Gallup: Obama leads by 8 points

[Dan J 277]

Obama's significant lead over McCain almost certainly reflects the effects of the Democratic National Convention. The two presidential candidates were tied at 45% in the last Gallup Poll Daily tracking results conducted entirely before the convention began. The latest results include interviews from Tuesday through Thursday night, though most of the interviewing was conducted before Obama's acceptance speech late Thursday.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109933/Gallup-D...ead-Points.aspx

[GaryC 7]

This is a better poll. It uses likely voters rather than registered voters and has a larger sample. Not much of a convention bounce if you ask me. He should be worried if this is all he gets from his pep rally. I have a feeling that this time next week very few Obama supporters will be citing polls.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Friday, August 29, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results). Sign up for a free daily e-mail update.

This is Obama’s biggest lead since late July, when he opened up a six-point advantage following his summer speech in Berlin. A separate story looks at the Obama bounce. Other data released this morning shows that Democrats are happier now than before the convention with the choice of Joe Biden as Obama’s running mate. Overall, 74% of Democrats say their convention has unified the party.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_con...l_tracking_poll

[HAL 9000 96]

I understand your assumption of value between both polls... but since a poll takes into account an instantaneous opinion, then for that instantaneous opinion to ' count' you'd have to be registered to vote since a likely voter may not be able to put his or her opinion on a ballot.

Time will tell, Gary.

[GaryC 7]

If I understand it correctly you first have to be a registered voter before you can be a likely voter.