The US and EU have options to outmanoeuvre Russia

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By sending troops across Ukraine’s borders, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, aims to weaken and destabilise the struggling new government in Kiev and coerce it to stay within Moscow’s orbit. Thus begins the opening act of a dangerous crisis that risks dividing Ukraine along ethnic and geographic lines. It is the most serious threat to Europe’s security since the end of the cold war.

America and Europe have few real tools to limit Mr Putin’s troop movements and prevent him from destabilising the rest of a poor, divided and weak Ukraine. That leaves only one real option: to follow a persistent diplomatic strategy to outmanoeuvre Mr Putin in a lengthy struggle over Ukraine.

Nato has no legal security obligations to Ukraine in this crisis. A US and European military counterpunch to Mr Putin’s Crimean land grab would risk a major continental war among nuclear powers. That is not going to happen. The west will not fight Mr Putin for Ukraine and he knows it. That is why, in part, he felt emboldened to act. Americans and Europeans must therefore go on the offensive in another way – by raising the costs to Mr Putin for his reckless actions.

First, they can start by assembling a chorus of global leaders to denounce Mr Putin for breaking Europe’s long peace since the end of the cold war. Public criticism, of course, will not change Mr Putin’s course. But it could begin to isolate him and cost Russia some of the soft power strength it gained from the Sochi Winter Olympics. That is important to Mr Putin.

Mr Obama has already spoken out. Other leaders, led by Germany’s Angela Merkel, and from India, Brazil, Japan and South Korea, should now follow to defend the most sacrosanct principle of the international system: the inviolability of Ukraine’s borders, territorial integrity and a country’s right to choose its own future.

Second, the US and Nato must begin to sanction and repudiate Mr Putin. The White House has all but said Mr Obama will not attend June’s Sochi Goup of Eight Summit. The other leaders should announce they will also boycott. In addition, they should expel Russia permanently from the group.

Third, the US can take further concrete measures on its own. Washington can suspend negotiations on agreements important to Mr Putin such as the Bilateral Investment Treaty. In addition, Mr Obama should encourage Congress to enact additional sanctions on Russian leaders under the Magnitsky Act, and to look for other ways to end a business-as-usual attitude with the Russian Federation. The EU can suspend some of its own economic agreements with Russia to hit Mr Putin where it will really hurt.

Fourth, the US and Europe need to act quickly to provide concrete support to the shaky new government in Kiev. Together, they should announce an economic assistance package backed by a long-term IMF agreement to support the nearly bankrupt Ukrainian economy.

They might consider a creative way to demonstrate that support – a visit to Kiev by the foreign ministers of the US, Poland, Germany, the UK and France to stand with the new Ukrainian leaders. They should also give them some frank advice: go out of your way to signal acceptance and inclusiveness to the millions of ethnic Russians who were alienated by the revolution in Kiev. Do not give Mr Putin a rationale for further military adventures in Ukraine’s east.

Fifth and finally, Nato should reaffirm publicly its core promise to all members, the Article V pledge of mutual defence in a crisis. Mr Obama should call an emergency meeting of Nato leaders to reassure, in particular, the 10 new members from central Europe who were not so long ago part of the Warsaw Pact or the USSR itself. Nato, if necessary, should build up the collective defence of these countries. Nato, after all, is the only reason Moscow has not set its sights on Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in particular.

Mr Putin chose this fight on ground familiar and advantageous to him. He won round one and is still on the move. But it is not clear if even he knows how the crisis may end. And his blunt use of force will not play well with the majority of Ukrainians or the world beyond.

The struggle for Ukraine is shaping up to be the kind of contest for power with the Russians that cold war US presidents managed so effectively. Advantage in such a long, twisting contest should shift, in the end, to the stronger, more mature and democratic governments. Mr Putin’s Russia is not among them.

The writer is professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School and former undersecretary of state

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8f27da9c-a1f0-11e3-87f6-00144feab7de.html

[spookyturtle 9,466]

We could send Gary over.

[We Keep Receipts 9,238]

We could send Gary over.

Speaking of which, had anyone heard from him? SInce this broke, he's been MIA. No love lost between us, but I wouldn't wish harm on anyone here.

[spookyturtle 9,466]

Speaking of which, had anyone heard from him? SInce this broke, he's been MIA. No love lost between us, but I wouldn't wish harm on anyone here.

I haven't seen him post for a while, but I haven't been around much for the past week or so either. He was home from his Russian vacation back in January, so I don't think he's in the hot spot. He's probably busy and doesn't have time to waste on us rumpswabs.

[We Keep Receipts 9,238]

I haven't seen him post for a while, but I haven't been around much for the past week or so either. He was home from his Russian vacation back in January, so I don't think he's in the hot spot. He's probably busy and doesn't have time to waste on us rumpswabs.

Rumpswabs? I feel like you're trying to be racist with me spooky. In fact, I find you name to be racist. Reported

[spookyturtle 9,466]

Rumpswabs? I feel like you're trying to be racist with me spooky. In fact, I find you name to be racist. Reported

Since this is the new, family friendly VJ, my name may be a TOS violation. Scary reptiles could be harmful to people here. I believe the term rumpswabs was first used here by the G man, but don't quote me on it. The Monday group will be able to provide more accurate information, but they aren't here today because they only post when they are getting paid to do something else.

[GandD 5,966]

Good article. Hopefully we have something brewing. We look pretty rediculous right now IMO.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

We could send Gary over.

You won't get him away from those sunny Ankara beaches.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Good article. Hopefully we have something brewing. We look pretty rediculous right now IMO.

Why? Because we don't have hotheads making hasty, badly calculated moves to match those made by Putin? The game's chess, not checkers. I, for one, am glad that we have leaders both in Europe and here in the US that are deliberate and maintain control in what could otherwise be an even worse situation.

[GandD 5,966]

Why? Because we don't have hotheads making hasty, badly calculated moves to match those made by Putin? The game's chess, not checkers. I, for one, am glad that we have leaders both in Europe and here in the US that are deliberate and maintain control in what could otherwise be an even worse situation.

Our position as it sits seems to be rather bad in this situation. Obviously we should avoid war here. I said I hope we have something going on below the surface. Something to make Putin pay one way or another for his clear transgressions. But we'll prob have to depend on some sort of solidarity in Europe which is pretty much an exercise in futility.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Our position as it sits seems to be rather bad in this situation. Obviously we should avoid war here. I said I hope we have something going on below the surface. Something to make Putin pay one way or another for his clear transgressions. But we'll prob have to depend on some sort of solidarity in Europe which is pretty much an exercise in futility.

I'm not convinced that's true. The latter part, that is.

[GandD 5,966]

I'm not convinced that's true. The latter part, that is.

That's a worry of mine with this one. Don't want to get stuck holding the baton after Europe pu$$es.

[The Nature Boy 4,224]

We could send Gary over.

I have been waiting on him to weigh in on this