Jeffrey S

CSC approved 4 yesterday which is encouraging but three of the four filers were from December, wow talk about out of order that is extreme!

It is good to see signs of life from CSC though!!

Hello Jeffrey S.

Yes, it was approved, they notified my fiance too thru txt and email.

Normally it goes to NVC very quickly and then to the embassy within a couple of weeks from what I have seen. I would be vigorously tracking it to see where it is. They should at least be able tell you if it has ben sent to the NVC yet.

Have you checked your status on the USCIS website to see if your petition was approved?

Wouldn't it be nice to be able to tell your Congressman or Senator exactly how many days you can expect your petition to be delayed according to the USCIS's own published figures on the CSC slowdown? Well, now you can!

In part of my never ending quest to get to analyze the USCIS's published data and interpret it in meaningful ways, I have created a spreadsheet that can calculate one's expected NOA2 date based on seven different hypothetical scenarios. I believe this is a very useful tool for those who are working with congressional offices, as I recommended in my previous post. Though the hypothetical scenarios are somewhat crude, they should give you a sense of why we need to fight to get the CSC back-on-track in terms of processing I-129Fs.

Directions:

1. Download the excel spreadsheet I have prepared here. (Note: this spreadsheet also includes all the data I prepared for my CSC data analysis thread)

2. Make sure it is open to the "projected delays" tab.

3. Enter the date of your NOA1 in the yellow box at the top. (Note: this will only work through NOA1s issued through December, 2012)

4. Look in awe at the potentially catastrophic effects on our petitions if this slowdown continues.

How It Works:

I've left all of my calculations plainly visible for those who are interested. But for those who do not want to reverse engineer it, the spreadsheet works as follows: It simply takes the date you input and assumes that your petition submitted on that date will be completed once all other applications still pending at the time of your submission have been completed. For each of the seven scenarios provided, it then counts down completions per day (using the USCIS's published rates through January, 2013 and then my hypothetical rates thereafter) until the app has been completed and then reports the completion dates to the top grid for your viewing pleasure.

Limitations:

1. This spreadsheet assumes that, on average, petitions will be processed serially in the order they are received. Obviously that assumption still leaves room for error with any individual petition, so the date provided is a rough estimate.

2. For simplicity's sake, this spreadsheet does not distinguish between weekends and weekdays as far as the service center's completions per day is concerned. This shouldn't drastically effect the estimated completion date, but it may slightly (+/- 2-3 days) in certain cases.

3. The estimated completion scenarios are deliberately crude. They start by assuming that the 537 completions per month rate of January 2013 continued through February and March (in truth, I suspect the February and March rates were likely even lower based on Igor's list data, but I'm using only published data for the spreadsheet). They then assume a flat rate (either the median or fast rate) begins at the specified month and continues indefinitely without change. For now, they do not try to capture the undulating nature of the processing rates over time (though I will have an updated version that does so in the near future); rather, they just provide baselines for worst-case, best-case, and middle-ground scenarios.

4. I'm not perfect and there may be errors somewhere in there. I didn't test every date myself. Please report any errors you find.

5. Note that some July filers may see that they should have been processed by now according to the worst-case scenario data. Yes, I know. That's not an error. It just means that February and March completion rates were likely much worse than we know as of yet and that even the worst case scenarios here are optimistic in a sense.

My next project will be to make some graphs that extrapolate these calculations to truly show the devastating effect of the slowdown on the expected completion dates of those who filed in the fall. So if you find any mistakes in this version, please let me know before I build upon it further.

All I can say is that you never cease to amaze me with all your fact and figures! And thank you for sharing!

I only have one question.... Is your senator a democrat?

1 Corinthians 13:4

Love has long patience, is kind; love is not emulous [of others]; love is

not insolent and rash, is not puffed up,

5 does not behave in an unseemly manner, does not seek what is its own,

is not quickly provoked, does not impute evil,

6 does not rejoice at iniquity but rejoices with the truth,

7 bears all things, believes all things, hopes all things, endures all things.

8 Love never fails;

that is truth

I agree but I love my fiance not the government!!

Why would visa petitions be kept anywhere that they could be destroyed by water? It makes absolutely no sense to me. There is not one file in my office building that could be destroyed by water from a plumbing issue. Ridiculous.

I suspect from a fire supression system.

Great idea Jeffery S.. And the email of the USCIS director were all flooding is ....donald.w.neufeld@uscis.dhs.gov

Has anyone ever gotten a response from this guy??

Great, I believe they are feeling the pressure. I sent a letter to Congressman Billy Long last week, I was contacted by his office the same day, they said they would look into it and get back with me. Keep writing those letters and making those phone calls!

You are absolutely right it is rediculous that this is the way the government chooses to treat its citizens and customers I might add, but it is not in the least surprising. Hopefully eveyone invoved in this process will remember this when it comes time to vote, just remember which party is pro big governmet and vote as far opposite as possible. If these service centers were privatized it would be far less expensive and much more productive! Just my thoughts.

It might be beneficial if someone representing all the members of visa journey wrote him a well thought out letter to inquire about the slow down and to inquire as to when it will be back to normal processing times, I would think someone representing several hundred people may get his attention.

I do not plan to hang on anything until the announcement is posted on a government site. USCIS states goal of 5 months and average national processing time is 10 months. On a positive note, the VJ site shows CSC down to 194 days.

I don't think the heading of this post is appropriate- USCIS did not make such an announcement......

The 194 days is incorrect, the actual number is probably between 240 and 270 from what I have seen.

Welcome, I too have a Russian fiance and have read lots of comentary about the interview process at the Moscow embassy, I have not heard anything negative regarding Moscow, in fact most have been rather complimentary of the staff and the process. Most of the members on here will tell you not to use an attorney and it may not be necessary, however I found a Russian woman (attorney) in New York that I really like and she has been so helpful! It has also been very helpful that she can speak Russian with my fiance regarding the important details of this process, it has definitely smoothed out the bumbs for me. If you are interested I will provide you with her contact info. But to answer your question I think you will be fine.

I can't answer your question, you have been waiting since April???? Has there been any communication from VSC as to why?

They don't anticipate any delays due to closure??? Like everything is smooth sailing and right on time at CSC!!!!!

I am curious if a representative of VJ, representing several hundred petitioners would contact a manager at CSC if they would provide any information on the current status and when the K-1 process will pick up??

Pretty much sums it up!! It would be different if they would provide a little communication to let us know what the hold up is and if they have a solution, but they can't even manage to update their site. What great customer service! They would never survive in the private sector!

I think this is fantastic news for all of us waiting for CSC, obviously they realized there was a problem and have taken corrective action to get back on track!! Exciting!

That is the conclusion I came to as well. I see alot of complaints on here about the slow processing times at VSC, I believe they are nearly identical with CSC right now, the onle difference is that VSC is churning out NOA2's while CSC is at a virtual stand still.

I am curious if anyone here can explain to me why there is such a large discrepancy between Igor's list and the VJ processing time estimate for CSC, if you look at Igor's list at the last 15 (or more) approved it is clear that CSC is somewhere past the half way point in July. However if you click on processing times on this site it indicates CSC is processing the first week of October. just curious if one is more accurate than the other. Igor's list seems to be more accurate because I can see more detailed information.

Thank you.

I would suggest you click on immagration timelines then on Igor's list, Seems to be an accurate reflection of who is being approved and when. Doesn't look to encouraging for CSC filers!

I think if you check igors list it seems to much more accurately reflect what is going on regarding CSC aprrovals. Almost nothing!! looks like they approved one VJ member this week where VSC approved over 15 looks like they are almost at a standstill.

OMG!!! I'm in tears. just got the email from USCIS! got that long awaited NOA2 at last! after more than 6 months! Thank GOD! we are finally almost there.

Congratulations!! Great to see CSC doing something!

It seems the passport issue has been well covered and something you will need to overcome, I can tell you that I am currently in Mexico with my fiance from Russia, I did not want to spend our vacation in frozen Russsia! I did a lot of research on the different optoins such as Jamaica and the Bahamas, etc.. they dont require a visa for Russians citizens however all the flights I found had over night stays or long layovers in other countries, also they always involved a flight change in Miami which would involve a transit visa for her from the US and I definitely didnt want to get involved in that. However Mexico has relaxed their requirements for Russian citizens to visit, she was able to fill out an online application, get instant approval, print it out and she was done. Also there are direct flights from Moscow to Cancun on Transaero which made the trip much easier for her. It wasn't cheap I can assure you but it is a great alternative to Russia in January! One of the many all inclusive resorts are the way to go. Hope this helps.