The Democratic Agenda

[one...two...tree 2,762]

The vast majority of opposition to health care and allowing gays to serve openly in the military is coming from people who already say there's no chance they'll vote Democratic this fall. That's an indication of minimal fallout for Congressional Democrats by acting on these issues.

37% of Americans say they will definitely not vote Democratic for Congress this year. 34% say they definitely will and that leaves roughly 30% of the country up for grabs.

Right now 50% of voters say they oppose President Obama's health care plan to just 39% in support. Digging a little deeper on those numbers though 64% of respondents planning or open to voting Democratic this fall support it with only 22% opposed. The overall numbers are negative only because of 94/1 opposition among folks who have said there is no way they'll vote Democratic this fall.

It's a similar story when it comes to the prospect of repealing 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell.' Over 54% of voters support it with 37% opposed. But among the voters Democrats need to make happy- the ones planning to or considering voting for them this year- there is 72/24 support for letting gays and lesbians serve openly in the military. The total numbers are brought down only because of 59/25 opposition with folks who will never vote for them anyway.

Congressional Democrats really need to decide if they're going to let their agenda be dictated by voters who won't support them no matter what they do. These numbers provide pretty clear evidence that most of the voters opposed to health care and repeal of DADT will not consider voting Democratic even if the party decides not to move on those issues.

Full results here

link

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

POSTED BY TOM JENSEN AT 10:30 AM

0 COMMENTS:

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Feeling left out, my blue dog friend?

[scandal 951]

The vast majority of opposition to health care and allowing gays to serve openly in the military is coming from people who already say there's no chance they'll vote Democratic this fall. That's an indication of minimal fallout for Congressional Democrats by acting on these issues.

37% of Americans say they will definitely not vote Democratic for Congress this year. 34% say they definitely will and that leaves roughly 30% of the country up for grabs.

Right now 50% of voters say they oppose President Obama's health care plan to just 39% in support. Digging a little deeper on those numbers though 64% of respondents planning or open to voting Democratic this fall support it with only 22% opposed. The overall numbers are negative only because of 94/1 opposition among folks who have said there is no way they'll vote Democratic this fall.

It's a similar story when it comes to the prospect of repealing 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell.' Over 54% of voters support it with 37% opposed. But among the voters Democrats need to make happy- the ones planning to or considering voting for them this year- there is 72/24 support for letting gays and lesbians serve openly in the military. The total numbers are brought down only because of 59/25 opposition with folks who will never vote for them anyway.

Congressional Democrats really need to decide if they're going to let their agenda be dictated by voters who won't support them no matter what they do. These numbers provide pretty clear evidence that most of the voters opposed to health care and repeal of DADT will not consider voting Democratic even if the party decides not to move on those issues.

Steve,

In general I would agree with the thrust of this - i.e. Democrats should get a spine, grow some nads, and legislate as though they're a majority party with a mandate to govern. Either that, or forfeit that mandate and be deservedly tossed out for not governing.

However... I think there are other issues at play. I wonder how solid these numbers really are:

37% of Americans say they will definitely not vote Democratic for Congress this year. 34% say they definitely will and that leaves roughly 30% of the country up for grabs.

Firstly, I think a lot of voters are focused on economic matters and jobs, and want to see Congress attending to that, and nothing but.

Secondly, there remains an incredibly strong anti-incumbent sentiment fueled by the sense that Washington is hopelessly incompetent and needs a serious spring-cleaning. That's going to hit both parties of course, but it means that polling by "are you going to vote Democrat this year?" will be skewed by whether the responder's incumbent Congresscritter is a Republican or a Democrat. The whole margin of error on such a poll is going to be much wider as a result.

Thirdly, politics tends to be local in midterm congressional races. I can tell you that I, as a pretty solid Democrat, will seriously look at the Republican running for IL Senate this year (Mark Kirk) because I really don't like what I'm reading and hearing about the Democrat Alexi Giannoulias. It's going to be an open seat, so no matter what Congress does or doesn't do this year on health care or DADT or any other issue won't influence my vote in November. Only the campaigning of the candidates will.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Steve,

In general I would agree with the thrust of this - i.e. Democrats should get a spine, grow some nads, and legislate as though they're a majority party with a mandate to govern. Either that, or forfeit that mandate and be deservedly tossed out for not governing.

However... I think there are other issues at play. I wonder how solid these numbers really are:

37% of Americans say they will definitely not vote Democratic for Congress this year. 34% say they definitely will and that leaves roughly 30% of the country up for grabs.

Firstly, I think a lot of voters are focused on economic matters and jobs, and want to see Congress attending to that, and nothing but.

Secondly, there remains an incredibly strong anti-incumbent sentiment fueled by the sense that Washington is hopelessly incompetent and needs a serious spring-cleaning. That's going to hit both parties of course, but it means that polling by "are you going to vote Democrat this year?" will be skewed by whether the responder's incumbent Congresscritter is a Republican or a Democrat. The whole margin of error on such a poll is going to be much wider as a result.

Thirdly, politics tends to be local in midterm congressional races. I can tell you that I, as a pretty solid Democrat, will seriously look at the Republican running for IL Senate this year (Mark Kirk) because I really don't like what I'm reading and hearing about the Democrat Alexi Giannoulias. It's going to be an open seat, so no matter what Congress does or doesn't do this year on health care or DADT or any other issue won't influence my vote in November. Only the campaigning of the candidates will.

I agree with your assessment. I care less about who is in Washington as long as they are moving this country forward. The Right Wing of the Republican Party are kidding themselves if they think the American voter has had a long enough break from their policies to give them another shot.

[Pooky 3,930]

The vast majority of opposition to health care and allowing gays to serve openly in the military is coming from people who already say there's no chance they'll vote Democratic this fall. That's an indication of minimal fallout for Congressional Democrats by acting on these issues.

37% of Americans say they will definitely not vote Democratic for Congress this year. 34% say they definitely will and that leaves roughly 30% of the country up for grabs.

Right now 50% of voters say they oppose President Obama's health care plan to just 39% in support. Digging a little deeper on those numbers though 64% of respondents planning or open to voting Democratic this fall support it with only 22% opposed. The overall numbers are negative only because of 94/1 opposition among folks who have said there is no way they'll vote Democratic this fall.

It's a similar story when it comes to the prospect of repealing 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell.' Over 54% of voters support it with 37% opposed. But among the voters Democrats need to make happy- the ones planning to or considering voting for them this year- there is 72/24 support for letting gays and lesbians serve openly in the military. The total numbers are brought down only because of 59/25 opposition with folks who will never vote for them anyway.

Congressional Democrats really need to decide if they're going to let their agenda be dictated by voters who won't support them no matter what they do. These numbers provide pretty clear evidence that most of the voters opposed to health care and repeal of DADT will not consider voting Democratic even if the party decides not to move on those issues.

link

Just because the majority of people who oppose healthcare as it currently stands would not vote Democrat next time around should not give the Democrats carte blanche to push through legislation that is fundamentally flawed. What there is now is a travesty of a Bill that does nowhere near enough good to outweigh the payoffs, buy-offs, sweetheart deals and vote-buying that are the public face of the "healthcare" reform Bill.

The government of this country is elected to govern on behalf of the people. All of the people. Not just those who voted for them. All of them. Regardless of the colour of the opposition, to pass this "healthcare" bill in spite of the weight of public opinion should run counter to everything this country's constitution stands for.

Any move to pass the bill now would inevitably be seen as a "legacy" issue, to say that the Obama administration got "healthcare" through Congress and onto the books. As such, it would be doomed to failure as soon as control of Congress passed to the Republican'ts, as they would strangle every provision they could, as soon as they could.

All of which short-changes the very people this Bill should be helping but isn't - the American people. Passing what is out there now will condemn the Democrats to a crushing reversal this November, worse than if they do the smart thing and scrap the mess here and now. It will also make it immeasurably more difficult for a future administration to pass the bill this country needs.

Just because they have nothing more to lose is not a good enough reason.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Steve,

In general I would agree with the thrust of this - i.e. Democrats should get a spine, grow some nads, and legislate as though they're a majority party with a mandate to govern. Either that, or forfeit that mandate and be deservedly tossed out for not governing.

However... I think there are other issues at play. I wonder how solid these numbers really are:

37% of Americans say they will definitely not vote Democratic for Congress this year. 34% say they definitely will and that leaves roughly 30% of the country up for grabs.

Firstly, I think a lot of voters are focused on economic matters and jobs, and want to see Congress attending to that, and nothing but.

Secondly, there remains an incredibly strong anti-incumbent sentiment fueled by the sense that Washington is hopelessly incompetent and needs a serious spring-cleaning. That's going to hit both parties of course, but it means that polling by "are you going to vote Democrat this year?" will be skewed by whether the responder's incumbent Congresscritter is a Republican or a Democrat. The whole margin of error on such a poll is going to be much wider as a result.

Thirdly, politics tends to be local in midterm congressional races. I can tell you that I, as a pretty solid Democrat, will seriously look at the Republican running for IL Senate this year (Mark Kirk) because I really don't like what I'm reading and hearing about the Democrat Alexi Giannoulias. It's going to be an open seat, so no matter what Congress does or doesn't do this year on health care or DADT or any other issue won't influence my vote in November. Only the campaigning of the candidates will.

It's from a ranting liberal. The numbers come out of his ####.