The 28 Worst Market Reactions to Newly Elected Presidents

[웃 910]

Not many people thought that running the country was going to be an easy job for President Obama, and based on the Dow's returns since election day, the market doesn't think so either. Below we highlight the performance of the Dow this many days past election day for all Presidential elections since 1900. As shown, the Dow's decline of 17.78% since Obama's election 93 days ago is the index's biggest drop following any election in the last 108 years.

But just to be fair, January was the worst month for I think all U.S. market indexes in history. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its highest point for January on 01/02/2009 at 9,035 points which was only about 6% off. Although after January came through we now sit just above 8,000 points.

A lot has to do with the volatility during this horrendous earnings season (which is practically over). Also, Geitner is to announce the details to the Bank Rescue Plan on Monday which should send the markets much higher all next week. I'm invested in this market too so I'm hoping the DJIA will be back up to 9,000 sometime this month.

...Thought the data was pretty interesting. What do you guys think about the economy and where we are headed?

[Danno 1,228]

Soon we will need more than "Hope".... we'll need "Faith".

[Dan J 277]

Not many people thought that running the country was going to be an easy job for President Obama, and based on the Dow's returns since election day, the market doesn't think so either. Below we highlight the performance of the Dow this many days past election day for all Presidential elections since 1900. As shown, the Dow's decline of 17.78% since Obama's election 93 days ago is the index's biggest drop following any election in the last 108 years.

But just to be fair, January was the worst month for I think all U.S. market indexes in history. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its highest point for January on 01/02/2009 at 9,035 points which was only about 6% off. Although after January came through we now sit just above 8,000 points.

A lot has to do with the volatility during this horrendous earnings season (which is practically over). Also, Geitner is to announce the details to the Bank Rescue Plan on Monday which should send the markets much higher all next week. I'm invested in this market too so I'm hoping the DJIA will be back up to 9,000 sometime this month.

...Thought the data was pretty interesting. What do you guys think about the economy and where we are headed?

Its pretty much pointless. More interesting data would be how markets change from the start of a term to the end.

[Teacher Mark 53]

Its pretty much pointless. More interesting data would be how markets change from the start of a term to the end.

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2008/07/

Edited February 6, 2009 by Joe Six-Pack

[NickD 203]

Another view is that our stock market and banks serve only as parasites on our industries where it's common for the stock holders to make more money than the labor force within a corporation.

[웃 910]

It's actually not the 28 worst market reactions. It is all 28 post-election market reactions since 1900 through 93 days. I agree that it is best to judge a president after a full term. Obama has only been in office (17 days?).

In regards to Clinton holding the top spot for market performance. I don't think it had much to do with his policies. Anyone could have gotten the market to skyrocket with that type of technology explosion. Look at the technology change from 1994 to 2000. I'm too young to remember vividly, but I know we went from dial-up internet (lol) to cable modems. People were just starting to get computers in 1994. I remember ours was so bulky, it took forever to restart, had a 40 foot telephone cord going all over the basement to reach the phone jack, it was noisy when I tried to sign on the internet, I always got busy signals, it blocked the main phone line, I didn't know what to do on the internet besides go onto AOL chat, and I was always having problems with it and calling Gateway's free customer service number. That was how I remember 1994-1995 when I was 10-11 years old. I'm pretty sure that I used a typewriter back then to do my homework!!!!!!

Edited February 6, 2009 by Confucian

[웃 910]

It's actually not the 28 worst market reactions. It is all 28 post-election market reactions since 1900 through 93 days. I agree that it is best to judge a president after a full term. Obama has only been in office (17 days?).

In regards to Clinton holding the top spot for market performance. I don't think it had much to do with his policies. Anyone could have gotten the market to skyrocket with that type of technology explosion. Look at the technology change from 1994 1992 to 2000. I'm too young to remember vividly, but I know we went from dial-up internet (lol) to cable modems. People were just starting to get computers in 1994. I remember ours was so bulky, it took forever to restart, had a 40 foot telephone cord going all over the basement to reach the phone jack, it was noisy when I tried to sign on the internet, I always got busy signals, it blocked the main phone line, I didn't know what to do on the internet besides go onto AOL chat, and I was always having problems with it and calling Gateway's free customer service number. That was how I remember 1994-1995 when I was 10-11 years old. I'm pretty sure that I used a typewriter back then to do my homework!!!!!!

Surprised nobody caught me there. 1992-2000, not 1994!!

[Jasman0717 9]

Hum, not sure I appreciate the stats. How much has the market dropped in the last year? Surely that can't be blamed on Obama. I blame it on the Sopranos

[웃 910]

Hum, not sure I appreciate the stats. How much has the market dropped in the last year? Surely that can't be blamed on Obama. I blame it on the Sopranos

Where was everybody praising the Bush administration in October of 2007 when the Dow was closing above 14,000 points, record and historic all-time highs??? They were still bashing his brains out. I remember when this mess started to develop in September 2008...I was thinking to myself, there are all these "Blame everything on Bush" haters when 11 months prior we were at HISTORIC levels.

The Dow will have to climb a little over 70% to break Bush's extraordinary all-time high!!!!

[웃 910]

Hum, not sure I appreciate the stats. How much has the market dropped in the last year? Surely that can't be blamed on Obama. I blame it on the Sopranos

Where was everybody praising the Bush administration in October of 2007 when the Dow was closing above 14,000 points, record and historic all-time highs??? They were still bashing his brains out. I remember when this mess started to develop in September 2008...I was thinking to myself, there are all these "Blame everything on Bush" haters when 11 months prior we were at HISTORIC levels.

The Dow will have to climb a little over 70% to break Bush's extraordinary all-time high!!!!

Well....The way I feel right now is that there is a 30-40% chance Obama and Pelosi will lead us into the Great Depression, Part 2. Soon I will know exactly what Obama meant when he talked about change because at this rate; it won't be long before I am begging for it on a street corner.

Who knows what will happen in his term, but I can guarantee one thing: Obama will hold the record for absolute worst market reaction from the day he was elected through 100 days for at least the next century: no future president will ever come remotely close.

Bye now, I have to run and take my pop cans to the grocery store and use the Coinstar machine.

Edited February 17, 2009 by Confucian

[Jasman0717 9]

I am so thankful I moved all my investments out of the stock market to stable value last year

[Danno 1,228]

Politics aside, it is hard to believe our whole economy is being guided by a guy who has never owned or even managed a small business.

[Danno 1,228]

I am so thankful I moved all my investments out of the stock market to stable value last year

Rub it in dude

Actually, I am glad for you.

What was it exactly that prompted you to do that?

[alienlovechild 75]

People were just starting to get computers in 1994. I remember ours was so bulky, it took forever to restart, had a 40 foot telephone cord going all over the basement to reach the phone jack, it was noisy when I tried to sign on the internet, I always got busy signals, it blocked the main phone line, I didn't know what to do on the internet besides go onto AOL chat, and I was always having problems with it and calling Gateway's free customer service number. That was how I remember 1994-1995 when I was 10-11 years old. I'm pretty sure that I used a typewriter back then to do my homework!!!!!!

People had computers long before 1994. A friend of mine had one in 1980 but the Internet was far smaller and not much to see until 1993 when the first website came out at CERN.

Well....The way I feel right now is that there is a 30-40% chance Obama and Pelosi will lead us into the Great Depression, Part 2.

More likely to have a repeat of the recession of the late 1970s and early 80s. Most people talking about the Great Depression like Obama don't know much about that era. My mom and dad lived through that era and had their share of stories but most people under 40 don't have personal experience with a recession so now they're either in denial or terrified.

I am so thankful I moved all my investments out of the stock market to stable value last year

It's not recommended to be the stock market unless you've got five years ahead before you need the money. Older people who bet their life savings on the market weren't too bright. Better to invest in things with a lower return but more stable.

[rebeccajo 14]

Politics aside, it is hard to believe our whole economy is being guided by a guy who has never owned or even managed a small business.

I have to say I can't think of ANY prior occupation that prepares one to be President.