vladek15425

ok...vladek...

which month i will get interview according to your guessing....?

That is true, but it does mean that I possess something that is not found in young people such as yourself... wisdom.

As cutoff for July?

No final cutoff!

And for AF I'm still gonna stick toi 105k even if its seems crazy !

You have a wonderdul number !

October is your month, and yes you have to translate your high-shool diploma and take the original to the interview.

Keep on watching the visa bulletin

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin.html

Any idea which month the interview will be??

Sorry I'm really worried I might not get a chance

August or september 2015

why september last vladek....?

You must follow the visas bulletin to see the availibily of dv visas :

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin.html

Hey guys!

I've won the DV-2015 lottery, my CN is in the high 10***s for ASIA

Do you think I have a chance in getting an interivew?

Also when should I file form DS-260?

Please guys I'm so worried

Thanks a lot and sorry for taking your time!

Yes you have a chance for an interview !

Ds260 from 19th may

Raevsky :

I was the only one that gave Eu to 44~45.

For Europe for DV-15 my estimate of max passing CN will be 40000 plus/minus 2000. I believe regular max CN for Europe is about 45000.

I am not sure what max CN is for other regions, so I cannot estimate max passing CN for them

Wow I wanted so bad to hear from you when I saw Eu at 36300 lol

Welcome in here btw

Any comment?

Maybe let me try to explain it in detail in case you don't get what I mean. Every month KCC have to allocate visa slots into interview schedule and they did it 2 months advance, which mean they will not know what will be the outcome of that 2 months. Let say in July when KCC suppose to allocate the last set of visa slots for DV, KCC don't know July and August outcome yet, so KCC might estimate what will be the the outcome for July and August then they schedule interviews from the estimate. Chances are they might overestimate or underestimate, so if is overestimate they might need to cancel a lot of interview schedule and if they underestimate they might not able to meet the visa quota. So, what I think is that in order to minimize the impact of wrongly estimate, it need to schedule 2 months with very few selectees in order to reduce the margin of error. So, I was thinking June and July cut off is the 2 months I am talking about.

Does it make any sense?

I hear you kayend , and I agree.

Remember I said no matter what is their reason if they call current or increase cutoffs by high jumps, bargaining on special country limit or just because ''they don't care'' we been warned from the begining.

One more point, since they announce on ESC website that dv14 winner can still check their status up to 30 june, forces me to think that they didn't only minimize the errors at the first months of the process, but also they were giving a chance to the low cns for a come back !

So that they can always re squiz them back in....

Simon answered you already ! If you are from the dv14 it will be next month probably, or september at last.

If you from dv15 will be surely the same.

Good luck

Nepal:391 selectees per 1k(1~6500), 349 visa per 1k(1~5350)

At CN 10700, Nepal should already have 4200 selectees interviewed. Although it will not max out, it will reach its country quota (about 3750 visa issued)

Me and rayme came up with the same conclusion that nepal will hit the limit at 11cn range.

Yes since you are already current no need to update to kcc.

But you will have to fillup new forms after getting married and of course take with to the interview.

documents:

- Diploma

- Birth certificate

- Police certificate

- Mariage certificate

Yes those diplomas has to be in english but not your diploma since he is the principal applicant.

I would suggest to translate the bank statment just for safety!

I don't think the emails will be needed in english, but you can always get few of them translated for safety sake of it...

Meilleurs voeux de bonheur

Et bonne chance

I don't think so, because all CNs are assigned before the first interview.

So the density is also known before first interview. The density of CNs does not depend on interiew or visa issuance process.

Check on the old forum axiom sloner Topic, you will find all my fantasy theories

As well as all our agreement and disagreements, I believe me and my forum mate from dv14 and previous DVs went through all the dv aspects...

Hoepfully you will find sone ''valuable'' answers

Check for the topic for those who likes to argue stats of britsimon too.

Thanks for the links. I cannot take this as statistical data (not enough data to be statisticaly revelant), but...

...but it might be true what you are writing because if we would take the CNs from DV2014 that we know, and divide it to 5k ranges than it looks like this:

range of CNs (example: 0-5k means EU0 - EU5000) -> real # of CNs inside this range

0-5k -> 1614 CNs

5k-10k -> 1667 CNs

10k-15k -> 1626 CNs

15k-20k -> 1356 CNs

20k-25k -> 965 CNs

25k-30k -> 945 CNs

... it is decreasing. Good news for high CNs. The further we go, the more CNs is needed to issue the same amount of visas.

I wonder how many CNs are in the last 5k range

Any guess why the real # of CNs is decreasing if we go to high CNs? What is the idea of this? Why is it so?

I guess after the heavy weight countries start maxing out the density get lesser !

And also I think kcc schedules the majority in the first 10 months on the fiscal year !

britsimon...... when i will get interview notification...?

Here is one up to 2013 doesn't show any more on the official web site

FY13AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf

Mijoro : oc last year 731 .

Szym :

Simon used also 2011 succes rate and applied to dv14, to demonstrate that its indeed oversuscribed with selectees... And if I'm not mistaking he ended up gaving us an estimate that was closer to yours after cutting the extra selectees ...

My self i used the succes rate of the 3 or four months of dv14 to calculate the quotas vs cns for each regions... But it was a total flop knowing that the first months the visa issuing rate was very slow!

In february the visa rate boomed up to 5k per month, so all my calcuations collapsed.

Not saying that yours are wrong but you shoud just remember that the data is missing because of lots factors ( sloner effect, aos,late comebacks....)

Globaly yours estimates seems plausible.

And about nigeria quota I think will remain in AF since quotas don't change dramaticaly from a year to an other, and giving the the amount of af selectees for dv15 (58k) leads me to think that!

Thanks for work

not all. I did not say all.

Sloner

NA already current! at least one point for me and you

I have no idea Vladdy. I haven't studied the recent CEAC data well enough to speculate on that.

Simon :

What do say about uzbakistan? What impact will it have on EU next vb?

You have to be kidding - right???

So the theory is that the limited countries are only getting that number of selectees because the new software is detecting the fraudulent entries with such efficiency that it naturally ends up with no more than 6k last year and 5k this year. Really????

So all these big countries have a massive variation in the number of entries (which, if unlimited would affect their number of selectees), and massive cultural differences. So last year would have seen over Look - taking 2013 numbers as a guide. Nigeriahad 1.3 million entries (2 million with family) compared to 300k for Nepal (500k with family) . Nigeria (where lying is culturally acceptable) ends up with 6043 selectees in 2014 and Nepal (very low denial rates) 6082. You don't think that sounds like those entries were limited based on an artificial parameter (actually two parameters - max selectees per country, and max total family per country) as opposed to fraud detection?

OK - that is two regions. Let's look at 2015 and one region. From previous statistics we can see the Cameroon would probably have had around 160k entries this year (plus family) and Liberia would have had 80k. But both countries end up with 5000 selectees. That is EXACTLY 5000. Meanwhile Ghana which would have had over 900k entries (but has an incredibly low family ratio of 1:0.18) based on previous years only gets 3381.

This doesn't all look artificially limited to you? COME ON! It is not to do with increased fraud detection it is OBVIOUSLY an artificial limit - as further explained by the density of selectees for these countries in the early numbers (because under the Sloner theory the fraudsters would have been weeded out all over the selectee ranges.

Sloner This cant be you

Yeah so not him lolol

He says its because simon hahaha

I think frank gave a good guess for next month !

If Russia win the World Cup, the regions will current

Champions League final is very boring

Ok sloner you won lol

Russian champion ! Now make it go current

I think nigeria will hit the wall soon! So gives us more hope for the rest of AF.

I must say that this dv14 is an aweful experience ... For all of us