Any Chance?

[MustafaG 0]

Hi everyone,

My CN is AS000085xx. I understand that this is a very high number for Iran, where I come from. I have just submitted my DS260, so far no expenses. But I would like to know if I have any chance of going all the way to the finish line? According to the previous year visa bulletin the number came up in July, but I have been told Iran is special case and may not get that high, or even if the number comes up the interview will be in two months time which is September. Should I spend any money getting my documents translated and get vaccination, or just save my money and not bother?

Thanks for any help.

Mustafa

[sam416 3]

Your number is high but not too high to not get an interview. You will probably get current around June. However, being from Iran, there is a high chance of you being put in administrative processing which sometimes takes months to clear and given that your interview will be around June or July, you might not clear administrative processing before the end of fiscal year (September 30). It's up to you to decide what to do. But if I were you, I would take that chance because you still have a good chance to make it through.

[MustafaG 0]

Thanks Sam,

That's good to know. Not so worried about the AP. My main concern was not even getting an interview. There has been a lot of discussions where it was mentioned that Nepal and Iran are special case and may have early cut off, although that wasn't the case for Iran last year or the year before. What I'm still not sure about is when my case number becomes current (say around July) is that the time that I should expect the interview or will it be another couple of months AFTER the case becomes current? That is the time line that is not clear for me. If anyone has had that experience (especially from Iran) and can share, I would be grateful.Is it going to be a couple of weeks after becoming current or a couple of months, between becoming current and actually having the interview? I don't mean being notified of the date, actually having the interview, or does it depend on the embassy? Also would the fact that I submitted my DS260 in December make any difference given that the number isn't going to be current for at least 6 months? Any insight would be appreciated.

Thanks

M

[SusieQQQ 11,584]

If your forms have been processed on time your interview will happen in the month that you become current. You will be notified about this a couple of months in advance, for example if you are current in June, your interview should be in June, but you will know about this sometime in April - which is when the advance notification for the June visa bulletin is pubiished and when the 2NLs will be sent out.

[Hank1 1]

Here are some stats that may be useful. Not saying you get it or not, just that these are facts, draw your own conclusions.

This year (2015) there are 125,514 selectees compared with 2014 140,660. That should in theory mean more chance of getting an interview. Also there are 4,992 from Iran compared with 6,027 for 2014. So over a 1000 less selectees than last year for Iran. This should translate to a higher chance of getting an interview than last year, but not necessarily getting through. Can others who are more familiar with the process and statistical chances see a flaw in my logic?

[Alphajo 2]

Hello, am scheduled for interview in February. I've a high school certificate which is tech Voc but use for further academic studies & I also have Diploma in Computer Science graduated last year .I also currently attached at a Cyber Cafe as a Network Admin from July 2012 till now. I ticked that I want to join the Military as soon I get Green Card. what will be my chance of getting Visa?

[sogreeny 2]

Hello,

do they ask for bank statement or minimum financial proof for the interview of dv lottery?

I mean in the letter for the interview.

[Britsimon 18]

Thanks Sam,

That's good to know. Not so worried about the AP. My main concern was not even getting an interview. There has been a lot of discussions where it was mentioned that Nepal and Iran are special case and may have early cut off, although that wasn't the case for Iran last year or the year before. What I'm still not sure about is when my case number becomes current (say around July) is that the time that I should expect the interview or will it be another couple of months AFTER the case becomes current? That is the time line that is not clear for me. If anyone has had that experience (especially from Iran) and can share, I would be grateful.Is it going to be a couple of weeks after becoming current or a couple of months, between becoming current and actually having the interview? I don't mean being notified of the date, actually having the interview, or does it depend on the embassy? Also would the fact that I submitted my DS260 in December make any difference given that the number isn't going to be current for at least 6 months? Any insight would be appreciated.

Thanks

M

Why are you not worried about the AP? Do you have reason to believe your case won't be subject to the AP (which is almost "standard" for Iranian cases). As Sam pointed out, AP cases from Iran took a LONG time in 2014 resulting in a massive decrease in visas issued for Iran for DV2014 compared to DV2013. So, if things stay the same, an Iranian case being interviewed in Jul/Aug/September and being put on AP is highly likely to time out.

[MustafaG 0]

Well I suppose the reason I'm not too worried about the AP is that although I was born in Iran, I am not an Iranian citizen and have lived in Europe since the age of 16. I have travelled many times to the US and my fingerprints are on file. I understand that the AP for Iranian citizens takes longer since they must pass FBI clearance as the police check certificates are not accepted by the US government. Since I can produce police check certificates and have been to the US frequently, I am hoping that my clearance should be ok. I also have plenty of cash and other assets so proving non reliance on government shouldn't be a problem which is another issue for Iranians as they often have to rely on affidavit of support from friends and relatives which again takes time to checkout for authenticity. My medical records and vaccination are all from Europe and so are my degree and other qualifications. So I am keeping my fingers crossed that the VO is not going to put me on AP. I am also going to the local embassy and not Ankara or Dubai so I should in theory at any rate be subject to the same checks as other citizens of EU. Do you think that is a fair assumption?

[SusieQQQ 11,584]

I can see why you seem complacent, however, they are stricter for immigrant visas than visit visas. Other people have reported no problem with visit visas and then being placed on AP for DV or other IVs. Will it happen to you? Can't say for certain, but it might. The west currently has enough examples of radicalization of people who have been there for years or even of second generation immigrants. They will err on the side of caution.

[MustafaG 0]

Thanks Susie, but that is the chance everybody takes. Nothing is for certain. My main worry was not even getting the interview given my high number. A lot of Iranians who have never been to US and only become current in August still make it through. Looking through Iranian Forums, at other people's comments, it seems that the majority of delays/ rejections are to do with lack of funds, or delays in FBI check for younger guys. I've seen a lot who did clear AP in a week or two. Iran still fills up their 7% allocation every year despite all the issues. If the US wanted to err on the side of caution, it would make Iran illegible since there is more that 50,000 immigrant to US annually from Iran under other visas, but they make a special case by allowing them to enter the lottery. A unique privilege denied to so many other countries such as UK. Iranian government may not have a good relation with the rest of the world, but no Iranian people have been involved in acts of terrorism unlike those from other countries in that area. So I'm hoping that the visa officer is less a bit less one dimensional!

[Hank1 1]

Mustafa my friend, I wouldn't worry too much about it. Nothing you can do if you get selected for AP and no one can predict it one way or another. No one here is a visa officer, and even those who have gone through the process just only done it once and in different embassies with different back grounds and were seen by different visa officers than everyone else. So I wouldn't fret too much. We all are just guessing, no one has an insight anymore than knowing the few facts that are available, such as the stats from previous years and what documents and qualifications are needed which are available from the official web sites anyway. No one can know for a fact if you get selected for AP or not, but I would have thought your chances are as good as anyone, so don't get put off. As you yourself have pointed out, Iran gets special treatment if anything and they have one of the highest DV migration rates maxing out their allocation every year, so I don't believe they would make it any harder for you than is necessary.

[SusieQQQ 11,584]

Thanks Susie, but that is the chance everybody takes. Nothing is for certain. My main worry was not even getting the interview given my high number. A lot of Iranians who have never been to US and only become current in August still make it through. Looking through Iranian Forums, at other people's comments, it seems that the majority of delays/ rejections are to do with lack of funds, or delays in FBI check for younger guys. I've seen a lot who did clear AP in a week or two. Iran still fills up their 7% allocation every year despite all the issues. If the US wanted to err on the side of caution, it would make Iran illegible since there is more that 50,000 immigrant to US annually from Iran under other visas, but they make a special case by allowing them to enter the lottery. A unique privilege denied to so many other countries such as UK. Iranian government may not have a good relation with the rest of the world, but no Iranian people have been involved in acts of terrorism unlike those from other countries in that area. So I'm hoping that the visa officer is less a bit less one dimensional!

I'm not quite sure why you come on here looking for opinions if you just dismiss all those you don't like, but whatever....

Incidentally iran does not reach its 7% maximum each year (it's not an "allocation" by the way), and a number of other Iranians have reported that Iranian interviews don't usually get scheduled beyond July because of the AP issue. As you keep emphasising though, you are a special case, so I'm sure none of that applies to you. Good luck with your application, and do come back and let us know how it worked out.

[SusieQQQ 11,584]

I don't know why you all seem to think iran maxes out every year. It maxed out in DV13, only. Stats for the years before that are here http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/DV-2014-Instructions-Translations/FY12AnnualReport-TableVII.pdfand nowhere else did it come anywhere near the 3500 max. I believe DV14 was well under max too but dont have that number to hand.

[MustafaG 0]

And I don't know why you feel you have to say something, when you don't have anything helpful to say!. I'm not dismissing all those I don't like, just yours.