Lynxyonok

On 6/8/2023 at 9:30 PM, fushi said:

Many of these denials happened a long time ago for a variety of reasons (not signing the form, old form version, etc.). My range, 80500-81000 was behind the other groups around it, and it is still a bit higher % untouched, but its had much more approvals this week. Hopefully someone working on the earlier cases wraps up and focuses on your group next!

There is a wave of denials during the initial submission, and there is yet another wave of denials related to RFEs.

Nowadays, 1 in 3 cases catches an RFE, and 1 in 3 those catches a denial.

Lawfully app disagrees... I will wait to see until it does. #inevitable

On 6/8/2023 at 10:30 PM, Deekol said:

I am in the same boat. May 13 and still waiting. only 16 left (10%) in my range and i am one of them. so disheartening.

I'm literally right next to you. The "expedite denied" on the Valentine's day one.

15 hours ago, Roy an Panitta said:

thanks so much for the reassurance.. i try not to quote FB because everybody there is an expert or something.. im in the same thought process as yours.. even when i did the intial reasearch the peope posting examples of the labeling said that they havent seen anything official about the requirenment to do so but had heard it was a good idea . So they did it so as not to leave anything to chance.

It's scary how in 2023 we can't even see or update our applications online.

I mean, USCIS scans every file in from the get-go.

So, it's online already.

Just not for peasants (us).

$535 paid to be denied basics.

Congratulations to everyone approved.

To everyone else (including myself), stay strong...

On 6/2/2023 at 5:16 AM, Eddie101 said:

You might be one of the first when they start June. I am May 3rd but somehow they seem to avoid that day so far;)
I think they have their chunks of files split by weeks or so sitting on their desk and you are screwed when you are at
the bottom of such a stack. As end of May filer you might be lucky to be on top of a stack.
 

There are over 3,500+ cases still piled up from pre-May 2023. And there are just as many RFE's waiting to be answered.

I'm not American by birth, and that's one part of this culture I can't accept to date: not having the courage to tell someone "no" - leaving them wondering and guessing for months after the fact instead. I mean, there are September 2021 cases still being actively adjudicated this week!

I so feel for the people going through this mental BDSM - and I'm so terrified I'm about to be one of them myself. My week's cases are 40% approved - and there are plenty of approvals from cases 2 weeks past mine...

3 hours ago, ap4295 said:

The closer it gets to when it estimates adjudication, the more nervous I get. I can't even sleep at night anymore. I would hate to have to start all over again because I made some minor mistake over a year ago

It is extremely tough. Frankly, by now realizing that VJ is a commercial entity, I am surprised there aren't any ads for psychological help, for heavens know, we (still waiting to be adjudicated) all need it by now.

It's so mind-boggling to look at people around oneself and realize that one of them might hold the power to choose whether to let you be happy or not. Remember, some phases of the process rely on offices outside of California.

Stay strong.

I've pretty much put my entire work-free life on hold, devoting it only to communication with my special other and to checking cases statuses.

...

I'm pretty sure I'm voting against every incumbent during the next cycle. For no human should go through this.

Looking at a lot of clean-up by USCIS thus far.

Seems like cases are touched sporadically, while the tail-end of remaining 2021 cases are starting to pick up denials left and right.

May cases are wavering around 30% approval rate so far, but it's very scattered.

Fortunately, I haven't noticed much activity by the "additional RFE sent" officer in our month just yet, nor by "initial and additional RFE sent" officer. Those are brutal.

Yes, after so much case-crunching, I feel like I can spot signatures of individuals. 😅

27 minutes ago, fushi said:

Of course I'm in 80500-81000 with 9 approvals in the past week and the groups around me are at 20-40... sigh... hope you all hear back soon!

 

Still scanning every day: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NMUjX2wtjfAT8p8MesJ1k-ThuO5ddH-rqNd_85GZbbo/edit?usp=sharing

We will prevail, outlast, and succeed.

And one day we are all going to meet in NYC and toast to the fact that we made it. And we will make it so much further.

Mic drop.

3 minutes ago, Roy an Panitta said:

yea add the long weekend to that statement an you'v got a complete picture.. when USCIS processed after our date we were intially confused then thought it was the way the packets were distributed amongst the agents.. Now were a little baffled an on the edge of our seats everyday checking..

    So hang in there people were so close... Man are we close... 

It was so mesmerizing.

Around 11 eastern (CSC opening timeframes), May 13th started to get touched. Around 2pm, Telegram chats reported May 16th. By business end, May 19th filers were speaking up on Facebook and whatnot.

It's like a fine toothcomb went through the pile, carefully plucking every 8th case or so.

The last time I was so on edge was during the last presidential election.

What a day.

USCIS touched pretty much every week in May today, sending hopes sky-high by mid-morning and numbing a few hearts by late afternoon as approvals rolled towards May 19th and beyond, but only for very select few.

Oh man! The face one makes when a case just one number ahead of theirs gets approved.

At the last moment on Friday, too.

That's me right now  #cliffhangerweekend

P.S. I'm starting to notice that USCIS pages become magically available after 8pm EST / weekdays or during late afternoon on Saturdays. As in, after Cali Service Center wraps up work.

10 hours ago, Mr.So said:

Is it just me or the USCIS case status page is down?

It was for a while. Up now.

19 hours ago, fushi said:

I just did a case scan thinking there wouldn't be any updates on a Saturday, but I saw 20 approvals! As Lynxyonok said, there was quite a range with NOA1s from May 2 - May 11. Makes me excited as my NOA1 date is May 11 😊

Oh boy.

First, thank you for the citation. It helps to know that people pay attention to one's work.

Here's a painful moment to acknowledge, though.

What I said wasn't a range from May 2nd... to whatnot. What I should have said (and I may or may not have yet) was, USCIS is carrying a quagmire of 11,500+ cases prior to May 2022. So, each opportunity they have to adjudicate a case has a sizeable chance of being wasted (and apologies to pre-May, 2022 files here) on a case that's not from this (May 2022) month. In fact, I see regular activity among 2021 cases with brand-new, day-old timestamps.

I am on your side; I am a May 2022 filer praying and hoping to be approved anyday now.

But.

There's a mountain-level wave of filers ahead of us with just as many hopes and prayers.

Stay strong.

Stay brave.

Remember that scene in "Patriot" where militia is asked to hold the line?

Hold it.

Just a reminder that USCIS has been expanding their approval / action ranges to the widths unseen before.

Yes, there was a case from May 11th approved in the past 48 hours.

And there was a case from September 13th, 2021, that received an RFE in the past 48 hours as well (WAC2190135252, if anyone would like to verify...)

This means that a 12-month-old case has the same chance of being acted upon as an 18-month-old one.

Overall, my earlier theory of easier cases being processed sooner than later does seem to hold true. Because 2021 ones are now getting mostly denied, but not always.

Stay patient, my friends.

Stay lucky.

50 minutes ago, fushi said:

hey everyone, i just started scanning cases today and just saw 4 approvals and 2 RFEs in the 2290077600 -2290077800 range, with no evidence of expedite! what do y'all think? is this the start of May processing? 🙏

Seems so.

Main wave is still around April teens though.

On 5/2/2023 at 5:22 AM, Eddie101 said:

It is starting to get excited after such a long wait. March has lots of cases and their processing rate is much higher now.

It's so beautiful and scary.

A few filers past May were able to get into Mexico and cross illegally. They are now with their petitioners. To what ends though?

Many more were turned around. Sometimes right at the airport.

This world just doesn't feel real at times anymore. But we press on. For those who matter to us. Because... Because. That's why.

So, as a mid-May filer, I expect the first chance of a decision around mid-July. The first chance means that USCIS takes +3+ months to review some cases, presumably those they find difficult; some linger even further.

A decision also carries a 1:3 chance of an RFE.

Here's a current recap of open cases; a disclaimer, my research is manual, so it may be delayed compared to those with auto scripts.

5 hours ago, MountainGuy said:

Is there a May 2022 WhatsApp group? I can’t find a link anywhere. Thank you. 

There's a Facebook one, but if you don't speak Tagalog, you're going to be booted very quick, personal experience 😅

Several months ago, I added my foreign fiancée as an authorized user on one of my credit cards.

The intent was for her to have access to money during the interview process as well as to prove to airlines that she does indeed have a card that tickets are bought with.

Fast-forward to now...

The bank reported to a credit agency that someone else "lives" with me.

That agency reported to my car insurance company that there is an "extra" driver.

The car insurance:

- served me with a bill, as my fiancée is now showing as residing with me despite living 8,000 miles away

- served me with a non-renewal notice, as I had exposed them to unnecessary risks

Yes, it is that archaic for companies not to realize in 2023 that:

- not every family is limited to one set of four walls

- not every adult will drive

But, as Russians say, translated, that's how it is.

Be safe, and be careful folks...

On 4/8/2023 at 3:48 PM, Obllak said:

Thank you! Daily. We usually do it ~11 CET time, but I am very sick since Sunday, so I am updating when I feel like I have a bit energy to use it for the update.

Hope you feel better - I'd post a "care" emoji" if one was available.

How are you handling "document was mailed" and "notice explaining USCIS actions was mailed" statuses? Seems like while most of those cases go into a death spiral, about 1 in 5 do come back, some even with approvals (although usually with an RFE). Thoughts?

Also, how are you catching cases being reopened?

On 3/30/2023 at 9:34 AM, meladee said:

Can you share your dataset for comparison? Or at least a little more detail on how you're doing your own calculation that results in a longer date. I have done something similar on my own that I've poked at a lot, so maybe I can poke at yours a little to see the differences.

So, it's extremely simple. All open cases divided by the fastest processing monthly speed.

E.g., I'm a mid-May filer, and the first wave of cases is about 11K ahead of me.

Looking at Q1 2023 USCIS data for support, I thus establish:

I.e., it takes a quarter to touch 8509 cases, 4 months - 11,345, 4 months and a week  -12,054, etc.

A concern though is that the approval trough is so wide. So if one isn't lucky (wave 1, 4 months out), they may be in the rearguard, 6+ months out.

On 4/8/2023 at 9:08 AM, Obllak said:

I have seen people making such big deal out of RFEs. RFE is no big deal, they just ask for extra stuff, and you just send it. Why are you terrified of it?

An even further delay.

It's proving harder to wait.

On 4/8/2023 at 3:41 PM, jgray808 said:

I see where you're coming from but don't you think that will further their backlog and potentially negatively impact the ongoing timeline?  

It will in the long run - in the short run they just need to show that changes are taking place. It's puzzling to see expedites for November 2021 cases being shot down while February 2022 cases are being approved. Something's off.

Not to mention that Q1 2023 numbers' release was delayed by 3 months - that's a new record for USCIS, the previous longest delay being half of that.

It's as if they know their new methods are going to work and they just need to survive long enough for them to get established.

In the meantime, anything goes - even denial rate is up (and cases are routinely reopened after they'd been shot down).

On 3/30/2023 at 4:04 AM, Obllak said:

If USCIS keeps this speed, I would also estimate July 2022 for you. 

USCIS is showing an average 80% processing time *historically*. You should focus more on 50% imo and taking their speed into account to get a better presenting number. 

That 50% does sound enticing.

It appears that USCIS is focusing on easier cases. I'm seeing their approval trough (the range where a case may get approved or denied) lengthen every week - it's now up to 4-5 months (an October 2021 case is as likely to be touched as a February 2022 one). Thus, the first wave of approvals is indeed riding into early February now - but there are many RFEs (1 in 3), and some of those even sit for 2+ months after the response... as if USCIS is merely riding out the time until the petitioner realizes what is up and withdraws the petition (too many withdrawals way past the expected approval timeframe).

I am guilty of having sent USCIS 2 letters of proof of additional evidence already (and I haven't been asked for any yet). I'm going to be guilty next month when I send one more (all 3 packets sent / to be sent after each new meeting with the beneficiary). Guess I'm just that terrified of a RFE or denial.