onvolved to get you an answer .

[hhN400 3]

If I have some time I will look at the exact data and manually run through the algo's onvolved to get you an answer .

OK. Thanks.

[Captain Ewok 1,858]

If you are a K3 then you filed an I-130 at the VSC and the MSC is processing your I-129F. Where you looking for the processing times for the I-129f there? If so (and I think this might be where the confusion is) the time at the MSC is about a 100 days:

I saw you are a K-3 so I made this assumption. You I-130 at the SC is processing as follows:

[hhN400 3]

If you are a K3 ...

OK, I understand what you are saying. However, two questions: First, does this mean that the processing time of 35 days for I129F petitions shown for the VSC applies only to K1? (If so, it might be helpful to point this out explicitly.) Second, my K3 case was transferred to the VSC three weeks ago (which seems to be the standard procedure these days). Do the MSC processing times still apply?

Thanks for you help.

--hh

Edited May 15, 2007 by hhk3