Max CNs for DV-2014 who will have an interview

[MalcomX 1]

since the number of the selectee has been reduced from 140k to 125k, if we assume that they will keep that number it means that the 140k for DV-2014 was too much, let's calculate this diminution region by region then try to calculate the max CN for each region relative to that diminution, and taking in account the specifies for each region:

DV-2015 la diff avec la DV-2014 en pourcentage
EU = 40 000 - 6600 14%
AF = 58 000 -4000 7%
AS = 20 002 -3300 14%
OC = 3 499 -700 16%
SA = 3 999 -600 13%

theoretically we have 4000 extra selectees this year for Africa, we know that Egy, Gha and Ethi will be not affected by any restriction since all their CNs are low, Nigeria will be an exception since their CNs is not progressing very well,

62k- the 3 special countries = 46550

46550-4000= 42550,

without Nigeria we will have 42550-6043= 36507 (just to have a uniform distribution from 1 to 117k)
the total without the special countries is 62mil- 4 countries= 40507

so 36507/40507=90.12%

117k (le max CN) * 90.12= 105446, around 105.5k



EU:
total: 46598
if we remove the special countries we will have 46598-6009 (Uk) -5014(UZ)=35575 (since they will not be affected by any restriction/no more special CN for them)

35575-6600=28975

28975/35575=81.44% (so 81.44% excluding UkR and UZB will have an interview)
let's calculate the CN:
since we know that the highest EU CN is around 53500, so 53500*81.44= 43570, so the highest EU CN will be around 43600

Asia:
I'll assume that even the special countries will be affected by the limit of 14% including Iran and Nepal, so the calculation will be easy

25000 (highest AS number) * 86% = 21500 (highest Asian CN)

SA:
since they don't have special counties the calculation is easy also, I am just not sure about the highest CN, I think it's around 3000,

so 3000 * 87% = 2610 (highest CN for SA)


OC:
same:
since i am not sure about the max OC CN, so just multiply that max CN time 0.84 (which is 100- 16%) , so you will get the correct value


Summary:
AF 105500
EU 43600
AS 21500
SA 2610
OC max CN * 0.84

[Sloner 0]

Europa - max CN 2015EU0045000. Further, the density decreases.

- max CN 2014EU0054000. Further, the density decreases.

The same equipment. I assume that the density numbers is reduced by the end.

[Sloner 0]

In Europe, I think there are three border reduction

1 - CN 0-20000.

2 - CN 20000-36000

3 - CN 36000-54000.

If in August in Europe will be a breakthrough, it will confirm this theory.

[MalcomX 1]

yes the density decrease but only at the end, see last year:

EU 24000-24999 227

EU 25000-25999 231

EU 26000-26999 241

EU 27000-27999 184

EU 28000-28999 101

EU 29000-29999 105

EU 30000-30999 66

and the 53500 was calculated assuming the same density (details in the other tread ....)

Europa - max CN 2015EU0045000. Further, the density decreases.

- max CN 2014EU0054000. Further, the density decreases.

The same equipment. I assume that the density numbers is reduced by the end.

Edited May 9, 2014 by MalcomX

[szym 2]

Europa - max CN 2015EU0045000. Further, the density decreases.

Hm, any proof of that?

Do we know all selected CN for DV2015 in EU?

Where can I find this data?

Edited May 9, 2014 by szym

[Sloner 0]

http://greencard.by/community/forum/forum27/topic6373/

http://www.paginaloteristilor.ro/forum/showthread.php?t=14168

http://www.govorimpro.us/%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B8%D0%B3%D1%80%D1%8B%D1%88%D0%B8-%D0%B2-green-card-%D0%BB%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B5/53117-dv-2015-%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%89%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%8F-%D0%BE-%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B8%D0%B3%D1%80%D1%8B%D1%88%D0%B0%D1%85.html

[szym 2]

http://greencard.by/community/forum/forum27/topic6373/

http://www.paginaloteristilor.ro/forum/showthread.php?t=14168

http://www.govorimpro.us/%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B8%D0%B3%D1%80%D1%8B%D1%88%D0%B8-%D0%B2-green-card-%D0%BB%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B5/53117-dv-2015-%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%89%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%8F-%D0%BE-%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B8%D0%B3%D1%80%D1%8B%D1%88%D0%B0%D1%85.html

Thanks for the links. I cannot take this as statistical data (not enough data to be statisticaly revelant), but...

...but it might be true what you are writing because if we would take the CNs from DV2014 that we know, and divide it to 5k ranges than it looks like this:

range of CNs (example: 0-5k means EU0 - EU5000) -> real # of CNs inside this range

0-5k -> 1614 CNs

5k-10k -> 1667 CNs

10k-15k -> 1626 CNs

15k-20k -> 1356 CNs

20k-25k -> 965 CNs

25k-30k -> 945 CNs

... it is decreasing. Good news for high CNs. The further we go, the more CNs is needed to issue the same amount of visas.

I wonder how many CNs are in the last 5k range

Any guess why the real # of CNs is decreasing if we go to high CNs? What is the idea of this? Why is it so?

[vladek15425 7]

Thanks for the links. I cannot take this as statistical data (not enough data to be statisticaly revelant), but...

...but it might be true what you are writing because if we would take the CNs from DV2014 that we know, and divide it to 5k ranges than it looks like this:

range of CNs (example: 0-5k means EU0 - EU5000) -> real # of CNs inside this range

0-5k -> 1614 CNs

5k-10k -> 1667 CNs

10k-15k -> 1626 CNs

15k-20k -> 1356 CNs

20k-25k -> 965 CNs

25k-30k -> 945 CNs

... it is decreasing. Good news for high CNs. The further we go, the more CNs is needed to issue the same amount of visas.

I wonder how many CNs are in the last 5k range

Any guess why the real # of CNs is decreasing if we go to high CNs? What is the idea of this? Why is it so?

I guess after the heavy weight countries start maxing out the density get lesser !

And also I think kcc schedules the majority in the first 10 months on the fiscal year !

[TheNewBetterBonio 0]

Thanks for the links. I cannot take this as statistical data (not enough data to be statisticaly revelant), but...

...but it might be true what you are writing because if we would take the CNs from DV2014 that we know, and divide it to 5k ranges than it looks like this:

range of CNs (example: 0-5k means EU0 - EU5000) -> real # of CNs inside this range

0-5k -> 1614 CNs

5k-10k -> 1667 CNs

10k-15k -> 1626 CNs

15k-20k -> 1356 CNs

20k-25k -> 965 CNs

25k-30k -> 945 CNs

... it is decreasing. Good news for high CNs. The further we go, the more CNs is needed to issue the same amount of visas.

I wonder how many CNs are in the last 5k range

Any guess why the real # of CNs is decreasing if we go to high CNs? What is the idea of this? Why is it so?

I would say that most of the folks are not really prepared for an interview (in opposite to us miserable people who scans those forums for months or even years ), so once they start the process, it's already late - often too late. Of course the further in the fiscal year the harder to get everything ready if you start it up in a "last minute" manner (think about financial support for example, you have to prepare for that months before, by accumulating savings or else getting sponsor). From the other hand lower numbers have months for everything so theirs success / response rate must be higher.

[szym 2]

I guess after the heavy weight countries start maxing out the density get lesser !

And also I think kcc schedules the majority in the first 10 months on the fiscal year !

I don't think so, because all CNs are assigned before the first interview.

So the density is also known before first interview. The density of CNs does not depend on interiew or visa issuance process.

[vladek15425 7]

I don't think so, because all CNs are assigned before the first interview.

So the density is also known before first interview. The density of CNs does not depend on interiew or visa issuance process.

Check on the old forum axiom sloner Topic, you will find all my fantasy theories

As well as all our agreement and disagreements, I believe me and my forum mate from dv14 and previous DVs went through all the dv aspects...

Hoepfully you will find sone ''valuable'' answers

Check for the topic for those who likes to argue stats of britsimon too.