Calls to seat Mich. delegates to grow

[no name 1]

Thats what it looks like right now. Both candidates appeal to a core demographic, that demographic will likely vote for Hillary or Obama no matter who the candidate is.

Both candidates also have thier own unique demographics. For Hillary, it is Older voters and blue collar voters, and to an extent, hispanics. For Obama, its new voters, young voters, college educated voters, and by a large margin african american voters.

Except those older voters you quote - some ARE college educated. Oh the horrors! I expect those 'to an extent, latinos' do too. You forgot the Catholics & the white women, oh they love HC & many of them are college educated as well.

To win outright, both candidates need to appeal to the demographics of the other candidate. If Obama chooses the right VP candidate he probably has the easier battle. Hillary's unique demographic is likely to vote anyway. While much of Obama's unique demographic is likely to stay home. For Hillary to win outright, she has to not only pursade Obama's demographic to vote for her, but to actually show up to vote in November.

I think you need to read up on primary turnout.

Edited April 23, 2008 by illumine

[simple_male 1]

Yeah, cuz that's fair!

Well, giving her all the votes would also be unfair.

Sure. But Obama won't agree to any sort of a do-over, cuz he knows he won't win!

Funny that Obama didn't do very well in the most important swing states - OH, NH, PA, MI, FL, AR, NE, NM.

Not good if he hopes to beat McCain in those states.

NE (Nebraska) is a solid red state, not a swing state. Democratic candidate traditionally wins PA, but this time, he/she will need either OH or FL. If Obama is the nominee, he can perhaps win KS (Kansas, where his mother is from), WY (his cousin ####### Cheney's state), etc. But he should not choose Hillary is his running mate. Bill Richardson, Kathleen Sebilius, Chuck Hagel (if he is convinced) would be great choices for running mate.

[mawilson 2,133]

NE (Nebraska) is a solid red state, not a swing state.

Sorry - I meant NV (Nevada), not Nebraska.

[simple_male 1]

NE (Nebraska) is a solid red state, not a swing state.

Sorry - I meant NV (Nevada), not Nebraska.

Yes, that makes sense. I thought, you probably meant IA, a neighboring state of NE, but in IA Obama won. So I was wondering what state you referred to. See you also make typing error!

[mawilson 2,133]

NE (Nebraska) is a solid red state, not a swing state.

Sorry - I meant NV (Nevada), not Nebraska.

Yes, that makes sense. I thought, you probably meant IA, a neighboring state of NE, but in IA Obama won. So I was wondering what state you referred to. See you also make typing error!

Occasionally

[simple_male 1]

NE (Nebraska) is a solid red state, not a swing state.

Sorry - I meant NV (Nevada), not Nebraska.

Yes, that makes sense. I thought, you probably meant IA, a neighboring state of NE, but in IA Obama won. So I was wondering what state you referred to. See you also make typing error!

Occasionally

We all do.

[no name 1]

[HAL 9000 96]

They should just re-run the elections in MI and FL and get it over with. If they did that, Obama

would probably still keep his popular vote lead, but Hill wouldn't be too far behind.

That would be the only sensible thing to do at this point.

The result? Same dynamic we'd have if they weren't involved at all.

[no name 1]

They should just re-run the elections in MI and FL and get it over with. If they did that, Obama

would probably still keep his popular vote lead, but Hill wouldn't be too far behind.

That would be the only sensible thing to do at this point.

The result? Same dynamic we'd have if they weren't involved at all.

How do you figure? She'd be ahead in the popular vote & have more delegates.

[HAL 9000 96]

They should just re-run the elections in MI and FL and get it over with. If they did that, Obama

would probably still keep his popular vote lead, but Hill wouldn't be too far behind.

That would be the only sensible thing to do at this point.

The result? Same dynamic we'd have if they weren't involved at all.

How do you figure? She'd be ahead in the popular vote & have more delegates.

The point would be that a re-do would obviously show different results. I don't think Operation Chaos would get much of a chance to continue its course and many more voters have (using Kool-Aid terminology) jumped on the bandwagon known as learning more about the candidates.

I figure a progressive loss of votes for Hillary as a result of her consistent use certain tactics that voters grow weary of. That's how I figure it Dev.

[no name 1]

They should just re-run the elections in MI and FL and get it over with. If they did that, Obama

would probably still keep his popular vote lead, but Hill wouldn't be too far behind.

That would be the only sensible thing to do at this point.

The result? Same dynamic we'd have if they weren't involved at all.

How do you figure? She'd be ahead in the popular vote & have more delegates.

The point would be that a re-do would obviously show different results. I don't think Operation Chaos would get much of a chance to continue its course and many more voters have (using Kool-Aid terminology) jumped on the bandwagon known as learning more about the candidates.

I figure a progressive loss of votes for Hillary as a result of her consistent use certain tactics that voters grow weary of. That's how I figure it Dev.

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/index.ph...p;#entry1781758

[HAL 9000 96]

Polls, sister Dev...

Same polls that said Hillary was up +20 and you had to take away quite a lot just to reflect actual results in PA. For primaries.

Somehow I doubt November will be as these polls reflect since people will have the whole shebang in front of them:

Bush's legacy and McCain's continuation of it vs. Change (place your candidate or another).

Therefore, I also doubt that Hillary supporters will be as bratty as some have suggested in going over to McCain in November if it were him vs. Obama. Plus Republicans that will not want to continue Bush's Legacy have found it easier to support a Democrat now, so imagine November.

[no name 1]

Polls, sister Dev...

Same polls that said Hillary was up +20 and you had to take away quite a lot just to reflect actual results in PA. For primaries.

and recently, what did they say? Not 20. Have a read:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...rimary-240.html

Final: Clinton +9.4

RCP Average 04/18 - 04/21 Clinton +6.1

Therefore, I also doubt that Hillary supporters will be as bratty as some have suggested in going over to McCain in November if it were him vs. Obama. Plus Republicans that will not want to continue Bush's Legacy have found it easier to support a Democrat now, so imagine November.

You can speculate all you want, doesn't make it true though.

[HAL 9000 96]

Polls, sister Dev...

Same polls that said Hillary was up +20 and you had to take away quite a lot just to reflect actual results in PA. For primaries.

and recently, what did they say? Not 20. Have a read:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...rimary-240.html

Final: Clinton +9.4

RCP Average 04/18 - 04/21 Clinton +6.1

Therefore, I also doubt that Hillary supporters will be as bratty as some have suggested in going over to McCain in November if it were him vs. Obama. Plus Republicans that will not want to continue Bush's Legacy have found it easier to support a Democrat now, so imagine November.

You can speculate all you want, doesn't make it true though.

Truth doesn't come from sampling or average of sampling polls.

[no name 1]

Polls, sister Dev...

Same polls that said Hillary was up +20 and you had to take away quite a lot just to reflect actual results in PA. For primaries.

and recently, what did they say? Not 20. Have a read:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...rimary-240.html

Final: Clinton +9.4

RCP Average 04/18 - 04/21 Clinton +6.1

Therefore, I also doubt that Hillary supporters will be as bratty as some have suggested in going over to McCain in November if it were him vs. Obama. Plus Republicans that will not want to continue Bush's Legacy have found it easier to support a Democrat now, so imagine November.

You can speculate all you want, doesn't make it true though.

Truth doesn't come from sampling or average of sampling polls.

well, it was within 4 points of (actual) reality. Certainly not 20 points like you said.

If you think polls are a waste of time, got a better way to gauge the process? I'm sure you'll make millions with your idea.

Edited April 23, 2008 by illumine