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Copenhagen failure could cost US$1 trillion

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By Daniel Cressey

The failure of the Copenhagen climate talks to culminate in an agreement could cost the world "at least $1 trillion", according to this year's flagship report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The World Energy Outlook suggests that unambitious pledges made at last year's United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change conference in Copenhagen will mean that much tougher action is needed after 2020 if the world is to meet the goal of limiting atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) to 450 parts per million (p.p.m.). But as a result of foot-dragging before that, additional spending required on low-carbon technologies will amount to around US$1 trillion by 2030, says the agency -- an intergovernmental body advising 28 nations, including the United States and Japan, on energy policy.

"While still achievable, the 450 p.p.m. scenario is now much more difficult to obtain," Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the IEA, told reporters in London. "It is very, very, very difficult."

The World Energy Outlook forecasts future energy demand and costs every year. Previous reports have looked at two scenarios: a 'current policies' scenario extrapolating from governments' existing positions and the '450 scenario', in which the 450 p.p.m. CO2 levels would limit global temperature to a 2°C rise above pre-industrial levels as committed to at Copenhagen.

But as climate policies will not remain the same as they are now and a 2°C target is seen by some as rather ambitious, this year's report comes with a new scenario. The 'new policies' scenario lies somewhere between the two and takes account of governments' proposed actions.

Under current policies, energy demand will increase by 1.4% per year through to 2035. Under new policies this drops to 1.2%. Under the 450 scenario, demand increases just 0.7% per year.

Money matters

In this year's 450 scenario, spending on low-carbon technology necessary to keep to the 2°C target as increased by $1 trillion compared with last year's estimates, from $10.6 trillion to $11.6 trillion. The cost to global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2030 of sticking to this limit has increased from 0.9% in last year's estimate to 1.6% in this year's. The IEA estimates annual GDP growth at 3.2% per year in its models.

In terms of global demand, preliminary data from 2009 suggest that China overtook the United States to become the largest user of energy, and China drives much of the change predicted by the IEA. However, even after years of growth to 2035, China will still use less energy per person than countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), suggests the agency.

Chinese growth will push demand for fuels, contributing 36% to predicted growth in global energy use.

China is also on its way to becoming a global leader in renewable energies, although most of these technologies will require ongoing government subsidies, says the agency's chief economist Fatih Birol.

Birol says subsidies for fossil fuels should be phased out in favour of support for renewables. "Renewable energies are becoming a mainstream fuel but in most cases they need support to compete with other fuels," he says.

This is especially important as the world experiences an ongoing gas glut, which is a lower CO2-emitting fuel than coal but can also compete with and push out renewable energy. Also on the rise are 'unconventional oil' sources such as Canada's oil sands or bitumen deposits.

Amid all this talk of energy demand, the IEA also emphasises another of its estimates: 1.4 billion people across the world lack any access to electricity and 2.7 billion still use wood or other biomass to cook. While governments argue over energy policy, a huge proportion of the world population is still stuck in energy poverty.

http://www.scientifi...ure-could-cost-

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Filed: K-1 Visa Country: Lesotho
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It isn't worth the money. Doing nothing is a better choice. The sky is falling predictions are not coming true and the scare mongers are just amping up the volume because they know they have lost.

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Filed: Country: Philippines
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It isn't worth the money. Doing nothing is a better choice. The sky is falling predictions are not coming true and the scare mongers are just amping up the volume because they know they have lost.

Say what? These are energy analysts...your logic fail is strong today.

The annual World Energy Outlook [1] is the International Energy Agency [2]'s flagship publication and it is widely recognised as the most authoritative energy source for global energy projections and analysis. It represents the leading source for medium to long-term energy market projections, extensive statistics, analysis and advice for both governments and the energy business. It is produced by the Office of the Chief Economist, under the direction of Dr. Fatih Birol.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Energy_Outlook

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Say what? These are energy analysts...your logic fail is strong today.

The annual World Energy Outlook [1] is the International Energy Agency [2]'s flagship publication and it is widely recognised as the most authoritative energy source for global energy projections and analysis. It represents the leading source for medium to long-term energy market projections, extensive statistics, analysis and advice for both governments and the energy business. It is produced by the Office of the Chief Economist, under the direction of Dr. Fatih Birol.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Energy_Outlook

It isn't worth the effort. Do not spend any money to try and reduce CO2. It is wasted effort. Spending money to become more efficent is worth it but that isn't what this story is about. It is about throwing away trillions of dollars to try and reduce something that does not need reducing. Your logic is total fail.

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It isn't worth the effort. Do not spend any money to try and reduce CO2. It is wasted effort. Spending money to become more efficent is worth it but that isn't what this story is about. It is about throwing away trillions of dollars to try and reduce something that does not need reducing. Your logic is total fail.

Ah, ok. So your advice is much more valuable than a bunch of energy analysts? I'll make note of it.

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Filed: AOS (pnd) Country: Canada
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Do more with nuclear power (as should have been done in the past 30 years), let the solar panel market take off when prices start coming down, and you'll take care of a lot of the 'alleged' problem. Either way, we can all say both of those are good things (except for the anti-nuclear nuts)....

Outside of that, the lame duck argument for the past century and a half on global warming is old and tired out..... You'd think after 150 years of beating a dead horse, people would give up on this man-made global warming #######....

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Ah, ok. So your advice is much more valuable than a bunch of energy analysts? I'll make note of it.

Your still not getting it, as usual. The energy analysts are talking about spending trillions on reducing CO2. That is wasted effort. We don't need to reduce CO2. You also need to understand that these very same energy analysts are making money out of the so called "crisis". It is in their best financial interests to make as much noise as they can. To bad they lost. The money is drying up as the world wakes up to the fact it was all a big lie. The world isn't getting warmer. There is no crisis.

The_global_temperature_chart-545x409.jpg

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According to whom?

vegetation.

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02/07/2011 - Medical!

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Anyone that isn't a GW scare monger like yourself. It is a waste of time to reduce something that isn't effecting a darn thing. The earth isn't getting warmer.

Oh yes. All those bodies of science that study climate are all in cahoots with one another and only level-headed people such as yourself can see through their phony baloney.

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Anyone that isn't a GW scare monger like yourself. It is a waste of time to reduce something that isn't effecting a darn thing. The earth isn't getting warmer.

The_global_temperature_chart-545x409.jpg

you ever notice that the earf got warmer during the Clinton/Lewinsky thing...... Must have been putting out some serious heat from those cigars. :whistle:

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The Great Canadian to Texas Transfer Timeline:

2/22/2010 - I-129F Packet Mailed

2/24/2010 - Packet Delivered to VSC

2/26/2010 - VSC Cashed Filing Fee

3/04/2010 - NOA1 Received!

8/14/2010 - Touched!

10/04/2010 - NOA2 Received!

10/25/2010 - Packet 3 Received!

02/07/2011 - Medical!

03/15/2011 - Interview in Montreal! - Approved!!!

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Oh yes. All those bodies of science that study climate are all in cahoots with one another and only level-headed people such as yourself can see through their phony baloney.

Yeah, keep telling yourself that. All over the world people are waking up to the huge fraud of GW. No matter, Cap and Tax is dead and the new congress will defund any attempt by the EPA to regulate CO2. You lost, go find a new crisis to whine about.

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