Asian countdown

[luckytxn 2,263]

Just passing an extension will probably still damage the nation's credit rating.

Carrying a huge debt load that can be possibly defaulted on easily should damage their credit rating. To top it all off knowing they have no plans to try to salvage and live within means ever should make them not able to borrow unless huge hike in interest hikes should be mandatory. Don't be surprised if someone dies when they live irresponsibly.

[luckytxn 2,263]

No thought police. Think what you want, write what you want, even hypocritical self-contradictory things. Just don't mind if others point them out to you. We have the same freedoms you do. Carry on.

No sweat off my ballz kid. Have fun.

[scandal 951]

That's true. I suspect the markets will still consider it a non-event.

You are correct. US futures down slightly, Nikkei and Singapore are unchanged.

Americas

INDEX VALUE CHANGE OPEN HIGH LOW TIME

DJIA INDEX 12,507.00 -114.00 12,492.00 12,516.00 12,450.00 18:21

S&P 500 1,328.20 -11.80 1,330.10 1,330.20 1,321.70 18:22

NASDAQ 100 2,399.00 -29.00 2,412.00 2,412.00 2,387.00 18:22

Asia-Pacific

INDEX VALUE CHANGE OPEN HIGH LOW TIME

NIKKEI 225 10,130.00 -10.00 10,150.00 10,170.00 10,100.00 14:00

SPI 200 4,590.00 3.00 4,587.00 4,605.00 4,567.00 16:55

Edited July 24, 2011 by scandal

[웃 910]

You are correct. US futures down slightly, Nikkei and Singapore are unchanged.

Americas

INDEX VALUE CHANGE OPEN HIGH LOW TIME

DJIA INDEX 12,507.00 -114.00 12,492.00 12,516.00 12,450.00 18:21

S&P 500 1,328.20 -11.80 1,330.10 1,330.20 1,321.70 18:22

NASDAQ 100 2,399.00 -29.00 2,412.00 2,412.00 2,387.00 18:22

Asia-Pacific

INDEX VALUE CHANGE OPEN HIGH LOW TIME

NIKKEI 225 10,130.00 -10.00 10,150.00 10,170.00 10,100.00 14:00

SPI 200 4,590.00 3.00 4,587.00 4,605.00 4,567.00 16:55

Dow down 114 = down slightly? Usually it's flat or barely up one way or the other until 8:30am or so.

Down 114 seems like we could have a down 300 day tomorrow!

[scandal 951]

Dow down 114 = down slightly? Usually it's flat or barely up one way or the other until 8:30am or so.

Down 114 seems like we could have a down 300 day tomorrow!

Well it's futures trading on very thin volume.

My concern was for meltdown, panic conditions -- everyone heading for the exits. That doesn't appear to be the case. mawilson is right, at least for now Mr. Market is treating this as Washington games.

The news from Washington is not good. Latest headline I read is Harry Reid capitulating and trying to get support for a $2.5T ceiling increase combined with equal amount of spending cuts but zero revenue increase. Meanwhile Boehner is heading the House off in a completely different, though unknown direction. It's totally hopeless in DC.

[웃 910]

Latest headline I read is Harry Reid capitulating and trying to get support for a $2.5T ceiling increase combined with equal amount of spending cuts but zero revenue increase.

How do you increase revenues? Many think that cutting taxes even further would raise revenues?

[scandal 951]

How do you increase revenues? Many think that cutting taxes even further would raise revenues?

You increase revenues by either increasing the effective tax rate on a given basis of economic activity (assuming the increased rate doesn't decrease the pie), or by increasing the basis of economic activity while keeping the rate constant.

Supply-siders who propose cutting taxes to increase revenues are taking the latter notion to an extreme, namely that you can increase the economic activity pool through stimulative tax cuts. I think there is merit to that, but it all depends on where on the Laffer Curve you think we are at the moment. (And, it presumes that you agree with the concept of a Laffer curve).

With the current tax rates in place since the Bush tax cut of 2001, we're at postwar historic lows for effective tax rates. To me that means that even a supply-sider would be hard pressed to say we should lower effective rates. If one postulates (and I will) that there is a historic "reversion to the mean" about the optimal tax rate on the Laffer Curve, then clearly we are at a historic low point and need to raise taxes to return to that optimal point again.

Anyway, back to the debates in DC, what Democrats have been proposing for revenue increases is not an across the board rate increase, nor even an immediate repeal of the Bush-era tax cuts on incomes over $250K. What they're proposing is to let the Bush cuts lapse for the >$250K earners in 2013, keep them permanently for the <$250K middle-class (pretty generous middle class, imho), and to immediately repeal the lucrative loopholes and subsidies for ethanol, corporate jets, etc. There is a lot of revenue to be had there, if only Grover Norquist wasn't scaring the bejeezus out of his cowed GOP pledges for daring to think of claiming that revenue.

Grover Norquist is the devil incarnate in modern America.

[mawilson 2,133]

Down 114 seems like we could have a down 300 day tomorrow!

Or an up 300 day. Dow futures on a Sunday night are not a very good indicator of what the market will do tomorrow.

[mawilson 2,133]

What they're proposing is to let the Bush cuts lapse for the >$250K earners in 2013, keep them permanently for the <$250K middle-class (pretty generous middle class, imho), and to immediately repeal the lucrative loopholes and subsidies for ethanol, corporate jets, etc.

That would be a mistake, IMO.

[웃 910]

Or an up 300 day. Dow futures on a Sunday night are not a very good indicator of what the market will do tomorrow.

Looks like Gold is King...Hit another record...I don't see why futures on a Sunday night would be any different than futures Monday through Thursday night...

[웃 910]

Should have got me some lean hogs a few months back! Anyone stock up the barn? Spooks?

Edited July 25, 2011 by Lord Infamous

[scandal 951]

I don't see why futures on a Sunday night would be any different than futures Monday through Thursday night...

Because there's typically nil open interest on Sunday night. If you have almost no one bidding, the price they're bidding at doesn't indicate where the market sentiment will lie when the heavy market participation returns. Typically traders will close out positions on Friday and only reopen on Monday morning. Sunday night usually only counts in Asia, where it's already (their) Monday morning.

mawilson is correct on this point. I was looking at the open tonight to see if there would be pandemonium. There is not. There is also no deal in DC, or anything close to one. We still have a week till Aug 2, but the legislative vote-taking procedures in Congress (assuming we get an agreement, both chambers need to table a bill, have multiple readings and votes, pass it, get it to signature) mean we have almost no chance of an agreement prior to Aug 2.

My plan tomorrow is to sell off the remaining few long positions I have in my 401K and wait it out. I might even double-down and buy those short Treasury ETFs I've been eyeing (TBF) as a short-term play for the next few weeks.

[웃 910]

-136 now on the Dow....I am going to go with what I think and I strongly disagree with a triple digit loss on the futures on a Sunday night not being any indication of how the markets will open.

I agree that it is not even close to the end of the world being down a 100 points but I'll say that we should expect a nice sell off in the morning.

My prediction would be a test of 12,500 at the day lows which would be -181.xx. See if it holds.

-60 to +60 would be the range I call meaningless on the futures...Anything past that and you are seeing some reasoning behind the move....Just my .02!

[^_^ 5,021]

thats what i'm seeing too. everyone in washington knows if we default...we're all screwed. if a deal isn't done soon. there will be an extension. noone wants a default sitting in their lap...it will be handled.

They will be late. They needed a deal by last Friday to be on time.

Technical default will likely not occur as they will pay interest on treasuries, but other expenses will get pushed back a few days while they hammer out a "deal". I am hoping they make halliburton wait.

[웃 910]

(AP:BEIJING) Asian stock markets fell Monday after U.S. political leaders failed to reach a deal on raising Washington's debt limit that is crucial to avoiding an impending default.

Oil prices fell below $99 a barrel amid investor concern that the lack of a debt agreement could damage the economy and reduce demand for crude.

Japan's Nikkei 225 was off 0.6 percent at 10,068.6 points while China's Shanghai Composite Index declined by a similar margin to 2,754.97. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index lost 0.6 percent to 22,308.8.

"There now is the clear and present danger of a crisis," said DBS Bank in a report.

Many analysts expect U.S. leaders to reach a last-minute deal to raise the government's $14 trillion borrowing limit before an Aug. 2 deadline. But markets are watching anxiously for what tax or spending changes might be part of the settlement.

A default could mean the U.S. government could not pay all its bills starting next month, including interest and principal on Treasury bonds. That would cause shockwaves through the global economy and financial markets.

"The only thing you can be assured of over the coming hours and days is volatility as the political posturing continues in the U.S.," said Ben Potter, market strategist for IG Markets, in a report.

In China, major stocks were down Monday. The market heavyweight PetroChina Ltd., Asia's biggest oil and gas producer, declined 0.8 percent, while Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. was off nearly 1 percent.

South Korea's Kospi lost 0.6 percent to 2,156.31. Sydney and Singapore were both off by nearly 1 percent.

U.S. leaders had hoped to strike a deal Sunday to reassure investors. President Barack Obama has insisted on raising revenues, mainly through letting tax cuts for wealthier Americans expire, but Republicans want more spending cuts and have rejected higher taxes.

The dollar was largely unchanged at 78.37 yen, down slightly from Friday's 78.43. The euro also was largely unchanged at $1.438.

Benchmark oil for September delivery was down 98 cents to $98.89 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude rose rose 74 cents to settle at $99.87 on Friday.

In London, Brent crude slid 66 cents to $117.99 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange

http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897977697072790