2012 - GOP primary should be a lot of fun

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Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor, is among the more natural populist politicians of our time, frequently critiquing elites in the press, the Democratic Party, and the Republican establishment. It is one of the reasons — along with her working-class background and the sense of authenticity that she can often convey — that she is so popular with some voters.

One potential problem for Ms. Palin, however, is that plenty of well-to-do and well-educated voters — those whom we might think of as belonging to the elite — will be participating in the Republican primaries.

Three recent surveys of Republican primary voters suggest significant divides in support for Ms. Palin based on the educational attainment of the voter. A poll released this morning by Marist College show Ms. Palin as the first choice of 17 percent of Republicans who have not graduated from college, giving her a slight lead among that group. But her support is just 7 percent among Republican college graduates, which placed her fifth behind Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingirch and Chris Christie.

A Quinnipiac poll, likewise, finds Ms. Palin with the support of 22 percent of Republicans who have not graduated from college, but of 10 percent of those who have. A CNN poll, meanwhile — using a slightly different criterion that focuses on whether voters attended college, whether or not they graduated from it — finds Ms. Palin drawing 20 percent of Republican voters who haven’t attended college, but only 9 percent of those who have.

The candidate whose numbers move in an opposite direction from Ms. Palin is Mitt Romney. On average over the three surveys, he had the support of 15 percent of “no college” voters, but 25 percent of Republicans with higher levels of educational attainment. (Averages for each of the Republican contenders are contained in the graphic below.)

It is possible that some of these differences have to do with socioeconomic status, instead of or in addition to educational attainment. (The two variables are strongly correlated and hard to disentangle from summary-level data.) The Marist poll, for instance, found Ms. Palin with the support of 20 percent of Republicans whose households make $50,000 or less per year, versus 10 percent of those making $50,000 or more, while the CNN poll also found Ms. Palin performing about twice as well among lower-income voters than higher-income ones.

A candidate, of course, does not need to lead among all demographic groups in order to win the primary: Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton in 2008 despite trailing her among many key groups, like whites, women, and no-college voters. And if Ms. Palin’s numbers some demonstrate weakness among higher-attaining Republicans, her support among those with lower socioeconomic status is also a strength.

Nevertheless, all else being equal, a candidate would usually prefer to do better among higher-status voters, because they vote more reliably in Presidential primaries. According to exit polls in 2008, for instance, the fraction of Republican primary voters who make at least $50,000 per year was 75 percent in New Hampshire, 74 percent in Nevada and Texas, 72 percent in California and South Carolina, and 71 percent in Florida. It was somewhat lower, between 62 and 68 percent, in three key Midwestern states — Iowa, Michigan and Ohio — in which Ms. Palin will probably have to perform well to have a realistic shot at winning the nomination.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/24/palin-support-limited-among-wealthy-college-educated-republicans/

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Well, Sarah just needs to work on dumbing down the GOP and the nomination will be hers.

Palin/O'Donnell 2012!

Edited November 27, 2010 by Mr. Big Dog

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Huckabee.

[TBoneTX 45,537]

Palin/O'Donnell 2012!

Very appealing, si man.

Note how, in the bar graph, "Gingirch" is mispelt, see mann.

[웃 910]

Romney will be our next president.

[TBoneTX 45,537]

Romney will be our next president.

An establishment RINO... who brought pre-Obamacare to Massachusetts.

[SuperDuper! 230]

Romney will be our next president.

No he can't: He's Mormon. Thought you knew!

[scandal 951]

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/july-dec10/shieldsbrooks_11-26.html

DAVID BROOKS:

You know, the question with Palin has always been, is she on the government track or is she on the media track? Where is her career going? And, in the last six months, she's headed a little more toward the governing track, suggested a little more that she wants to run for president.

I still fundamentally think she's on the media track, wants to be a major media/political activist player, but will not run and will certainly not get the nomination. I base that on the fact that, to run for office, you have actually got to care about government, and those people don't quit the governorship in the middle of your first term.

Second, she couldn't even beat a write-in candidate in her own home state. She couldn't beat Lisa Murkowski. That doesn't suggest that she has tremendous political legs, even in her home -- own home state.

And, then, when you look at her statements, the tweets, all the stuff that comes out of camp Palin, it has to do with the media or her slashing back at the media for this or that insult, not so much about government. So, I still think she is mostly a media player.

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Robert Reich had this to say on his blog:

Republican leaders don’t believe it. “If she wanted the Republican nomination she’d be working on the inside,” one influential Republican told me a few days ago. “She’d be building relationships with Republican Senators and representatives, governors, and state party officials. She’d be smoothing the feathers she ruffled by backing Tea Party candidates. She’d be huddled with GOP kingmakers.” When I suggested she has a different strategy, the influential Republican smiled knowingly. “That’s how it’s done – how McCain, Bush, and everyone has done it. That’s the only way to do it. But all she really wants is celebrity.”

The Republican establishment doesn’t get it. Celebrity is part of The Palin Strategy – as is avoiding the insider game. She doesn’t want to do what Huckabee, Pawlenty, Gingrich, or Romney have to do. She has an outside game.

...

Palin’s game plan is directly related to America’ white working class, and the economy it faces – and the economy it’s likely to continue to experience for years.

...

The white working class has not benefitted from the recent rise in corporate profits and stock prices. To the contrary, both have been fueled by foreign sales of goods made abroad and by labor-saving technologies that have allowed American companies to do more with fewer workers here at home. 

Joblessness among the white working class is far higher than the 9.6 percent average for the nation. While the unemployment rate among college grads (most of whom are professionals or managers) is around 5 percent, the average unemployment rate for people with only a high school degree or less (blue-collar, pink-collar, clerical) is almost 20 percent.

All of this is spawning a new and more virulent politics of anger in the nation’s white working class, stoked by Republicans – anger against immigrants, blacks, gays, intellectuals, and international bankers.

According to the right-wing narrative, the calamity that’s befallen the white working class is due to the global and intellectual elites who run the mainstream media, direct the government, dispense benefits to the undeserving, and dominate popular culture.

[웃 910]

Palin will continue to do exactly what she is doing because she is raking in 10s of millions. She'll have 100 mil racked up before the media stops giving her attention.

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She'll have 100 mil racked up before the media stops giving her attention.

And then she will cream Romney. They say she eats Mormon geeks for breakfast.

[scandal 951]

The Republican establishment doesn’t get it. Celebrity is part of The Palin Strategy – as is avoiding the insider game. She doesn’t want to do what Huckabee, Pawlenty, Gingrich, or Romney have to do. She has an outside game.

...

Palin’s game plan is directly related to America’ white working class, and the economy it faces – and the economy it’s likely to continue to experience for years.

Yeah, but that's all "issues". And nobody wins a primary campaign with (only) an issue. Don't get me wrong, having a platform is important. But far more important is a grassroots campaign organization. Volunteers to knock on doors in snowy Iowa winters, collect signatures, and organize speaking tours through church basements and high school gyms. If she stays outside the mainstream party she has none of that organizational strength.

[SuperDuper! 230]

Palin will continue to do exactly what she is doing because she is raking in 10s of millions. She'll have 100 mil racked up before the media stops giving her attention.

Let's hope so. That will be totally awesome entertainment!

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Yeah, but that's all "issues". And nobody wins a primary campaign with (only) an issue. Don't get me wrong, having a platform is important. But far more important is a grassroots campaign organization. Volunteers to knock on doors in snowy Iowa winters, collect signatures, and organize speaking tours through church basements and high school gyms. If she stays outside the mainstream party she has none of that organizational strength.

She is making bank right now. She can buy herself an organization.

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Awesome compilation!