An interesting graph for I 751 forms

[xillini 71]

So I have been doing USCIS statistics for I 751 (during my work hour lol) and found out they are slipping through I 751 specifically (I should run some ANOVA testing to test null hypothesis that USCIS does not neglect I 751, but I havent' done that for long time). 

Anyway, I made a graph about yearly I 751 and it is not only surprising but also agitating. 

 

With annual average number of applications around 160,000 cases (even including fiscal year of 2017), USCIS approves cases 140,000 annually until 2017 fiscal year. 

In 2017, USCIS approves 80,000 I 751 cases with similar application received around 160,000, which significantlly increased the time processing from 6 months to 18-20 months now. 

 

Only reasonable account is USCIS has been received many more applications as I included in total forms from 6 million ish to 8.5 million in 2017, knowing that I 751 is for those who already have lawful status and therefore dont need urgent immigration benefits. 

So they distributed their resources (mainly employees, or immigration officers) to other immigration benefits applications (which I suspect it would be related to DACA, which has somewhat controversial legal ground)

 

Unfortunately, according to fiscal year 2018 data as well, USCIS approves only around 20,000 cases in 1st quarter, and with 4 quarter, USCIS will likely process 80,000 cases if nothing significant changes,

so.... if USCIS does not really increase its speed, given that I 751 annual application is around 160,000 cases, it will be around 30-32 months (because similar statistics increased the processing time from 6 months to 18 -20 months, so adding 12 to 18-20 months would be 30-32 months).

I do know USCIS started to distribute some  I 751 to other centers like Texas, Nebraska, but let's see. 

If you dont see USCIS significantly increasing approving cases in 2nd quarter (which would be published around August),

it is every i 751's filer's best interest to apply for N 400 regardless as soon as you are eligible to apply (because N 400 can trigger I 751 approval in most of cases, and there is no reason to wait for 30-42 months for I 751 approval). 

Given that you are still happily married to spouse, the interview will be enough that IO will be convinced to process I 751 and N400 simultaneously. Also, due to increased processing timeline, I am sure that many of local USCIS offices will be more aware I 751 pending during N 400 interviews so they will start to establish a guidance (like memo from higher officials in USCIS) under immigration and naturalization act(INA). At the bare minimum, INA allows to I 751 pending adjucated in prior to N 400, so if you are happily married, I would assume there is nothing afraid, other than some inconvenience.

 

In order to retrieve lost opportunity costs that would have been processed (around 140,000 annual approvals) for I 751 in fiscal year of 2017, USCIS needs to process at least 180,000 cases in fiscal year of 2018. If you see this numbers by the end of fiscal year, it means then that processing timeline can be faster to less than 12 months for those who will apply for I 751 next year, (one of whom is me), and therefore, N 400 can be an option, not a requirement.  

 

So the recent USCIS notification that extension letter will be now 18 months, I don't know if it is red flag that USCIS just decided to torture the fate of I 751 filers, or it is a warm gesture that they are now starting to pay attention to I 751. I can't tell yet, but I would remain hopeful.

I am very excited to see next USCIS quarterly data pulblication soon! 

 

Hope this helps! 

 

Raw data is here. 

 

Forms Received2	Approved3	Total Forms
166,431	89,001	8,530,722	2017
144,648	134,288	8,070,917	2016
165,785	147,520	7,650,475	2015
178,359	154,983	6,384,648	2014
171,651	231,778	6,477,977	2013

 

 

 

Edited July 11, 2018 by xillini

[HabeshaWife2016 26]

Awesome Info! Thanks for putting this together.